USDCHF – Who Wins Bulls or Bears?

USDCHF – Who Wins Bulls or Bears?

Chart Of The Day

Pity the poor SNB. No matter what the Swiss National Bank does, the Swissie refuses to go down. Even with the biggest negative in the world, the Swissie is near multi-month lows as risk aversion trumps the tempting yield spread. Today news that North Korea is about to launch another ICBM test sent the markets into a tizzy and USDCHF back below 9650 before the pair finally found some support.

North Korea remains a nuisance on the global stage, but its hard to believe that China would allow its vassal state to trigger a Third World War and upend the global economy. Still, the regime of NK is the most radical and unpredictable in the world and one of its provocations may get out of hand.

However, assuming the NK risk is pacified, the Swissie could see a furious relief rally especially if US data proves to be stronger than forecast. US Retail Sales are expected to be a little softer than the month prior at 0.3% vs. 0.6%. But if they beat their mark USDCHF could break out above the .9750 level and establish a clear bottom from which it could mount a rally towards parity.

Today’s Trades 09.11.2017 – USDJPY, USDCHF, CADCHF, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With U.S. yields up more than 4bp, the dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning. Investors are relieved that Florida skirted major damage from Hurricane Irma and according to North Korea TV, they may be ready to meet with U.S. officials. As a result, USD/JPY is this morning’s best performing currency. It has been hit hard in the past 2 months and due for a short squeeze. While the Canadian dollar continued to power higher, testing the 1.21 level AUD and NZD are lagging behind. Sterling is also trading firmly ahead of this week’s monetary policy announcement. Last but not least the euro is holding 1.20 but it support looks fleeting.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
+CAD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD
-JPY, -CHF
MILDLY +AUD, +NZD
MLDLY -EUR

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy USDCHF at market now 0.9491, Stop at 0.9461, Target 0.9511
2. Buy CADCHF at market now 0.7843, Stop at 0.7813, Target 0.7863
3. Sell EURGBP at market now 0.9088, Stop at 0.9118, Target 0.9068
4. Back in USDJPY long at 108.52, Stop, 108.22, Target 108.72

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8466267406414888962

Today’s Trading Plan for 08.24.2017 – USDCHF, AUDUSD, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

As Federal Reserve officials and central bankers from around the world gather at Jackson Hole for their annual summit, the U.S. dollar is enjoying a firmer tone. We have a few pieces of U.S. data due for release today (jobless claims and existing home sales) but none of them are expected to have a significant impact on the greenback. Yellen and Draghi don’t speak until tomorrow so it could be a quiet day in the FX market with an upward bias for the buck. U.S. yields are slightly higher but politics are also driving the dollar’s recovery with Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell offering a conciliatory tone to President Trump. The best performing currency this morning is USDJPY but GBPUSD is also performing well as it bounces off 1.28. The commodity currencies are under pressure as the U.S. dollar recovers but CAD still manages to hold its gains, pressuring USD/CAD lower.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-AUD
-NZD
+CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD. +CAD
-AUD, -NZD, -CHF, -JPY
neutral GBP and EUR

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell AUDUSD at market now 0.7895, Stop 0.7935, Target 0.7875
2. Buy USDCHF at market now 0.9646, Stop at 0.9606, Target 0.9666
3. Buy EURAUD at market now 1.4943, Stop at 1.4903, Target 1.4963

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan for 07.25.2017 – NZDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With 24 hours to go before FOMC, USD/JPY continues to recover its losses. But today is not a day marked by USD strength as the greenback is unchanged to slightly lower versus EUR, AUD and GBP. This morning’s better than expected German IFO reported helped stave off further losses for EURO and the consumer confidence report will be in focus during the North American trading session. USD/CAD is still hovering near 1.25, AUD is extending its gains ahead of tonight’s CPI right while NZD is underperforming on the back reports of a deadly cow disease affecting one of the herds. Trading should be relatively subdued as traders count down to FOMC.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-NZD
-CHF
+EUR
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

-NZD, -CHF, -JPY
+AUD
mildly +USD, +EUR
neutral GBP, CAD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at market now 0.9294, Stop at 0.9333, Target 0.9273
2. Place Order to Sell USDCHF at 0.9470, Stop at 0.9510, Target 0.9450

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.17.2017 – USDJPY, EURGBP, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It should be no surprise to our members that after last week’s disappointing U.S. economic reports, USD/JPY remains under pressure. U.S. rates are down and we continue to believe that USD/JPY will drop to 112. Yet the greenback is trading slightly higher versus the euro, sterling and commodity currencies as investors worry whether about whether Draghi will disappoint in the same way as Yellen. Strong moves last week also invited profit taking which is the main reason why most of the major currency pairs are trading lower. While we think Draghi will suggest a less dovish posture, it is clear that the market doubts that possibility going into the rate decision. Last night’s stronger Chinese data failed to have a lasting impact on the commodity currencies. This morning we have the US Empire State survey and Canadian existing home sales scheduled for release.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+AUD
+EUR
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CHF
-USD, -JPY
mildly -CAD
neutral GBP, NZD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell USDJPY at market now 112.49, Stop at 112.99 Target 112.19
2. Place Order to EUR/GBP at 0.8769, Stop at 0.8709, Target 0.8805
3. Place Order to Sell USD/CHF at 0.9630, Stop at 0.9670, Target 0.9605

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 06.21.2017 – USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Right out of the gate we’ve seen big moves in currencies. GBP/USD soared nearly 60 pips within a matter of minutes after Bank of England member Haldane said the risk of tightening too early has fallen. USD/JPY also popped in response, erasing earlier losses in GBP/JPY. We don’t think the rally will last and like fading the move as Carney pushes back against MPC hawks and Brexit provides ongoing uncertainty. In contrast all 3 commodity currencies are trading lower this morning but the consolidative price action in NZD tell us that traders are waiting for RBNZ. There’s not much to say about EURUSD which bounced off its May low near 1.1110. Light data flow means traders should take their cue from yields and news headlines.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-Sell GBP on rallies
-CAD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

-GBP
-CAD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell USDCHF at market at 0.9740, Stop at 0.9790, Target 0.9710
2. Place Order to Sell CADCHF at 0.7335, Stop at 0.7385, Target 0.7305
3. Place Order to Buy EURGBP at 0.8767, Stop at 0.8717, Target 0.8797

All pending orders canceled by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT
All open day trades closed by 4PM NY / 20 GMT

Today’s Trading Plan 06.20.17 – USDCHF and EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The big story this morning is the drop in the British pound courtesy of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The BoE head expressed concerns about Brexit and wage growth, repeating the worries he shared at the release of the Quarterly Inflation Report. Unlike some of his peers he believed it would take a few months before a recovery in wage growth supports spending, making it clear that he does not support an immediate hike.

With no comments on monetary policy from Vice Chair Fischer, the U.S. dollar is struggling to extend its gains. Rosengren and Kaplan speak again today and we already know that Kaplan feels the Fed should be cautious about raising rates. Evans who spoke last night said it remains to be seen if there’ll be 2 or 3 rate hikes in 2017. Although Dudley and Yellen have been pounding the table about the strength of the economy, it is clear that other FOMC members are less enthusiastic. Rosengren’s comments will be interesting but he is NOT a voting member of the FOMC this year. If USD/JPY breaks below 111.40, we could see a steeper slide down to 111.00.

EUR, AUD and NZD are relatively quiet this morning whereas the Canadian dollar is finally responding to the drop in oil prices. Crude is down another 1.8% this morning after falling nearly 2% yesterday. New Zealand has a dairy auction this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-CAD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -CAD, -CHF
mildly -AUD and -NZD
neutral JPY

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

Look to Buy USDCHF at 0.9711, Stop at 0.9661, Target 0.9741
Look to Buy EURGBP at 0.8785, Stop at 0.8735, Target 0.8815

Today’s Trading Plan 05.24.2017 – AUD/NZD, NZD/CHF, USD/CHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We have a busy day ahead of us for the Canadian dollar and the U.S. dollar. The morning starts with the Bank of Canada rate decision and that will be followed by the FOMC minutes in the afternoon. The greenback is trading with a slight bid and the same is true for the Canadian dollar. GBP made a run for 1.30 again last night, backed off that level and is still struggling to figure out which way it wants to break (we think the break will be to the downside). The best performing currency this morning is the New Zealand dollar which is benefitting from last night’s strong trade balance and anti-AUD flows which is driven by Moody’s downgrade of Chinese debt. We think NZD will outperform and USD will stay bid ahead of the Fed minutes, which is why we are +USDCHF and +NZDCHF.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

NZD strength
USD strength
CHF weakness

*Currencies we plan on day trading and the direction*
*These could change during the day, but for now

We will be trading around these themes –

+NZD
-AUD
+USD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+NZD
-AUD
mildly +USD
mildly -EUR, -GBP, -JPY
neutral CAD

:triangular_flag_on_post: *Starting Trades*

OPENED AT MARKET NZDCHF Buy
ENTRY – 0.68659
STOP – 0.68159
TAKE PROFIT – 0.68959

CLOSED EURUSD Sell
ENTRY – 1.11824
EXIT – 1.11887
RESULT -6.3 pips

OPENED AT MARKET AUDNZD Sell
ENTRY – 1.06297
STOP – 1.06797
TAKE PROFIT – 1.05997

Today’s Trading Plan for 05.15.2017 – EUR/GBP, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as investors continued to sell the greenback following last week’s disappointing retail sales and inflation reports. Expectations for Fed tightening got ahead of themselves and the lack of support from 2 very important pieces of U.S.. data has turned 114.35 into a near term for USD/JPY. A return to 113 appears likely unless U.S. rates suddenly gain traction. The euro is eyeing 1.10 again, USD/CAD has peaked for the time being, GBP is up as well but struggling to extend its gains after a dovish BoE. AUD and NZD were driven higher as investors shrugged off mixed local and Chinese data.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

USD weakness
EUR strength
CAD strength
CHF strength

*Currencies we plan on day trading and the direction*
*These could change during the day, but for now

We will be trading around these themes –

+EUR
-USD
+CHF
+CAD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+EUR, +CHF, +AUD, +NZD, +CAD
-USD, -JPY
neutral GBP

:triangular_flag_on_post: *Starting Trades*

OPENED AT MARKET USDCHF Sell
ENTRY – 0.99797
STOP – 1.00303
TAKE PROFIT – 0.99503

OPENED AT MARKET EURGBP Buy
ENTRY – 0.84822
STOP – 0.84322
TAKE PROFIT – 0.85122

OPENED AT MARKET USDJPY Sell
ENTRY – 113.435
STOP – 113.935
TAKE PROFIT – 113.135

What We are Trading Today (April 24, 2017) – USDCHF Trade

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the euro remains bid and risk is still on, we have not seen the continuation that we had hoped for after the French election last night. With that in mind, the euro hasn’t pulled back materially yet so the outlook is still positive. We still like AUD, NZD and USDCAD could be a fade again at 1.35

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

USDJPY trying to hold 110

EURUSD trying to hold onto gains

GBP weaker

CAD weaker but nearing resistance

AUD and NZD strength

*Currencies we plan on day trading and the direction*

*These could change during the day, but for now

We will be trading around these themes –

-CHF
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

These will change after US data

+USDJPY, +AUD, +NZD

-CHF,

neutral GBP, EUR

rally up to and looking to fade 1.35 USDCAD

*Starting Trades*

Pending Order

USDCHF Sell-limit 0.99600
STOP 1.01100
TAKE PROFIT 0.99300

USDCHF to Test 1.0100

USDCHF to Test 1.0100

Chart Of The Day

The U.S. dollar traded sharply higher against all of the major currencies today as the fundamentals we have been highlighting returned as drivers for the currency. On Tuesday when the greenback tanked for the seventh day in a row versus the Japanese Yen we said hawkish Fed speak and stronger data meant that further losses were limited. Today, a series of healthy U.S. economic reports followed by a positive Beige book carved out a bottom for the U.S. dollar. The currency’s rebound was then magnified by optimistic comments from Janet Yellen. U.S. rates also shot higher with 10 year yields rising nearly 10bp, validating the reversal in market sentiment. So unless Donald Trump attacks the dollar again on Friday, we’ve seen the end to a month of losses in the greenback. With oil prices rising, inflation ticked up in the month of December. Industrial production is also up and according to the Beige book, a number of Fed districts reported tightening job market, higher wages and increased inflation. Even Janet Yellen admitted that they are close to reaching their goals

Technically, USDCHF is still in a downtrend but with the dollar rising strongly against all other currencies, we think its only a matter of time before this pair catches up. Resistance is right above 1.01 (near 1.0110) according to the 4 hour chart included so we’ve set the profit target on our long trade just under 1.01 at 1.0097.

USD/CHF – Headed for 1.05

USD/CHF – Headed for 1.05

Chart Of The Day

USD/CHF – Headed for 1.05

The U.S. dollar climbed to its strongest level in 5 years versus the Swiss Franc. The greenback has been performing extremely well ahead of next month’s monetary policy meeting and with 3 weeks to go before the Fed meeting we expect the dollar to extend its gains. The Swiss Franc on the other hand is benefitting from the SNB’s continued attempts to talk down the currency. With the ECB expected to increase stimulus next week, the SNB is worried that declines in EUR will drive the CHF lower through EUR/CHF flows. The Eurozone is Switzerland’s number one trading partner and a stronger Franc would be detrimental to trade activity. So with actions from the Fed and SNB expected to drive USD/CHF higher, we expect the currency pair to test 1.05.

Technically, 1.05 is also the next major resistance level for USD/CHF. Taking a look at the monthly chart the currency pair has broken above parity (1.0), which is not only a psychological significant level but is also not far from where the 100-month SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010 to 2011 decline converge. This level is now support. There is some short term resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0260 but once that level is cleared, 1.05 should be the next target for the pair.