Today’s Trades 04.03.2018 – EURUSD, USDCHF, CHFJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While Monday’s sell-off in U.S. stocks carried over to Asian and European equities, it did not translate into further losses for currencies. USD/JPY is back above 106 and trading higher against the euro and sterling. Stronger than expected UK PMI manufacturing numbers failed to lift GBP and we think this is a sign of weakness rather than strength. The second quarter has begun and many traders are back from their Easter holidays though participation is still less than usual. The most important event risk this week will be Friday’s non-farm payrolls report so investors will be looking at all of the leading indicators ahead of the release. However there are no major U.S. economic reports today so between the positive open suggested by U.S. stock futures and the rise in 10 year Treasury yields, we could see further U.S. dollar strength vs. European currencies. Gains in USD/JPY appear to be capped below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour charts near 106.30 for the time being. The commodity currencies are outperforming with AUD supported by the central bank’s outlook for faster growth in 2018. They still maintain a steady policy stance. New Zealand has a dairy auction later this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+AUD
-EUR
-CHF
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +AUD, +NZD
-EUR, -CHF, -GBP
mildly +CAD
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.2293, Stop at 1.2321, Target 1.2265
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.6000, Stop at 1.6028, Target 1.5972
3. Sell CHFJPY at 111.01, Stop at 111.29, Target 110.73
4. Buy USDCHF at .9567, Stop at .9539, Target .9595

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.20.2018 – USDCAD, USDCHF, CADJPY, GBPUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After yesterday’s sharp sell-off in stocks, we are seeing risk appetite return this morning with the U.S. dollar trading higher against most of the major currencies. USD/JPY is at 106.50 and EUR/USD is holding above 1.2300 but support looks tenuous as the dollar could add to its gains ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. Sterling took a hit from weaker CPI and could succumb to stronger selling than the euro. The commodity currencies are holding on strong with USD/CAD eyeing a move to 1.3050 and beyond. The Australian dollar is one of the strongest performers for no reason other than the fact that it experienced heavy selling over the past few days, so a healthier reversal is likely. The New Zealand dollar is lagging behind as investors worry about this morning’s dairy auction and tomorrow afternoon’s RBNZ rate decision.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD
+AUD
-GBP
-EUR
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD, +AUD
-GBP, -EUR, -CHF, -JPY
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy CADJPY at 81.40, Stop at 81.12, Target 81.68
2. Buy USDCHF at .9528, Stop at .9500, Target .9556
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4030, Stop at 1.4058, Target 1.4002
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3068, Stop at 1.3096, Target 1.3040

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.26.2018 – EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the North American trading session lower against all of the major currencies but it is quietly recovering its losses, particularly against the Japanese Yen as U.S. stocks point to a positive open. Thanks to the early performance of U.S. equity futures and the overnight rallies in European and Asian stocks, today should be a day of improved risk appetite. This could benefit all of the yen pairs and drive the Swiss Franc lower. It should also be positive for risk currencies like the EUR and AUD but on a technical basis, the rallies are meeting resistance which suggests that the USD could lead the gains rather than the demand for risk. We had initially sold EURGBP but exited on Brexit noise. Corbyn’s comments that the UK is still in the dark over May’s Brexit plans and will not be joining a customs union after Brexit is a threat to the currency’s earlier gains. The euro is at the upper end of its 4 day range and Mario Draghi’s speech at 9AM NY could affect how the currency trades. The commodity currencies are also beginning to give up their earlier gains as well with CAD and AUD the weakest performers. Today’s U.S. new home sales report is not expected to have a significant impact on currencies as investors wait for Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-JPY
-CHF
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-CHF, -JPY, AUD, -NZD,
mildly +EUR
mildly -GBP, -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy USDCHF at .9344, stop at .9315, Target .9372
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7861, Stop at .7889, Target .7833
3. Buy EURJPY at 131.68. Stop at 131.40. Target 131.96

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.22.2018 – EURAUD, NZDUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the Japanese Yen is trading higher against across the board today, the U.S. dollar is down against all of the major currencies except for sterling which fell on the back of weaker GDP. This divergence between the yen and the greenback reflects the battle in risk. After selling off sharply in the last 2 hours of trade, U.S. stocks futures are pointing to only a modestly lower open. Asian stocks took a hit but European stocks have stabilized. Given the recent vol in stocks it is too early to tell whether equities will resume their slide in North American trade. Meanwhile the best performing currencies this morning are comm dollars with AUD leading the gains. Canadian retail sales are scheduled for release this morning and we are seeing profit taking on long USD/CAD positions ahead of this key report. The euro has shrugged off a softer IFO report and while USD/JPY is in a clear downtrend. Jobless claims are also on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -GBP
+AUD, +NZD, +CHF
neutral JPY, mildly +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy NZDUSD at .7333, stop at .7305, Target .7361
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5710, Stop at 1.5738, Target 1.5682
3. Sell USDCHF at .9377, Stop at .9405, Target .9349
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7819, Stop at .7791, Target .7847

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.01.2018 – USDCAD, EURUSD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The positive momentum generated by Wednesday’s FOMC statement carried over to Asia and Europe where investors continued to drive the U.S. dollar higher against all of the major currencies. This morning, the greenback is struggling to extend its gains particularly against the JPY as the pair nears 109.77 (Jan 26 high) resistance. The EURO continues to be one of the strongest currency, holding well above 1.2400 and aiming for a move above 1.2450. GBP is also up which surprising considering given softer manufacturing PMI. The commodity currencies are the weakest AUD leading the slide. The Canadian dollar is holding up best but each day it manages to stay above 1.2300, the greater chance of a bottom followed by a strong move upwards. Jobless claims and the ISM non-manufacturing reports are scheduled for release this morning but the focus will be on non-farm payrolls.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+USD
-AUD
-CHF
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD
-AUD, -CAD, -CHF, -JPY
mildly +GBP, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2325, Stop at 1.2297, Target 1.2353
2. Buy USDCHF at .9335, Stop at .9307, Target .9363
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.3436, Stop at 1.2408, Target 1.2464

*EURCAD closed for +21 and NZDUSD for -6

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.31.2018 – USDCHF, EURJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning but thanks to President Trump who did not cause any major disruptions to the market, the sell-off is modest. High beta currencies continue to perform well with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains. There’s no specific explanation for the 1% jump outside of AUD/NZD selling after softer Australian CPI. Euro is trading above 1.2450 thanks to stronger German employment numbers and while GBP is also trading higher, it lags behind following a report that the EU rejected the city of London’s post Brexit deal for financial services. The Canadian dollar is trading firmly ahead of GDP but all eyes are on the FOMC today. It will be Yellen’s last and while the greenback is on its back foot, the currency’s slide should be limited by the prospect of a more hawkish outlook. Beware of month-end flows and the upcoming ADP and Chicago PMI reports.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-JPY
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+EUR
-JPY, -CHF
mildly +USD, +AUD, +NZD
mildly -GBP
neutral CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCHF at .9330, Stop at .9302, Target .9358
2. Buy EURJPY 135.47 at 135.19, Target 135.75
3. Buy EURGBP at .8795, Stop at .8767, Target .8823

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.27.2017 – EURUSD, USDCHF, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All major markets are back online today but trading should still be quiet with many senior dealers off for the entire week. The U.S. dollar is on its back foot, trading lower against all of the major currencies including the Japanese Yen. A decline in U.S. yields and the prospect of a weaker consumer confidence report is underpinning the currency. Euro on the other hand is eyeing 1.19 and we think it could test and break this level in today’s in low liquidity trade. Sterling is also above 1.34 but the best performers continue to be AUD and NZD which have found their way to fresh 2 month highs. Risk appetite, higher commodity prices and end of year profit taking are the main drivers behind the latest moves. The Canadian dollar is also pressing higher and this move has meant USD/CAD has not seen a rally in 6 trading days. However with oil prices falling this morning, the pair could find support near this month’s low of 1.2624.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+CHF
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-JPY
mildly +NZD, +CAD
neutral USD and USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at market now .9890, Stop at .9918, Target .9862
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1891, Stop at 1.1863, Target 1.1919
3. Buy CHFJPY at 114.49, Stop at 114.21, Target 114.77

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.11.2017 – USDCHF, CADJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies this morning and the losses could accelerate if U.S. yields fall further from current levels. There are no major economic reports on the calendar but this is an exceptionally busy week with 4 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving releases, so we would not be surprised to see pre-positioning. The best performing currency is the New Zealand dollar which jumped over 1% on the selection of a new central bank governor. However the move is overdone and NZD fundamentals remain weak so we have chosen not to join this trade. 10 year UK yields are down more than 5bp this morning and GBP is flat. This misalignment leads us to believe that GBP will fall, catching up to the move in yields as the FX market realizes what the bond market already knows which is that the second round of Brexit negotiations could be tougher than the first.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-USD
-CAD
+CHF
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -CAD,
+EUR, +CHF, +NZD, +JPY, +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at market now .9905, Stop at .9933, Target .9877
2. Sell CADJPY at market now 88.20, Stop at 88.48, Target 87.92
3. Buy EURGBP at .8813, Stop at .8785, Target .8841

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.05.2017 – USDCHF, AUDCAD, CADJPY, GBPUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the U.S. dollar’s performance this morning – the greenback is flat vs. the JPY, up vs. GBP and down vs. EUR and the commodity currencies. The initial uptick in U.S. yields suggests that we may not see additional weakness in the greenback until the ISM report but it remains under pressure for the time being. Although this may be a big week for the buck and today’s non-manufacturing ISM could be meaningful, last night’s Australian data and Reserve Bank rate decision along with Brexit talks had a greater impact on currency trade. While the EU says they are ready to restart talks, Britain is still dealing with their Irish border issue. The Australian dollar on the other hand experienced its strongest 1 day rise in more than a week thanks to stronger data and a less dovish RBA. NZD is in play this morning with a dairy auction on the calendar. The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow and with widespread improvements in Canadian data, we believe the loonie will trade higher ahead of the rate decision. Our strongest view is CAD strength and GBP weakness today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+CAD
-GBP
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+CAD, +CHF, +EUR
-GBP, -JPY
mildly +AUD (may be overextended today)
mildly -USD
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. sell AUDCAD at .9659, Stop at .9687, Target .9631
2. Buy CADJPY at 89.01, Stop at 88.73, Target 89.29
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.3419, Stop at 1.3447, Target 1.3391
4. Sell USDCHF at .9843, Stop at .9871, Target .9815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.01.2017 – USDCHF, EURGBP, AUDUSD, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar this morning because global yields are sharply lower across the board. Political troubles in the U.S, Germany and Britain are making investors weary of the recent rallies. In the U.S., there was alot of confusion about the tax reform deal when a tax increase trigger was ruled as invalid, pushing a vote to Friday. It is still too close to call and investors will be watching the headlines carefully for any updates on the tax vote. Debates begin at 11AM NY Time. In Germany, Angela Merkel is trying to convince the SPD to form a grand coalition but the head of the SPD said he has not given a green light for another coalition as Germany’s European policy must change. In Britain, the Irish border remains a thorny issue and the hard right DUP party has threatened to withdraw their support for May if she offers any compromises on the border. As a result, USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD are all trading lower. The commodity currencies are a bit higher but also giving up on their rallies. Looking ahead, CAD GDP and employment are due for release along with US ISM manufacturing numbers – we are bearish on all fronts.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
+GBP
+JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -CHF, -AUD
+GBP, +JPY
neutral NZD
mildly -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at .9824, Stop at .9852, Target .9796
2. Sell EURGBP at market now .8812, Stop at .8840, Target .8784
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7566, Stop at .7594, Target .7538
4. Back into EURJPY at 133.69, Stop at 133.97, Target 133.41

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 10.09.2017 – EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With U.S., Canadian and Japanese markets closed today, it should continue to be a quiet trading session. While the U.S. dollar is holding onto its gains versus the Japanese Yen, it is losing ground versus the European and commodity currencies. The only currency on the move today is sterling, which is supported by Prime Minister May’s upcoming Brexit Speech. May is expected to speak around 14:30 GMT and investors are hoping for more details on the UK and EU’s new relationship. Unfortunately we are not as optimistic because in the released copy of her speech, she said the ball is in the EU’s court and this morning, the EU said the ball is entirely in the U.K.’s court. With NFP behind us, we believe that the market will begin to shift its focus to ECB and for this reason we like buying euros versus the dollar and other major currencies. The commodity currencies are quiet and we do not expect big moves today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+NZD
+USDJPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CHF, +USDJPY
-AUD
mildy +NZD, +USD
neutral JPY, CAD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURJPY at 132.25, Stop 131.95, Target 132.45
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1745, Stop 1.1715, Target 1.1765
3. Sell USDCHF at .9781, Stop a .9811, Target .9761

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

USDCHF to 0.98

USDCHF to 0.98

Chart Of The Day

USDCHF to 0.98

The U.S. dollar shot higher today after the FOMC statement revealed that Federal Reserve has every intention to raise interest rates one more time this year and 3 times in 2018. This unambiguously hawkish monetary policy outlook caught many investors by surprise and sent USD/CHF sharply higher. We think further gains are likely because today’s announcement caught many investors by surprise. The Fed completely overlooked the short term impact of the hurricanes on growth and inflation and instead, talked up the improvements in investment, labor market activity, exports and even spending. In her press conference Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the recovery is on a strong track. This view is shared by her peers because aside from planning to start balance sheet rolloff in October, 11 Fed officials see one more hike in 2017, 4 more than in June. We like buying dollars versus the Swiss Franc because the SNB will be one of the last major central banks to tighten monetary policy. Also technically, USD/CHF has broken above the 20-day SMA and appears poised for a move to the August high of 0.9773 which also happens to be the 38.2% fib retracement of this year’s decline. Support is at the 20-day SMA near 0.9589.