Today’s Trades 04.25.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar higher across the board this morning as ten year Treasury yields trade above 3%. With no U.S. economic reports on the calendar, the dollar will take its cue from yields which are likely to volatile during the NY trading session as investors decide whether U.S. rates should stay above or below this key level. All of the major currencies are hit by the dollar strength but an ECB meeting on the calendar tomorrow leaved the euro is particularly vulnerable. With that in mind, the worst performing currencies this morning and the comm dollars which extended their losses on the back of falling commodity prices. Sterling and the Japanese Yen are the most resilient and that’s likely to remain the case as USD/JPY looks at a slow climb upwards. Stock futures are signaling a lower open that could add pressure on high beta currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+JPY (but not vs USD)
-EUR
-CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CAD, -CHF,
mildly +GBP, +AUD, +JPY on relative basis
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2864, Stop at 1.2836, Target 1.2892
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2202, Stop at 1.2230, Target 1.2174
3. Sell EURGBP at .8740, Stop at .8768, Target .8712

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.23.2018 – USDCHF, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the new week with a fresh round of gains as the greenback is trading against all of the major currencies. The main catalyst is the 10 year Treasury yield which is hovering just under 3%. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today but last week’s momentum is carrying over to this morning’s trade. The Japanese Yen is the weakest currency followed by the euro which shrugged off upward revisions to EZ PMIs. The commodity currencies are also up across the board although the loonie is the most resilient as oil prices stabilize. Its Monday, so its difficult to say whether there will be continuation after these strong moves but minimally USD/JPY looks like its headed towards 108.50. GBP/USD could test 1.39 but UK yields are up quite a bit this morning as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CHF
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-GBP, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
mildly -EUR, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy AUDJPY at 82.70, Stop at 82.42, Target 82.98
2. Buy CADJPY at 84.60, Stop at 84.32, Target 84.88
3. Sell USDCHF at .9755, Stop at .9783, Target .9727
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2780, Stop at 1.2808, target 1.2752

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD – Back to 1.2500?

USDCAD – Back to 1.2500?

Chart Of The Day

Yesterday’s dovish BOC statement send USDCAD back above the 1.2600 figure – a move that no doubt pleased the Canadian monetary officials who want to see the value of the currency remain relatively low. But the rally could be short-lived if the data continues to surprise to the upside.

Tommorrow the market will get a look at CPI and Retail Sales Reports and although both datasets are projected to be a bit lower than the month prior and upwards surprise could send USDCAD back to a retest of the 1.2500 level. Despite Governor Poloz’s caution, the central bank has not ruled out the prospect of another rate hike in May, and some analysts continue to believe that the BOC will act.

Furthermore, with oil prices within a dollar of the key $70/bbl mark, the Canadian economy could absorb a rate hike with relative ease so the loonie could still have some juice left in the trade if the data provides the catalyst.

USD/CAD to 1.27?

USD/CAD to 1.27?

Chart Of The Day

USD/CAD rose above 1.26 following the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement. The pair probably would have extended its rally to 1.27 if not for the price of oil, which climbed to a fresh 3.5 year high after crude stocks took an unexpected tumble. Despite all of the improvements in Canada’s economy, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Deputy Governor Wilkins did not feel that underlying issues are evolving well enough to send an unambiguously positive signal to the market. The tone of their press conference was cautious with Poloz saying the economy is not yet able to stay at full capacity on its own and therefore interest rates may need to remain below the neutral range. They also see companies hesitant to invest because of NAFTA risks. As a result, the BoC feels they need to be data dependent and the pace of rate hikes is a considerable question mark as headwinds prevent a full recovery. Trade protectionism remains the biggest risk for Canada and they expressed no excitement about the recent progress in NAFTA talks.

Given how much USD/CAD has fallen ahead of the rate decision, we believe their lack of optimism will lead to additional short covering that should take USD/CAD to at least 1.2680 if not all the way to 1.2750. Technically, the next key resistance for USD/CAD is between 1.2685-1.2700, where the February 9th swing high meets the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January to March rally and the next big figure.

Where to Sell USD/CAD?

Where to Sell USD/CAD?

Chart Of The Day

Where to Sell USD/CAD?

After selling off aggressively in the front of the week, USD/CAD rebounded as it became clear that no deal will be made at the NAFTA summit in Peru. According to President Trump, a deal is close and the U.S. concession on regional auto content puts them one step closer to an agreement. Mexico thinks a deal will be made in May but a preliminary agreement could happen sooner. This means USD/CAD is still a sell on rallies especially between 1.2650 and 1.2700. The Canadian dollar will be in play next week with a Bank of Canada meeting on the calendar. No changes are expected but there could be a tinge of optimism. The last time they met, the monetary policy statement contained a more cautious tone with the BoC expressing concerns about lower wage and household credit growth. Since then, oil prices hit a 3 year high, retail sales rebounded and job growth accelerated. With a NAFTA imminent, the BoC has less to worry about which could foster optimism from the central bank.

Technically, although the 200-day SMA sits right above current levels (near 1.2625), we think that profit taking could drive USD/CAD up to the 100-day SMA near 1.2675. That would be the ideal level to sell as it also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement of the Jan to March rally. Meanwhile 1.2800 should hold as resistance and we view any move toward level as an opportunity to add to short positions. Should USD/CAD break 1.25, the next stop will be February’s spike low of 1.2450.

Today’s Trades 04.12.2018 – GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The currency markets are eyeing geopolitical risks this morning as President Trump says an attack on Syria could happen very soon, or “not at all.” While this creates more confusion than clarity, investors are relieved that an announcement wasn’t made overnight. By hitting Syria, the President is taunting Russia and the greatest implication aside from military engagement, U.S. dollar weakness and risk aversion is higher oil prices. USD/CAD remains under pressure was investors eye the headlines for updates on Trump’s decision. Softer Eurozone industrial production makes the euro the weakest performing currency this morning. Sterling came back strongly after dropping below 1.4150. USD/JPY has moved to the top of its recent range on the back of higher bond yields and Dow futures, which are pointing to a positive open. AUD is flat while NZD continues to outperform. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today so keep on the headlines and stocks.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
+CAD
+NZD
-EUR
-USD (but +USDJPY)

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +CAD, +NZD
-EUR, -USD (except USDJPY), -AUD, -CHF, -JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2594, stop at 1.2623, Target 1.2563
2. Buy USDJPY at 107.13, Stop at 106.85, Target 107.41
3. Buy GBPUSD at 1.4185, stop at 1.4157, Target 1.4213

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.11.2018 – EURGBP, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as investors wait for the next shoe to drop. With President Trump set to announce a response to the chemical attacks in Syria, ongoing trade tensions, the NAFTA meeting and the investigations in Russia / Trump’s lawyer, there’s significant headline risk today. U.S. CPI is expected to tip higher given stronger PPI and gas prices but the impact on the greenback may be limited. The FOMC minutes are also due later this afternoon. The best performing currencies this morning are the euro and Japanese Yen. Mario Draghi is speaking but so far there hasn’t been any significant headlines. We are also seeing some profit taking in the commodity currencies as European equities sell off and Dow futures point to a lower open. Global bond yields are down across the board which is adding pressure on USD, EUR and GBP.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -AUD
mildly -NZD, -USD (trend is down but data could prop the buck)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy EURGBP at .8720, stop at .8692, Target .8748
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2612, Stop at 12584, Target 1.2640
3. Sell USDJPY at 106.90, Stop at 107.18, Target 106.62
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4189, Stop at 1.4217, Target 1.4161

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as investors wait for the next shoe to drop. With President Trump set to announce a response to the chemical attacks in Syria, ongoing trade tensions, the NAFTA meeting and the investigations in Russia / Trump’s lawyer, there’s significant headline risk today. U.S. CPI is expected to tip higher given stronger PPI and gas prices but the impact on the greenback may be limited. The FOMC minutes are also due later this afternoon. The best performing currencies this morning are the euro and Japanese Yen. Mario Draghi is speaking but so far there hasn’t been any significant headlines. We are also seeing some profit taking in the commodity currencies as European equities sell off and Dow futures point to a lower open. Global bond yields are down across the board which is adding pressure on USD, EUR and GBP.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -AUD
mildly -NZD, -USD (trend is down but data could prop the buck)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy EURGBP at .8720, stop at .8692, Target .8748
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2612, Stop at 12584, Target 1.2640
3. Sell USDJPY at 106.90, Stop at 107.18, Target 106.62
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4189, Stop at 1.4217, Target 1.4161

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.10.2018 – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It was no surprise that Chinese President Xi took the high road by refraining from escalating trade tensions with the U.S. during his speech last night. Instead he stressed China’s willingness to cooperate by saying they could lower trade tariffs on autos and tighten enforcement on intellectual property rights. In return, USD/JPY bounced back above 107 and risk currencies traded higher across the board led by gains in AUD and NZD. The U.S. dollar is still underperforming after the FBI raided the offices of Trump’s lawyer, putting the trail one step closer to the President. EUR/USD is testing the 50-day SMA for the second day in a row and and looks set to break it. Sterling is benefitting from positive BoE comments the Canadian dollar is finally moving lower on the prospect of a NAFTA deal. U.S. PPI and Canadian housing starts/permits are the only economic reports on today’s calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-JPY
+CAD
+AUD
+EUR
+NZD
+USDJPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-JPY, -USD (except vs. USDJPY)
neutral CHF, GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy USDJPY at 107.07, Stop at 106.79, Target 107.35
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2677, Stop at 1.2705, Target 1.2649
3. Buy AUDUSD at .7740, Stop at .7712, Target .7768

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD – Why it Could Hit 1.26 Next Week

USDCAD – Why it Could Hit 1.26 Next Week

Chart Of The Day

USDCAD – Why it Could Hit 1.26 Next Week

One of the biggest stories next week could be a NAFTA deal. In the past week, both President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau have said that significant progress has been made and its widely believed that a preliminary agreement will be announced at the summit in Peru beginning on Friday April 13th. With the Mexican elections fast approaching, if Trump wants a deal during a time when meaningful policy changes can still be made according to White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, “its got to be soon,” which means “2 weeks to 30 days.” Although Canada’s trade deficit widened more than expected, job growth was very strong in March with more than 32.3K jobs added, 68.3K of which were full time hires. There are no major Canadian economic reports scheduled for release in the week ahead so if a NAFTA deal is announced, it could take USD/CAD to 1.26 quickly.

Technically, there’s a lot of support below current levels for USD/CAD. On Friday, the pair’s decline was halted by the 50-day SMA near 1.2740. Even if the pair breaks below that level, the 100-day SMA and 200-week SMA sit right at 1.2700. A break below 1.2675 would be needed for an accelerated move lower.

Today’s Trades 04.05.2018 – EURGBP, USDCAD, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning thanks to yesterday’s strong reversal in U.S. stocks and overnight strength in Asian and European equities. For what its worth, Dow futures are pointing to a positive open with bond yields up across the board. This should be drive risk currencies higher but is supporting the greenback instead. Part of this has to do with softer UK and EZ PMIs, which have driven euro and sterling lower. USD/JPY made a run for 107 but with the 50-day SMA capping gains, we have not seen much continuation. The commodity currencies are weak but AUD and NZD are trying to come back while the Canadian dollar slips ahead of its trade balance report. There was a big upside surprise in last month’s release which has investors looking for softer numbers. From the U.S., weekly jobless claims and trade balance are scheduled for release but these reports tend to have only limited impact on the greenback.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-CAD
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-CAD, -EUR, -GBP, -JPY
neutral AUD, NZD, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy NZDCAD at .9311, Stop at .9283, Target .9340
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2770, Stop at 1.2742, Target 1.2798
3. Buy EURGBP at .8732, Stop at .8704, Target .8760

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.27.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher this morning against all of the major currencies as the greenback recuperates from last week’s losses. Global equities also followed the move in U.S. stocks and this morning, Dow futures are pointing to a positive open. Sterling is under the greatest pressure, falling on the back of month end profit taking flows. EUR/USD broke through 1.2400 on the back of softer Eurozone confidence numbers but hasn’t extended its losses YET. USD/CAD is pressing higher despite an uptick in oil prices while the Australian dollar follows gold prices lower. Last night’s Fed comments did not have a significant impact on the dollar though both Mester and Quarles remain optimistic about the outlook for the economy and rate hikes. Looking ahead, US housing data and consumer confidence numbers are scheduled for release. In this otherwise quiet week, confidence data could have a larger than unusual impact on FX trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
-CAD
-AUD
+USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CAD, -CHF, -AUD
+USD, +JPY
mildly -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Sell AUDJPY at 81.59, Stop at 81.87, Target 81.31
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2412, Stop at 1.2440, Target 1.2384
3. Sell EURJPY at 131.12, Stop at 131.40, Target 130.84

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.26.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are trading higher this morning as an initial sell-off in Asia turned into gains for Japanese and HK equities. European stocks are also in positive territory as Dow futures point to a sharply higher open. Investors are relieved that Friday’s sharp sell-off did not turn into additional losses for currencies & equities and this strength could carry over to the North American session. This is the first day of trade ahead a long weekend for most investors (Easter Holiday). The lack of major economic reports points to consolidation but political headlines and Japan’s fiscal year end could affect FX trade. With that in mind, yields are up across the board, supporting the idea of a further risk rally. The good news is that US and Korea have reached an agreement that exempts S. Korea from steel tariffs. The U.S. and China were also in talks over the weekend that could ease trade war fears. The New Zealand dollar is the best performer, rising strongly on the back of an unexpected trade surplus while the Canadian dollar lags behind.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-CAD
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +NZD, +GBP, +CHF
-JPY, -CAD, -USD (except USDJPY)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2876, Stop at 1.2848, Target 1.2904
2. Buy USDJPY at 105.12, Stop at 104.84, Target 105.40
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.2415, Stop at 1.2387, Target 1.2443

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT