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EUR/USD – Time for a Breakout
Between Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony on Capitol Hill, ECB President Mario Draghi’s testimony on monetary policy and the Eurogroup’s decision on Greece’s reform plan, tomorrow will be a big day for the EUR/USD. From both a technical and fundamental perspective the currency pair has been itching for a breakout and waiting for a catalyst to set it on a new direction. We know that the EUR/USD is deeply oversold and short positions are stretched but with the ECB increasing stimulus and the Fed looking to raise interest rates, there is a reason why the EUR/USD is trading at its current levels. How the EUR/USD trades on Tuesday and the days ahead will be determined by whether the gap between Eurozone and U.S. policy widens or narrows. If Yellen talks about tightening and Draghi emphasizes the need for easy monetary policy, the currency pair will break to the downside but if Yellen sounds less eager to raise rates and Draghi seems more comfortable with regional risks now that Greece has received an extension, a short squeeze could finally drive EUR/USD higher.
Taking look at the daily chart, the consolidative triangle pattern is clear. If the EUR/USD breaks the top of the triangle, the next stop should be 1.1645, a former support turned resistance level. If it breaks the downside and takes out 1.1275, the next area of support is at the 11 year low of 1.11.