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As the name suggests, there are 20 countries in the G20 and here’s where we think the 20 nations stand on currency policy.
No issues with weak yen
US – Treasury supports Japan’s policies
Canada – Said G7 statement is a consensus and not aimed at singling out Japan
China – Guilty of persistent currency manipulation, so no finger pointing
Japan – Definitely won’t be criticizing itself
Germany – Wants to leave Japan alone
UK – Plans to ease consistent with their own devaluation of currencies
India – Wants a stronger currency to tame inflation
South Africa – Currency has been weak, won’t have any major issues with Yen
Turkey – Recently cut interest rates, calls for intervention
Argentina – Guilty of recent currency intervention
Indonesia – Has been guilty of recently intervening to support local currency
Supports tougher currency language
Russia – Wants specific language against FX intervention
South Korea – Competes with Japan, has BIG problems with Yen weakness
EU – EU as a whole leans towards more specific language on FX
France – Has concerns about currencies
Italy – Has concerns about currencies
Mexico – Has an “intervention free policy”
Brazil – Guilty of recent currency intervention, has strong currency
Saudi Arabia – Unknown
Australia – Plans to ease so probably won’t join calls for tougher language on Japan
According to a draft of the G20 communique, the G20 may call for countries to “refrain from engaging in competitive devaluation,” which would be tougher language on currencies but it is still not certain that these words will make it into the final statement.
The market will be comparing the final G20 communique to the latest G7 statement and the last G20 statement:
Latest G7 Statement on Currencies:
“We, the G7 Ministers and Governors, reaffirm our longstanding commitment to market determined exchange rates and to consult closely in regard to actions in foreign exchange markets. We reaffirm that our fiscal and monetary policies have been and will remain oriented towards meeting our respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments, and that we will not target exchange rates. We are agreed that excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will continue to consult closely on exchange markets and cooperate as appropriate.”
November 2012 G20 Communique on Currencies:
We reiterate our commitments to move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments and refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies; to boost domestic sources of growth in surplus economies, and boost national savings in deficit economies. We reiterate that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We commit to the implementation of ambitious structural reforms aimed at promoting output and employment. We have also made progress in strengthening our Accountability Assessment framework by agreeing on a set of measures to inform our analysis of our fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies.