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March 2018 FOMC Trading Plan
Kathy Lien
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Today’s Trading Plan for 12.22.2017 – GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDNZD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
It should be no surprise that today is a subdued day in the FX markets. Monday is Christmas, Tuesday is Boxing day and many European traders have already left early to spend the long weekend with their families. There are a flurry of U.S. economic reports due for release this morning but it should also be a quiet day in North America with limited participation. The dollar retains its bid after the Congress approved the bill to fund the government through January, avoiding a shutdown. In Spain, the Separatist parties won a majority in the election which is a problem for the national government as it has empowered the region’s ousted separatist leader to call for new talks. GDP numbers are due for release from Canada and they are likely to be firmer, helping loonie retain its gains. AUD is strong while NZD is weak. GBP is stuck in a 30 pip range near 1.34.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
mildly +USD
+AUD
-NZD
-GBP
-EUR
*Trading Biases*
mildly +USD,
+AUD, +CAD,
-NZD, -GBP
mildly -EUR, -CHF
neutral JPY
*Today’s Initial Trades*
1. Sell NZDUSD at .7014, Stop at .7042, Target .6986
2. Sell GBPUSD at .13382, Stop at 1.3410, Target 1.3354 (though may not stick with it)
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.1006, Stop at 1.0978, Target 1.1034
Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT
Today’s Trading Plan 10.20.17 – EURUSD and AUDNZD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
The U.S. dollar is trading sharply higher this morning after the US Senate approved the tax reform resolution last night preventing a filibuster from the Democrats. The next stop is the house. Investors are extremely excited that tax cuts are on the way and have celebrated by taking the dollar, stock futures and bond yields sharply higher. The JPY, CHF AUD and NZD have taken the brunt of the selling but EUR is also down slightly. Sterling on the other hand recovered overnight losses and is trading higher against the greenback on the hope for a rate hike next month. Investors were also encouraged by comments from Germany’s Merkel who suggested that sufficient progress will be made to take talks to their next step. With Canadian CPI and Retail sales due at 8:30am NY, the CAD is trading in a narrow range. We believe further USD gains are likely in the North American session as U.S. traders cheer the news.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
+USD
-NZD
-EUR
+GBP
*Trading Biases*
+USD, +GBP
-NZD, -EUR, -JPY, -CHF
mildly -CAD, -AUD
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Sell EURUSD at 1.1803, Stop at 1.1833, Target 1.1783
2. Buy AUDNZD at market now 1,1228, Stop at 1.1198, Target 1.1248
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Today’s Trading Plan 10.05.17 – EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCHF
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
Most of the major currency pairs are trading sharply lower this morning with the losses led by AUD/USD and USD/JPY. Softer Australian data last night sent AUD tumbling and puts the currency at risk of a steeper decline to 78 cents. Sterling on the other hand is being hit by comments from Prime Minister May who proposed cap household energy prices and more social housing. The dollar is also weak with USD/JPY losing ground quickly on the back of falling yields and this is pushing all of the Yen crosses lower. North American traders will have their eyes on Canada and the U.S.’ trade balance reports along with speeches from Fed Presidents Powell, Williams and Harker (all by 10am NY).
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-JPY
*Trading Biases*
-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -JPY, -CHF
neutral NZD
mildly +USD (but not vs JPY), +CAD
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Sell AUDNZD at 1.0928, Stop at 1.0958, Target 1.0908
2. Sell EURJPY at 132.15, Stop 132.45, Target 131.95
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1744, Stop at 1.1774, Target 1.1724
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7836, Stop at .7866, Target .7816
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Today’s Trading Plan – EURGBP, EURJPY, USDCAD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies except for the euro which is back above 1.18 thanks to stronger than expected German labor data. The resilience of the greenback is surprising after yesterday’s sharp reversal in Treasury yields but at the end of the day the moves are modest and a reflection of shifting interest rate expectations in Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. AUD and NZD are lower today while CAD manages to extend its gains. Sterling on the other hand is the worst performer as a surprise downward revision to GDP casts doubt on the Bank of England’s rosy, hawkish outlook for the economy. US personal income, spending, the PCE deflator and Chicago PMI are due for release this morning along with the revisions to the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. At the same time from Canada, July GDP numbers are on tap.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
+EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-NZD
+CAD
*Trading Biases*
+EUR, +CHF, +CAD
-GBP
mildly -NZD, -AUD,
NEUTRAL USD, JPY
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Buy EURGBP at market now .8826, Stop at .8796, Target .8846
2. Buy EURJPY at 132.82, Stop at 132.52, Target 133.00
3. Sold USDCAD again at 1.2420, Stop 1.2450, Target 1.2400
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Today’s Trading Plan 09.22. 17 – USDCAD, EURUSD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
There are no U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today but the dollar continues to give back its gains as yields take another tumble this morning. Stronger than expected Eurozone PMIs and benign comments from ECB President Draghi helped EUR/USD hit 1.20 this morning. Although the pair has since lost some of its momentum, it could make another run for this level. Prime Minister May’s Brexit speech is today and sterling is steady ahead of the event. The Canadian dollar is also firm ahead of this morning’s Canadian retail sales and CPI reports. We’ll be live trading these 2 pieces of data at 8:15 NY / 12:15 (please join us). USD/JPY is trying to claw back but it is not clear whether it will be able to so keep an eye on U.S. yields. If the 10 year rate rebounds and is down less than 1.5bp, we could see a dollar bulls regain control.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
+CAD
+EUR
+AUD
+NZD
+GBP
*Trading Biases*
+CAD, +EUR, +GBP
mildly -USD
mildly +AUD, +NZD
neutral JPY, CHF
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1969, Stop at 1.1939, Target 1.1989
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2272, Stop at 1.2300, Target 1.2252
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Today’s Trading Plan 09.14.2017 – NZDCAD, NZDCHF
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
We are live trading the Bank of England meeting this morning so that will be our main focus. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar is losing its momentum after having raced to fresh highs overnight. However the prospect of a stronger CPI report keeps us from selling the currency this morning. With that in mind, we could be near a top for a greenback as EUR/USD and USD/JPY hover near key technical levels. AUD is struggling to hold onto its post employment report gains while NZD is lagging behind. USD/CAD appears to be in the process of rolling over.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-NZD
+CAD
+EUR
*Trading Biases*
mildly -USD
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF
-NZD
mildly +AUD
neutral USD, JPY
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Sell NZDCAD at 0.8806, Stop at 0.8836, Target 0.8786
2. Sell NZDCHF at market now 0.6987, Stop at 0.7017, Target 0.6967
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Today’s Trading Plan 08.28.2017 – EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
It may be a quiet morning in the foreign exchange market but the weakness we saw in the dollar last week carried over this morning as the greenback is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning. The market is still disappointment with Yellen and pleased with Draghi. However with Donald Trump focused on dealing with Hurricane Harvey, the lack of a reaction to North Korea’s launch of 3 short range ballistic missiles into the Japanese sea helped USD/JPY avoid immediate losses at the Asia open. Harvey has caused significant damage in the region and while it is now a Tropical Storm, more rain could lead to more flooding in the coming days. While oil prices are lower this morning, gas prices hit 2 year highs. There should be some catch in oil today. The euro remains one of the best performing currencies although AUD is also seeing quite a bit of demand as oil and copper prices tick higher. After hitting a high of 1.2945, the reversal in GBP/USD reflects the pair’s overall weakness and suggests that we could see further GBP underperformance vs. EUR and possibly even the commodity currencies.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
*Trading Biases*
-USD
+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +JPY
mildly -GBP
neutral NZD
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Buy EURUSD at market now 1.1938, Stop at 1.1898, Target 1.1958
2. Buy AUDUSD at market now 0.7942, Stop at 0.7902, Target 0.7962
3. Buy AUDNZD at market now 1.0965, Stop at 1.0925, Target 1.0985
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Today’s Trading Plan for 08.24.2017 – USDCHF, AUDUSD, EURAUD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
As Federal Reserve officials and central bankers from around the world gather at Jackson Hole for their annual summit, the U.S. dollar is enjoying a firmer tone. We have a few pieces of U.S. data due for release today (jobless claims and existing home sales) but none of them are expected to have a significant impact on the greenback. Yellen and Draghi don’t speak until tomorrow so it could be a quiet day in the FX market with an upward bias for the buck. U.S. yields are slightly higher but politics are also driving the dollar’s recovery with Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell offering a conciliatory tone to President Trump. The best performing currency this morning is USDJPY but GBPUSD is also performing well as it bounces off 1.28. The commodity currencies are under pressure as the U.S. dollar recovers but CAD still manages to hold its gains, pressuring USD/CAD lower.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
+USD
-AUD
-NZD
+CAD
-CHF
*Trading Biases*
+USD. +CAD
-AUD, -NZD, -CHF, -JPY
neutral GBP and EUR
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Sell AUDUSD at market now 0.7895, Stop 0.7935, Target 0.7875
2. Buy USDCHF at market now 0.9646, Stop at 0.9606, Target 0.9666
3. Buy EURAUD at market now 1.4943, Stop at 1.4903, Target 1.4963
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Today’s Trading Plan 08.23.2016 – USDJPY, EURGBP, USDCAD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
We are starting the morning with mixed performance for the U.S. dollar. The greenback is trading lower versus the euro, jpy and higher versus the commodity currencies and British pound. The Trump Administration’s new sanctions on Russia and North Korea, the President’s comment that he would be willing to shut down the government to force Congress to authorize funding for the border wall and the his continued threat to withdraw from NAFTA reminds investors of how unpredictable this President is and the consequences were seen in USDJPY today. Slightly better than expected German PMIs helped to drive the euro higher but the Eurozone data was weaker. NZD was the worst performer, hit hard by the government’s pre-election update.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-AUD
-NZD
+CAD
*Trading Biases*
-GBP, -AUD, NZD
+CHF, +JPY, +CAD
mildly +USD,
neutral EUR
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Buy USDJPY at market now 109.38, 108.98, Target 109.58
2. Sell USDCAD 1.2569, Stop at 1.2609, Target 1.2549
3. Buy EURGBP at 0.9195, Stop 40, target 20
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Monday -39
Tues +40
Wed -18
Thurs -4
Friday +45
Total +22
Today’s Trading Plan 08.22.2017 – EURCHF, GBPUSD, NZDUSD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning. We’re getting closer to Fed Summit at Jackson Hole and traders are unwinding their short positions. At the same time dollar bulls are encouraged by the lack of fresh antagonism from North Korea and inflammatory comments from President Trump during his rally last night. U.S. rates are up, providing further support to the greenback. The weaker than expected German ZEW survey pressured the euro lower and sterling is following suit, dropping below 1.2850. The worst performer is the New Zealand dollar, but outside of the RBNZ’s outlook, there’s no specific catalyst for the move. Canadian retail sales are scheduled for release this evening -- we believe the data will be weaker given the drop in wholesale sales and if thats true, it could extend the recovery for USD/CAD.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-NZD
*Trading Biases*
+USD, +JPY
-EUR, -GBP -AUD, -NZD
neutral CAD, CHF
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Sell EURCHF at market now 1.1350, Stop 1.1390, Target 1.1330
2. Sell GBPUSD at market now 1.2830, Stop 1.2879, Target 1.2810
3. Sell NZDUSD at market now 0.7284, Stop at .7324, Target 0.7264
Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST
Monday -39
Tues +40
Wed -18
Thurs -4
Friday +45
Total +22
Today’s Trading Plan 08.21.2017 – EURJPY, USDCAD, EURAUD
Swing*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
As U.S. and South Korea begin their military exercises, the U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies except for the Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc. U.S. rates are also moving lower, indicating that investors have not started to buy dollars (yet) into Jackson Hole. While we think the dollar will be pressured by geopolitical risks at the start the week, we ultimately believe that it will rally on Jackson Hole because practically ALL members of the FOMC believe that balance sheet reduction should begin next month. And they won’t miss the opportunity to remind/prepare the market for this big change. The sell-off in the Swiss Franc vs. USD and EUR confirm that investors are not overly concerned or nervous that the military exercises will boil over into something bigger. Its been a relatively quiet morning with commodity currencies leading the gains, USD/JPY testing and so far finding support near 109 and EUR/USD struggling to break above resistance at 1.0770.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-USD
-EUR
-CHF
+JPY
+CAD
*Trading Biases*
+CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-EUR, -CHF,
mildly -USD, -JPY
neutral GBP
*Today’s Ideas*
1. Sell USDCAD at market now 1.2592, Stop 1.2632, Target 1.2572
2. Sell EURAUD at market now 1.4828, Stop at 1.4868, Target 1.4808
3. Sell EURJPY at market now 128.30, Stop 128.70, Target 128.05