USDCAD and EURGBP Big Trade Orders 05.09.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

BK Big Forex Trades

Some “just in case” orders if USD/CAD or EUR/GBP retraces overnight.

1. USD/CAD Big Trade Order

Place Order to Buy USD/CAD at 1.2915

Stop at 1.2715

USD/CAD broke above 1.3000 after early gains in oil prices turned into significant losses but profit taking caused the pair to end the day below this key level. We believe that the pair will another run for 1.3000. Canadian housing starts increased by a smaller amount, reinforcing the slowdown in Canada’s economy. The wildfires in Canada continue to burn but have apparently reached a turning point thanks to light rain and wind shift. Officials say that production could be brought back online within a week. If USD/CAD closes above 1.3000, there’s no stopping the pair until 1.3200. Like USD/JPY, positions were heavily skewed towards a further decline and the velocity of the pair’s reversal could prompt a more aggressive rally as key levels are broken.

2. EUR/GBP Big Trade Order

Place Order to Buy EUR/GBP at 0.7885

Stop at 0.7685

German industrial production and UK trade numbers are scheduled for release on Tuesday. Given the sharp rise in GE factory orders and increase in German PMI, we’re looking for an uptick in tomorrow’s manufacturing sector index. The risk for the UK report on the other hand is to the downside after the sharp fall in their PMI manufacturing index. While the Eurozone would be negatively affected by Brexit, the first shock will undoubtedly be to UK assets so EUR/GBP still has further upside before a correction.

GBP/CAD Big Trade Orders 04.28.2016 – LIVE

by Kathy Lien Swing

5/2 – Entry lowered to 1.8400, Triggered, Set target at 1.8375

GBP/CAD Big Trade Orders

Place Order to Sell GBP/CAD at 1.8410

Stop at 1.8610

Fundamentally we’ve seen strong gains in sterling and the Canadian dollar but recent economic reports show more underlying strength in the Canada vs. U.K. economy. Canadian retail sales are up, consumer prices increased, manufacturing activity accelerated, over 40k jobs were created in the month of March and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.1% from 7.3%. The U.K. in contrast has reported mostly weaker economic reports ranging from lower retail sales, employment and industrial production. So the downtrend in GBP/CAD should reman intact. Technically, GBP/CAD is one of our most successful ValueTrader currency pairs with only 1 loser this year. This strategy identifies ideal entries in the direction of the trend.

Canadian GDP numbers are scheduled for release on Friday and given the rise in retail sales, we believe the risk is to the upside for the report.

2 New Big Trade Orders 04.21.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

2 New Big Trade Orders

**Since both of these orders involve NZD, if one triggers, cancel the other

GBP/NZD Order

Place Order to Sell GBP/NZD at 2.0710

Stop at 2.0910

NZD/USD Order

Place Order to Buy NZD/USD at 0.6890

Stop at 0.6690

We are finally getting a pullback in the commodity currencies that should give us the opportunity to join the uptrend in NZD. Between the surprise increase in consumer prices and rebound in dairy, the RBNZ has no reason to rush into a rate cut next week. A pullback to 69 cents would be a great place to establish a long entry for a move back to 70 cents. In an environment of extraordinarily low rates, NZ’s 2.25% yield has and will continue to make NZ attractive.

We also like SELLING GBP because data has been terrible. A larger number of people filed for jobless claims in the month of March and more importantly average weekly earnings growth slowed to 1.8% from 2.1% in February. Greater unemployment and slower wage growth is bad news for the U.K. economy and particularly for spending. Retail sales numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow and this slowdown in wage growth combined with the big drop in spending plus shop prices reported by the British Retail Consortium puts the risk to the downside for the report.

2 New Big Trade Orders 04.18.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

2 New Big Trade Orders

New CAD/JPY Order

Place Order to Sell CAD/JPY at 84.80

Stop at 86.80

There are 2 reasons why we like selling CAD/JPY. First oil prices are falling following the disappointment in Doha and we believe this move could put additional pressure on oil and carve out a near term bottom in the Canadian dollar. We are also bearish US dollars and the continuous cycle of earthquakes in Japan makes us worried that more damage could hit the nation. Each tremor has led to a bout of yen strength and between our bearish outlook for the dollar and bullish outlook for the yen, we believe that the Yen component of the trade should also drive CAD/JPY down.

New USD/CHF Order

Place Order to Sell USD/CHF at 0.9680

Stop at 0.9880

Between last week’s surprise contraction in retail sales and sluggish consumer price growth, the Fed has zero reasons to raise interest rates in April AND June. At this stage we need to see retail sales rise more than 0.5% in each of the next 2 months for tightening at the beginning of the summer to even be a possibility. The Fed is meeting next week and there’s a very good chance that the overall tone of the statement will be dovish – so we are looking for additional dollar weakness ahead and on the back of this event. The dollar remains a sell on rallies.

New EUR/USD, AUD/CAD and USD/CAD Big Trade Orders 04.11.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

EUR/USD Big Trade Order

Place Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390

Stop at 1.1190

The trend in euro has been strong and we still think the pair is aiming for 1.1500 and higher. The market detests dollars right now and the emergency Fed meeting tomorrow suggests that something is afoot. Especially since it comes hours before Yellen meets with President Obama. These are closed door meetings so no comments will be made but there’s certainly reasons to believe that there are lingering concerns about the U.S. economy. Also, the euro is being driven by risk this week and we believe that China will report higher exports which should help boost risk appetite and in turn the euro.

2 Big Trade Order for USD/CAD and AUD/CAD

Place Order to Sell USDCAD at 1.2993

Stop at 1.3193

Place Order to Sell AUDCAD at 0.9850

Stop at 1.0050

After last week’s strong employment report, we have every reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will be more optimistic especially given the recovery in oil prices since their last meeting. So if we are given the opportunity, we would like to buy CAD on a dip and are trying to do so through USDCAD or AUDCAD – if one of these orders trigger, we will cancel the other

We also have 1 live trade and 1 pending order:

Live


EUR/GBP

Order to Buy EUR/GBP at 0.8050 TRIGGERED

Stop 0.7850

*Take Profit Set at 0.8120

Pending


AUD/NZD

Place Order to Sell AUD/NZD at 1.1150

Stop at 1.1350

New AUD/JPY and EUR/GBP Big Trade Orders

by Kathy Lien Swing

BK Big Trade Orders – AUD/JPY and EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP -Change Entry Levels to the following:

Place Order to Buy EUR/GBP at 0.8050

Stop 0.7850

ECB President Draghi said nothing damaging to the euro this morning and the ECB minutes were relatively benign. As such, we believe EUR/GBP remains a screaming buy and are adjusting our orders accordingly.

New AUD/JPY Order

Place Order to Sell AUD/JPY at 81.70

Stop at 83.70

USD/JPY is melting down and AUD/USD appears to be topping, making AUD/JPY a very attractive trade. Bank of Japan intervention is a risk but it appears not a very serious one given recent comments from Japanese officials. We’re not sure if the order will be filled but if AUD/JPY rallies to 81.70, we want to be sellers near that level because AUD/JPY is headed for 80.00.

New AUD/JPY Big Trade Orders 04.01.2016 – Canceled

by Kathy Lien Swing

4/3 – Cancel AUD/JPY order for now – its falling because of USD/JPY and we don’t want to double up on the same trade

New AUD/JPY Big Trade Orders

Place Order to Buy AUD/JPY at 85.13

Stop at 83.13

We think USD/JPY is a buy on dip after today’s U.S employment report and we believe that the strong increase in Australian PMI along with the uptick in Chinese PMI will encourage further gains in AUD, making AUD/JPY a particularly attractive long trade.

New NZD/CAD and EUR/GBP Big Trade Orders 03.31.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

New NZD/CAD Big Trade Order

Place Order to Buy NZD/CAD at 0.8925

Stop at 0.8725

We have been waiting for the opportunity to pick a top in the Canadian dollar and we believe that the time is near. USD/CAD is poised for a test of its October low of 1.2832 and this level should limit losses for the pair because it also marks the highs from early 2015. We have chose to sell CAD against the New Zealand dollar because unlike AUD which faces significant event risks this week and next, New Zealand’s calendar is relatively barren. Also, if we are right about Australian and Chinese PMIs being a bit stronger tonight, the data should help AUD and NZD.

Reload EUR/GBP

Place Order to Buy EUR/GBP 0.7915

Stop 0.7715

EUR/GBP is strong and its not clear whether it will retrace at all given the divergence between EUR and GBP. However if it does, we want to be buying EUR/GBP at 0.7915.

New AUD/CAD Big Trade Orders 03.28.2016 +50

by Kathy Lien Swing

3/30 – Profit target hit

3/29 – AUD/CAD Big Trade – Set a Profit Target of 0.9990. The pair seems to be struggling with crossing parity
3/28 – Order to Buy AUD/CAD at 0.9940 Triggered

New AUD/CAD Big Trade Orders

Place Order to Buy AUD/CAD at 0.9940

Stop at 0.9740

We are recycling our AUD/CAD trade. In our Monday Game Plan webinar we said we would be buying NZD/CAD but upon further thought, we’ve got more potentially positive AUD data this week than NZD data and we need data on our side to push the trade in our direction. The improvement in business confidence in Australia and the persistent strength of gold should keep AUD bid. CAD on the other hand deserves to be trading lower given the pullback in oil prices and the potential for a top in the commodity. We’re looking to buy a brief pullback in the pair for another run towards 1.00.