EUR/USD Big Trade Order 4.12.2016 -130

Swing

4/13
Out of EURUSD

4/13 -- Move EUR/USD Stop up to 1.1260 -- we’ll buy again lower if the stop is hit because if it breaks 1.1270 then its headed to 1.1200 and maybe even 1.1160

4/12 -- Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390 TRIGGERED

Place Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390

Stop at 1.1190

The trend in euro has been strong and we still think the pair is aiming for 1.1500 and higher. The market detests dollars right now and the emergency Fed meeting tomorrow suggests that something is afoot. Especially since it comes hours before Yellen meets with President Obama. These are closed door meetings so no comments will be made but there’s certainly reasons to believe that there are lingering concerns about the U.S. economy. Also, the euro is being driven by risk this week and we believe that China will report higher exports which should help boost risk appetite and in turn the euro.

New AUD/NZD Order 04.05.2016 +6

Swing

4/7 Close AUD/NZD trade at market (now 1.1094)

4/5 Order to Sell AUD/NZD at 1.1100 Triggered

New AUD/NZD Order

Place Order to Sell AUD/NZD at 1.1100

Stop at 1.1300

While the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged last night, AUD fell sharply on the back of risk aversion and the RBA’s note that “Under present circumstances, an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy.” This comment was interpreted as FX jawboning and went a long way in pressuring the currency. It remains to be seen whether 75 cents will be broken but between the RBA’s caution and the surprise increase in NZ dairy prices, we expect AUD to underperform NZ and today’s intraday reversal in AUD/NZD to result in further losses for the pair.

USD/JPY Big Trade Order 04.01.2016- Stopped

Swing

4/6 -- Stopped

4/1 -- Place Order to Buy USD/JPY 111.80 Triggered

New USD/JPY Big Trade Order

Place Order to Buy USD/JPY 111.80

Stop at 109.80

Janet Yellen’s dovish comments were significant and we believe that there’s more downside for the dollar however losses in USD/JPY will be limited by the prospect of Japanese stimulus, massive amounts of long yen positions, threat of BoJ intervention and the fact that the next move by the Fed could still happen this year

New USD/JPY Big Trade Order 02.24.2016- CANCELED

Swing

Place Order to BUY USD/JPY at 110.85 Stop 108.85

USD/JPY is becoming grossly oversold and there are good reasons to think that it may bounce hard very soon. Here is why we like the trade:

1. Yield Spreads -- the difference between 10 yrs UST and 10 yrs JGBs is far out of whack relative to the USD/JPY pair. US instruments are yielding historically far more in spread than the current exchange rate implies and US yields see any sort of rally the pair should pop.

2.Japanese corporates are way under water in their hedges (set at 115.00) and BOJ simply cannot afford to let the exchange rate slip any lower or it will risk a profit recession for the key exporting sector.

3.Speculative positioning is extremely stretched and BOJ loves to punish the spec at their most vulnerable point.

Therefore chance of intervention are increasing rapidly at these levels and we want to postion ourselves to be on the side of the central bank

Big Trade USD/JPY Buy Order 02.01.2016 – Stopped

Swing

2/3 Stopped on USD/JPY Aggressive and Conservative

USD/JPY Buy order at 120.65 TRIGGERED

USD/JPY Orders

Aggressive

Place Order to BUY USD/JPY at 120.65

Stop 118.65

Conservative

Place Order to BUY USD/JPY at 119.85

Stop 117.85

Last week’s surprise decision to cut interest rates was a major announcement for the Bank of Japan -- one that we believe will have another 200 to 300 pips of continuation. Friday’s move stopped right at the 200-day SMA so a deeper retracement is possible and we want to use that opportunity to buy USD/JPY at a lower level. The BoJ not only lowered interest rates, but also pushed out their timeline for reaching their inflation target and warned that more actions could be taken including changing the quantity and quality of asset purchases as well as cutting rates further. Since the BoJ did not increase the size of its QE program this could be the next option if the economy weakens further but adopting this radical form of monetary policy is a sign of the country’s desperation. They are finally recognizing the negative impact that volatility in the financial markets, the sharp decline in inflation and the slowdown in China will have on Japan’s economy. Looking ahead, the yen should be sold on rallies.

Big Trade 01.25.2016 AUD/USD Sell -2

Swing

1/27 -- Close AUDUSD at 0.7012 replace with NZD orders

1/26 -- Order to Sell AUD/USD at 0.7010 TRIGGERED

1/25 --

AUD/USD

Aggressive

Place Order to Sell AUD/USD at 0.7010

Stop 0.7210

Conservative

Place Order to Sell EUR/USD at 0.7100

Stop 0.7300

It is a new trading week and we are ready to lay out some fresh Forex Big Trade orders. Nearly all of the major currencies are in play this week with AU CPI, FOMC, RBNZ, BoJ and UK GDP on the calendar. This morning’s German IFO report was also worse than expected reinforcing ECB President Draghi’s warning that more easing could be on its way in March.

We are laying out 2 sets of orders this morning -- on the back of the IFO and ahead of AU CPI. We are also actively watching USD/JPY and USD/CAD -- 2 pairs that we want to sell higher.

New NZD/USD Big Trade Sell Order 01.19.2016 +87

Swing

Close NZD/USD trade here at 0.6408 for +87

Order to Sell NZD/USD at 0.6495 Triggered

New NZD/USD Big Trade Sell Order

Aggressive

Place Order to Sell NZD/USD at 0.6495

Stop at 0.6695

Conservative

Place Order to Sell NZD/USD at 0.6560

Stop at 0.6760

*More details to follow but dairy prices fell for the second auction in a row by more than 1%

New AUD/CHF Big Trade Order – Stopped

Swing

11/27 -- Stopped out

***11/19 -- Second Entry Triggered. AVERAGE ENTRY AT 0.7158


11/2 -- First Entry Triggered

New AUD/CHF Big Trade Order

Place Order to Sell 1 Lot AUD/CHF at 0.7045

Place Order to Sell 1 More at 0.7270

Stop for ALL 0.7437

The Australian dollar is in play this week with a RBA rate decision, retail sales, trade and PMI reports on the calendar. A small group of investors are looking for the RBA to ease and while we do not believe that the economy deteriorated enough to warrant the third rate cut this year, there are many reasons for the Reserve Bank to be dovish. Last night we learned that manufacturing activity slowed significantly and while service sector activity numbers won’t be released until after the RBA meeting, the drop in construction sector activity indicates that the slowdown is not limited to manufacturing. Labor market and inflationary conditions also softened since the last meeting and imports from China plunged. While the RBA will be encouraged by the recent easing from the PBoC and improvement in market indices, China’s response is to slowing growth. We have chosen to sell AUD versus CHF because there is little Swiss Franc risk and more importantly, on a technical basis, the franc appears to be due for a deeper correction.

Big Trade NZD/JPY – Cancelled

Swing

**Given the sharp fall in dairy prices and upcoming FOMC. We are canceling these orders for now.

Big Trade – Buy NZD/JPY

Place order to Buy 1 Lot NZD/JPY at 88.27

Place order to Buy 1 More Lot at 87.35

Stop 85.70

We like the New Zealand dollar and we like USD/JPY and this combination makes NZD/JPY an extremely attractive trade.

This afternoon the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged and told us that they see a prolonged period of interest rate stability. While this is far from the hawkish view that is typically needed to lift a currency, in an environment when investors are worried about who will cut rates next, their steady outlook proved to be extremely positive for NZD. In fact NZD/USD erased all of its earlier losses to end the day in positive territory. RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s belief that inflation will pick up when oil effect passes and that New Zealand is in a different situation than many other countries suggests that they have no intention of moving rates even though they warned that the next move in rates could be up or down -- this guidance should lead to a further recovery in the New Zealand dollar.

Meanwhile we continue to look for a stronger U.S. dollar ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision. Tomorrow’s consumer spending numbers will most likely reinforce the attractiveness of the greenback as strong non-farm payrolls, rise in gas prices and increase in spending according to Redbook point to a stronger report. The Federal Reserve is gearing up to raise interest rates and regardless of whether it comes in June or September this prospect should continue to be extremely positive for the US dollar. While Fed tightening in 2015 is widely expected a change in forward guidance next week will still lift the dollar and this event risk acts as a target for dollar bulls buying into the news. If retail sales surprised to the upside like we expect, it will harden expectations for a shift in guidance that should send the greenback to fresh multi-year highs against many major currencies going into next week’s monetary policy announcement.

The Chart

NZDJPY031215

Rather than chasing the currency pair, we prefer to buy on a retrace post news. The following 15 minute chart of NZD/JPY shows are buy levels:

Big Trade – Buy NZD/JPY

Place order to Buy 1 Lot NZD/JPY at 88.27

Place order to Buy 1 More Lot at 87.35

Stop 85.70

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Closed for +160

Swing

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Closed for +160

***BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update -- Move stop to 120.18 to lock in +160

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update -- Move Stop to 119.88 to lock in +130

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update, Move stop to 119.18 to lock in +60

First Entry Triggered at 118.58

***BK USD/JPY Big Trade Order Adjustments

Place order to Buy 1 Lot USD/JPY at 118.58

Buy 1 more lot at 117.75

Stop 116.80

***BK USD/JPY Big Trade Closed for +80

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update, Move Stop to 118.70 to lock in +80 pips. Will reload lower if we get stopped out.

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update -- Move Stop to 118.30 to lock in +40

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Alert -- Time to Buy Again

We are reloading these orders --

The Trade:

USD/JPY Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 117.90

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.75

Stop for ALL 115.35

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

It is time to Buy USD/JPY.

Negative interest rates in Switzerland and Quantitative Easing by the European Central Bank leaves the market looking for alternative safe havens. The Yen is attractive but from a fundamental perspective not nearly as alluring as the dollar because U.S. economy is actually improving while Japanese growth is struggling. The Fed is one of a select few central banks looking to raise interest rates this year with the chorus growing. Regardless of whether they choose to do so in the summer or fall doesn’t matter -- the key is that they plan to do so period and that along with the loss of the Franc as a safe haven should make the dollar more attractive. In the long run, we are still looking for USD/JPY to revisit its 121.85 December high.

USD/JPY

Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 117.90

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.75

Stop for ALL 115.35