Today’s Trades 07.27.2018 CADJPY and NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its the end of the week and the U.S. dollar is trading firmly ahead of this morning’s second quarter US GDP report. GDP growth is expected to have accelerated significantly thanks to strong retail sales and trade activity. But investors are worried that the lofty 4.2% forecast will be hard to meet, hence the hesitant rally in the greenback. The weakest currency is the Swiss Franc followed by the Australian dollar. There was no news from Switzerland but Australia reported softer PPI. Global yields are flat and stocks are experiencing minor gains. The New Zealand dollar is under pressure following softer consumer confidence numbers and we believe NZD will underperform during the North American session. The Canadian dollar on the other hand could outperform as investors hope for a NAFTA deal. We hope to close most of trades before the 8:30AM GDP report as the outcome could have a material impact on currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD
-NZD
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -JPY, -CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought CADJPY at 85.08, Stop at 84.80, Target 85.36
2. Sell NZDUSD at .6767, Stop at 6795, Target .6739

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.24.2018 EURNZD, GBPCHF, USDCAD, NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

USD/JPY is selling off for the 5th consecutive trading session and this weakness is driving the greenback lower against all of the major currencies. Yesterday’s softer existing home sales report can be blamed but ultimately, it is the trend of softer U.S. data that is encouraging profit taking in the greenback this week. There are no major U.S. economic reports on the calendar until Friday and today’s Market PMI numbers will only have limited impact on the currency. Therefore investors should keep an eye on U.S. yields because its not clear whether the selling will continue. The most important economic report released this morning was Eurozone PMIs but the data failed to help the euro as weaker activity in the service sector was offset by stronger activity in manufacturing. The strongest performing currencies this morning are the Australian dollar and sterling. AUD and NZD benefitting from the rally in the Shanghai Composite index and China’s new policies to support growth while healthier UK CBI data is helping sterling. Looking ahead, we expect the Canadian dollar to trade higher on the back of morning’s rally in oil prices and the U.S. dollar to extend its losses during North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+CAD
+GBP
+NZD
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
Mildly +EUR, +CHF
Neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDUSD at .6798, Stop at.6771, Target .6827
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3152, stop at 1.3180, Target 1.3124
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.7211, Stop at 1.7239, Target 1.7183
4. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3039, Stop at 1.3011, Target 1.3067

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.18.2018 EURJPY, NZDCAD, EURGBP, NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On Day 2 of his Congressional testimony, investors expect the same sense of optimism. USD/JPY is hovering just under 113 and while another probe above that level seems imminent, we don’t expect a material extension as the second day of his semi-annual testimony is rarely as market moving as the first. However the Beige Book, scheduled for release in the afternoon should reinforce the dollar’s positive bias. Sterling is under the greatest pressure as inflation growth slows on a consumer and producer level. CPI also fell in the Eurozone causing EURUSD to eye a break of 1.16 and GBP/USD teasing a move below 1.30. With oil prices falling further this morning, USD/CAD will try to break 1.3250. Commodity currencies in general are under pressure and we expect this same underperformance today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Short EURJPY at 131.26, stop at 131.54, Target 130.98
2. Buy NZDCAD at 8955, Stop at .8927, Target .8983
3. Buy EURGBP at .8912, Stop at .8884, Target .8940
4. Sell NZDUSD at .6757, Stop at .6785, Target .6729

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.10.2018 EURCAD, USDJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Investors are buying U.S. dollars this morning on the back of higher U.S. rates and weaker global data. In the Eurozone, the ZEW survey deteriorated in July, causing EUR/USD to finally retreat after last week’s strong rally. We are looking for the pair to test 1.17 but with significant support at that former breakout level, its not clear if there will be a meaningful break. USD/JPY is eyeing its May 111.39 high -- although there are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, we believe this level will be tested with USD/JPY extending its gains to 111.50. Sterling is under pressure from ongoing political troubles in the UK and softer than expected industrial production. While USD/CAD is up, oil prices hit new highs today and that should limit the pair’s gains. We are short EUR/CAD because we still think CAD will outperform its ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision. The worst performing currencies today are the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There’s no specific catalyst for their underperformance outside of regional weakness because business confidence increased in Australia and New Zealand credit card spending picked up in June.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
+CAD
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD,
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -AUD, -JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.1594, Stop at 1.5422, Target 1.5366
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695
3. Sell NZDUSD at .6820, Stop at .6848, Target .6792
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.28, Stop at 111 Target 111.56

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.22.2018 – EURAUD, NZDUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the Japanese Yen is trading higher against across the board today, the U.S. dollar is down against all of the major currencies except for sterling which fell on the back of weaker GDP. This divergence between the yen and the greenback reflects the battle in risk. After selling off sharply in the last 2 hours of trade, U.S. stocks futures are pointing to only a modestly lower open. Asian stocks took a hit but European stocks have stabilized. Given the recent vol in stocks it is too early to tell whether equities will resume their slide in North American trade. Meanwhile the best performing currencies this morning are comm dollars with AUD leading the gains. Canadian retail sales are scheduled for release this morning and we are seeing profit taking on long USD/CAD positions ahead of this key report. The euro has shrugged off a softer IFO report and while USD/JPY is in a clear downtrend. Jobless claims are also on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -GBP
+AUD, +NZD, +CHF
neutral JPY, mildly +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDUSD at .7333, stop at .7305, Target .7361
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5710, Stop at 1.5738, Target 1.5682
3. Sell USDCHF at .9377, Stop at .9405, Target .9349
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7819, Stop at .7791, Target .7847

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.23.2018 – EURGbP, AUDJPY, NZDCHF, NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading lower this morning with AUD/USD leading the slide. We’re finally seeing weakness in a pair with very little retracements over the past month. Although USD/JPY is also down, the greenback is better bid against most of the major currencies including the euro, which should have benefitted from a stronger ZEW. The BoJ altered its inflation assessment slightly from saying prices are skewed to the downside from weakening. The U.S. government is open again but in 3 weeks time, we’ll be revisiting shutdown risks. NAFTA talks begin today. Its the 5th round and no real progress is expected but we’ll have to see if the U.S. threatens to pull out again or the Canadians express their concerns about U.S. departure. Sterling is also under pressure and could see 1.39 while NZD holds up well amidst U.S. dollar strength.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-NZD
-AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

+JPY, +CHF
-GBP, -NZD, -AUD
-USD/JPY (But +USD vs everything else)
mildly -CAD, -EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell NZDCHF at market now .7031, Stop at .7059, Target .7003
2. Sell NZDUSD at market now .7315, stop at .7343, Target .7287
3. Bought EURGBP at .8784, Stop at .8756, Target .8812
4. Sell AUDJPY at 88.06, Stop at 88.34, Target 87.78

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD +11
USDJPY -3
EURUSD -9

NZD/USD Could Hit .6975

NZD/USD Could Hit .6975

by Kathy Lien Chart Of The Day

NZD/USD Could Hit .6975

The New Zealand dollar has been very resilient in the face of mostly weaker data. Dairy prices dropped by the largest amount in a year, the trade deficit widened while Q3 GDP growth slowed. Although investors were relieved that GDP did not contract as much as it could have given the recent weakness in trade and retail sales, the data still shows a moderating economy. As a result, we continue to look for challenging times ahead as the softness of dairy prices hits farmers. Risk appetite is the only thing keeping NZD/USD supported and we may not see much of that next week.

Technically, NZD/USD has been consolidating near the top of its recent range. With many moving averages hanging above on the daily and weekly chart, we expect gains to be capped at 0.7050 and look for a pullback to at least .6925.

Today’s Trading Plan for 12.22.2017 – GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDNZD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It should be no surprise that today is a subdued day in the FX markets. Monday is Christmas, Tuesday is Boxing day and many European traders have already left early to spend the long weekend with their families. There are a flurry of U.S. economic reports due for release this morning but it should also be a quiet day in North America with limited participation. The dollar retains its bid after the Congress approved the bill to fund the government through January, avoiding a shutdown. In Spain, the Separatist parties won a majority in the election which is a problem for the national government as it has empowered the region’s ousted separatist leader to call for new talks. GDP numbers are due for release from Canada and they are likely to be firmer, helping loonie retain its gains. AUD is strong while NZD is weak. GBP is stuck in a 30 pip range near 1.34.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

mildly +USD
+AUD
-NZD
-GBP
-EUR

*Trading Biases*

mildly +USD,
+AUD, +CAD,
-NZD, -GBP
mildly -EUR, -CHF
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell NZDUSD at .7014, Stop at .7042, Target .6986
2. Sell GBPUSD at .13382, Stop at 1.3410, Target 1.3354 (though may not stick with it)
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.1006, Stop at 1.0978, Target 1.1034

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 10.25.2017 – NZDUSD, EURUSD, GBPJPY

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its another mixed day for the U.S. dollar, which is trading lower against European currencies and higher versus the Japanese Yen and comm dollars. AUD and NZD are singing to their own tunes with weaker data and political troubles hampering their gains. CAD on the other hand remains weak ahead of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement with USD/CAD breaking above 1.2700. GBP is benefitting from stronger than expected Q3 GDP and the EURO is holding bid ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. We’re finally beginning to see some big moves in the FX markets with many EUR and GBP crosses hitting multiyear highs driven by the divergence between the economic and monetary policy outlooks for Europe vs. Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Looking ahead we expect these divergences to continue.

We’ll be live trading Bank of Canada’s rate decision with everyone beginning at 9:45 AM NY / 13:45 GMT. Usual daily webinar link.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+GBP
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP,
-AUD, -NZD, -CAD, -JPY
mildly -CAD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell NZDUSD at market now .6884, Stop at .6914, Target .6864
2. Buy EURUSD at market now 1.1778, Stop at 1.1748, Target 1.1798
3. Buy GBPJPY at 151.21, Stop at 150.91, Target 151.41

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.12.2017 – NZDUSD, NZDJPY, USDCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of currencies this morning with the European currencies under pressure, the commodity currencies trading strongly and the U.S. dollar mixed as a result. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes were perceived as less hawkish but the odds of a December rate hike did not change, explaining the uneven demand for the greenback. Euro shrugged off stronger industrial production to find resistance below 1.19 as the enthusiasm for Spanish assets diminished. Sterling u-turned after hitting its August high during the Asia trading session. There’s little to explain the strength of AUD and NZD outside of short covering after strong downtrends.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
-CAD
-GBP
mildly -USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF, -NZD, -CAD
mildly -USD
neutral JPY, AUD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell NZDUSD at .7113, Stop at .7143, Target .7083
2. Sell NZDJPY at 79.92, Stop at 80.22, Target 79.72
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2474, Stop at 1.2444, Target 1.2494

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

NZD/USD Destined for 71 Cents?

NZD/USD Destined for 71 Cents?

by Kathy Lien Chart Of The Day

NZD/USD Destined for 71 Cents?

For the second day in a row, the New Zealand dollar was the worst performing currency. Unlike yesterday when the decline was drive by U.S. dollar strength the latest move was driven by local factors. Last night, the New Zealand government provided its latest economic update ahead of next month’s election and while they forecast a significantly larger budget surplus this year, they expect growth for the year to June to be 2.6%, down from a previous estimate of 3.2% and for fiscal year 2018, they now expect 3.5% growth instead of 3.7%. These lower growth projections combined with the Reserve Bank’s unease about the currency and talk of intervention puts NZDUSD on track to test 71 and possibly even 70 cents.

Technically, today’s decline has taken NZD/USD below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2014 to 2015 decline but a late day bounce leaves the pair settling right above the Fib level. If NZD/USD breaches 72 cents, there will be some support at the 100-day near 0.7165 but the main support level should be 71 cents. There’s also a clear head and shoulders pattern that confirms our view that the path of least resistance for NZD/USD should be lower.

Today’s Trading Plan 08.22.2017 – EURCHF, GBPUSD, NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning. We’re getting closer to Fed Summit at Jackson Hole and traders are unwinding their short positions. At the same time dollar bulls are encouraged by the lack of fresh antagonism from North Korea and inflammatory comments from President Trump during his rally last night. U.S. rates are up, providing further support to the greenback. The weaker than expected German ZEW survey pressured the euro lower and sterling is following suit, dropping below 1.2850. The worst performer is the New Zealand dollar, but outside of the RBNZ’s outlook, there’s no specific catalyst for the move. Canadian retail sales are scheduled for release this evening -- we believe the data will be weaker given the drop in wholesale sales and if thats true, it could extend the recovery for USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +JPY
-EUR, -GBP -AUD, -NZD
neutral CAD, CHF

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURCHF at market now 1.1350, Stop 1.1390, Target 1.1330
2. Sell GBPUSD at market now 1.2830, Stop 1.2879, Target 1.2810
3. Sell NZDUSD at market now 0.7284, Stop at .7324, Target 0.7264

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Monday -39
Tues +40
Wed -18
Thurs -4
Friday +45

Total +22