Today’s Trades 07.31.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDCHF, EURAUD

Weekly Calendar Calls

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The Japanese Yen is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning after the Bank of Japan failed to raise interest rates. Although the BoJ said they would allow long term yields to “move upward and downward depending on economic and price developments,” they intend to keep rates near zero. They lowered their inflation forecast and pledged to keep extraordinary policies in place for an “extended period of time,” widening the gap between Fed, BoE and ECB policies. The Yen is the worst performer and the strength that we are seeing in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY should continue in the North American session. Euro in particular in performing well thanks to stronger Eurozone inflation and German retail sales data that allowed investors to shrug off weaker EZ GDP. Sterling is also up but GBP/USD is struggling to break above the 20-day SMA near 1.3160. AUD is outperforming NZD as the larger increase in AU building contrasts with the drop in NZ business confidence. The US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with US personal income, spending, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence numbers scheduled for release alongside CAD GDP. The greenback is rising despite a healthy drop in Treasury yields, but the weakness may be limited to pairs like EUR/USD as BoJ could keeps USD/JPY bid.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-JPY
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-JPY, -NZD, -AUD
-USD but +USDJPY
mildly +CAD, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1726 , Stop at 1.1699, Target 1.1755
2. Buy EURAUD at 1.5908, Stop at 1.5780, Target 1.5836
3. Sell NZDCHF at .6733, Stop at .6761, Target .6705
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.53, stop at 111.25, Target 111.81

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.02.2018 – EURJPY, USDJPY, NZDCHF, AUDNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning while the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are trading higher across the board. Asian and European equities followed U.S. stocks lowered with Dow futures now pointing to another day of weakness for U.S. stocks. President Trump’s tariffs have elicited an antagonistic response from China who said they could take measures to protect their own interests. Canada has also blasted this move while the European Commission says they have counter-measures ready against U.S. tariffs and will discuss a response on Monday March 5. We can’t imagine all of this going well and the risk of retaliation will continue to weigh on market sentiment. We expect further weakness for the yen crosses and think EUR will be vulnerable to profit taking ahead of this weekend’s political events. Prime Minister May will be speaking shortly and we doubt that the market will be satisfied or sold on her plans for Brexit. The Canadian dollar extended its losses ahead of its monthly and quarterly GDP reports. The New Zealand dollar is underperforming the Australian dollar and we believe that is likely to continue.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+JPY
+CHF
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CAD, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF
mildly -AUD, -EUR
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Sell EURJPY at 129.72, Stop at 130.00, Target 129.44
2. Sell USDJPY at 105.33, stop at 105.61, Target 105.05
3. Sell NZDCHF at .6765, Stop at .6793, Target .6737
4. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0719, Stop at 1.0691, Target 1.0747

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.23.2018 – EURGbP, AUDJPY, NZDCHF, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading lower this morning with AUD/USD leading the slide. We’re finally seeing weakness in a pair with very little retracements over the past month. Although USD/JPY is also down, the greenback is better bid against most of the major currencies including the euro, which should have benefitted from a stronger ZEW. The BoJ altered its inflation assessment slightly from saying prices are skewed to the downside from weakening. The U.S. government is open again but in 3 weeks time, we’ll be revisiting shutdown risks. NAFTA talks begin today. Its the 5th round and no real progress is expected but we’ll have to see if the U.S. threatens to pull out again or the Canadians express their concerns about U.S. departure. Sterling is also under pressure and could see 1.39 while NZD holds up well amidst U.S. dollar strength.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-NZD
-AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

+JPY, +CHF
-GBP, -NZD, -AUD
-USD/JPY (But +USD vs everything else)
mildly -CAD, -EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell NZDCHF at market now .7031, Stop at .7059, Target .7003
2. Sell NZDUSD at market now .7315, stop at .7343, Target .7287
3. Bought EURGBP at .8784, Stop at .8756, Target .8812
4. Sell AUDJPY at 88.06, Stop at 88.34, Target 87.78

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD +11
USDJPY -3
EURUSD -9

Today’s Trades 01.22.2018 – USDCAD, EURUSD, NZDCHF, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There are 2 big stories impacting the FX market today – the US government shutdown and the SPD’s vote to begin coalition talks with German Chancellor Merkel. These political developments helped euro take one step forward and the dollar one step back. Euro is one of the strongest performers this morning whereas the dollar is the weakest. However the measured decline in the greenback reflects the hope that a deal will be reached quickly. Amidst active negotiations, the Senate will be voting at noon today to extend funding through Feb 8 and reopen the government. Its not clear whether the bill will pass but the Democrats may be willing to grant the Republicans a few more days to hold votes on extending the status for DACA residents. Meanwhile the sell-off in the greenback has driven the commodity currencies higher with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains. No U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, so all eyes will be on Washington.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
-USD
+AUD
+NZD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-USD, -CHF, -JPY
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCAD at market 1.2461, Stop at 1.2489, Target 1.2433
2. Sell CHFJPY at 115.21, Stop at 115.49, Target 114.93
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.2260, Stop at 1.2232, Target 1.2288
4. Buy NZDCHF at .7022, Stop at .6994, target .7050

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.13.2017 – USDJPY, EURGBP, NZDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading lower this morning including USD/JPY which makes risk aversion the main driver of currency flows. With U.S., German and U.KL yields pointing lower, we could see continued weakness in the North American session. 10 year Treasury yields continue to reject 2.4% despite the increased confidence that Congress will agree on a tax plan. Instead USD/JPY is taking its cue from U.S. rates and Japanese stocks which fell for the 4th straight trading session. The biggest loser is GBP which has fallen sharply on Brexit concerns. This is a big week for GBP with UK CPI, retail sales and labor data scheduled for release. EUR on the other hand is quiet while the comm dollars remain under pressure.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-GBP
-NZD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF,
Mildly -AUD
neutral CAD, EUR

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell USDJPY at market now 113.34, Stop at 113.62, Target 113.06
2. Buy EURGBP at .8899, Stop .8871, Target .8927
2. Sell EURJPY at 132.05, Stop at 132.33, Target 131.77
4. Sell NZDCHF at .6871, Stop at .6899, Target .6842

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trading Plan 09.14.2017 – NZDCAD, NZDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are live trading the Bank of England meeting this morning so that will be our main focus. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar is losing its momentum after having raced to fresh highs overnight. However the prospect of a stronger CPI report keeps us from selling the currency this morning. With that in mind, we could be near a top for a greenback as EUR/USD and USD/JPY hover near key technical levels. AUD is struggling to hold onto its post employment report gains while NZD is lagging behind. USD/CAD appears to be in the process of rolling over.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-NZD
+CAD
+EUR

*Trading Biases*

mildly -USD
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF
-NZD
mildly +AUD
neutral USD, JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at 0.8806, Stop at 0.8836, Target 0.8786
2. Sell NZDCHF at market now 0.6987, Stop at 0.7017, Target 0.6967

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.06.2017 – NZDCAD and NZDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With about 48 hours to go until the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, today will be an important day for the U.S. dollar. U.S. rates are trading sharply higher in anticipation of the ADP, Challenger and Non-manufacturing ISM reports but the dollar is mixed. The greenback is down versus European currencies, up against AUD and NZD and little changed versus the Yen. The FOMC minutes failed to inspire new demand for the dollar and now we’re left with the jobs report. If today’s numbers are good, investors will start to position for stronger labor market numbers but if they are weak, they won’t hesitate to dump dollars as they worry that non-farm payrolls will once again contradict the Fed’s optimism. European yields are also up sharply which means if the U.S. reports are strong, EURJPY and GBPJPY could trade sharply higher.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+CAD
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CAD, CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Place Order to Sell NZDCHF at 0.7019, Stop at 0.7069, Target 0.6989
2. Place Order to Sell NZDCAD at 0.9425, Stop at 0.9475, Target 0.9395

All pending orders canceled by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT
All open day trades closed by 4PM NY / 20 GMT

NZD/CHF to Hit 69 Cents

NZD/CHF to Hit 69 Cents

Chart Of The Day

Last night’s stronger than expected New Zealand trade balance reinforces our view that New Zealand’s economy is on upside. The country’s trade surplus reached its greatest level since March 2015 as exports hit a 2 year high. Dairy exports in particular rose 35% but gains were also seen in demand for log and wine. These improvements should ease the central bank’s concerns and pave the way for the currency’s outperformance. We like buying New Zealand dollars against the Swiss Franc because European currencies have peaked and NZD/CHF is a lower vol EUR/NZD trade.

Technically, the pair has broken above the 20-day SMA and appears poised to test/break 69 cents. There’s significant support below 67 cents but the 100-week SMA near 0.6782 should also limit losses.

Today’s Trading Plan 05.24.2017 – AUD/NZD, NZD/CHF, USD/CHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We have a busy day ahead of us for the Canadian dollar and the U.S. dollar. The morning starts with the Bank of Canada rate decision and that will be followed by the FOMC minutes in the afternoon. The greenback is trading with a slight bid and the same is true for the Canadian dollar. GBP made a run for 1.30 again last night, backed off that level and is still struggling to figure out which way it wants to break (we think the break will be to the downside). The best performing currency this morning is the New Zealand dollar which is benefitting from last night’s strong trade balance and anti-AUD flows which is driven by Moody’s downgrade of Chinese debt. We think NZD will outperform and USD will stay bid ahead of the Fed minutes, which is why we are +USDCHF and +NZDCHF.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

NZD strength
USD strength
CHF weakness

*Currencies we plan on day trading and the direction*
*These could change during the day, but for now

We will be trading around these themes –

+NZD
-AUD
+USD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+NZD
-AUD
mildly +USD
mildly -EUR, -GBP, -JPY
neutral CAD

:triangular_flag_on_post: *Starting Trades*

OPENED AT MARKET NZDCHF Buy
ENTRY – 0.68659
STOP – 0.68159
TAKE PROFIT – 0.68959

CLOSED EURUSD Sell
ENTRY – 1.11824
EXIT – 1.11887
RESULT -6.3 pips

OPENED AT MARKET AUDNZD Sell
ENTRY – 1.06297
STOP – 1.06797
TAKE PROFIT – 1.05997

BK NZD/CHF +55

Swing

Out of NZD/CHF for +55

BK NZD/CHF Update. Move stop up to 0.6535 to lock in more pips

BK – NZD/CHF Big Trade – Close half at 0.6555, Move stop to 0.6500. We got a blended price of 0.6500 (entered at 0.6475 and 0.6525) so the stop is now at breakeven and we banked +55 on the trade

We still LIKE the NZD/CHF carry trade and we are laying out orders to get back in.

NZD/CHF Big Trade – The Ultimate Carry Trade

The Trade:

NZD/CHF


Place Order to Buy 1 lot NZD/CHF at 0.6525

Place Order to Buy 1 more lot at 0.6475

Stop for whole position at 0.6430

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—–

We Like the New Zealand Dollar

A few weeks ago, we bought ourselves some NZD/CAD on the premise that dairy prices would bottom before oil. Today, oil prices are down 4% while dairy prices settled at higher levels for the third auction in a row. We traded the currency pair, taken money off the table and are now shifting our focus to the ultimate carry trade – NZD/CHF.

Lets start with the New Zealand dollar. NZD fell sharply today on the back of a more modest increase in dairy prices. While it would have been nice to see dairy prices rise by a larger amount, the fact that prices increased at the last 3 auctions is GREAT news for New Zealand. Earlier this month, dairy prices rose 3.6% the biggest increase in 12 months – matching that pace would have been unrealistic. Considering that dairy is New Zealand’s biggest export earner, accounting for approximately 30% by value, this increase will bolster the confidence of the RBNZ who meets next week.

The last time we heard from the central bank, they were surprisingly comfortable with the current level of monetary policy and while they felt that the New Zealand dollar value was unjustified and unsustainable, they also believed that further policy adjustment will be necessary after a period of assessment. In other words, they are still looking to raise interest rates – eventually. Their hawkish monetary policy bias and 3.5% interest rate will prevent NZD from falling much further and instead lead to a recovery in the very near future especially if the ECB rolls out Quantitative Easing, forcing investors to look elsewhere for yield.

NZD/CHF – The Ultimate Carry Trade

Buying the New Zealand dollar against the Swiss Franc is the ultimate carry trade. In addition to abandoning their 1.20 peg, the Swiss National Bank also deepened the negative rate environment by cutting rates 50 basis points to negative 0.75%. Last week, the SNB made the conscious decision to shift from exchange rate to interest rate driven monetary policy. If the recent appreciation in the Franc poses a major threat to the Swiss economy, they could lower interest rates further – increasing the attractiveness of selling Francs. Even if they don’t and other central banks lower rates, NZD will become more attractive as a result. We also believe that most if not all of the long EUR/CHF trades have been flushed out with all stops already triggered.

Chart – NZD/CHF Headed for 70 cents.

We think NZD/CAD is eventually headed for 0.70 or higher and our stop of 0.6500 is well below pre-SNB levels. Here’s the trade:

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

BK Big Trades – Stopped out of NZD/CHF

Swing

BK Big Trades – Stopped out of NZD/CHF

NZD/CHF Big Trade – The Ultimate Carry Trade

The Trade:

NZD/CHF


Buy NZD/CHF at market (now 0.6715)

Stop for whole position at 0.6500

Targeting move to and above 70 cents

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—–

We Like the New Zealand Dollar

A few weeks ago, we bought ourselves some NZD/CAD on the premise that dairy prices would bottom before oil. Today, oil prices are down 4% while dairy prices settled at higher levels for the third auction in a row. We traded the currency pair, taken money off the table and are now shifting our focus to the ultimate carry trade – NZD/CHF.

Lets start with the New Zealand dollar. NZD fell sharply today on the back of a more modest increase in dairy prices. While it would have been nice to see dairy prices rise by a larger amount, the fact that prices increased at the last 3 auctions is GREAT news for New Zealand. Earlier this month, dairy prices rose 3.6% the biggest increase in 12 months – matching that pace would have been unrealistic. Considering that dairy is New Zealand’s biggest export earner, accounting for approximately 30% by value, this increase will bolster the confidence of the RBNZ who meets next week.

The last time we heard from the central bank, they were surprisingly comfortable with the current level of monetary policy and while they felt that the New Zealand dollar value was unjustified and unsustainable, they also believed that further policy adjustment will be necessary after a period of assessment. In other words, they are still looking to raise interest rates – eventually. Their hawkish monetary policy bias and 3.5% interest rate will prevent NZD from falling much further and instead lead to a recovery in the very near future especially if the ECB rolls out Quantitative Easing, forcing investors to look elsewhere for yield.

NZD/CHF – The Ultimate Carry Trade

Buying the New Zealand dollar against the Swiss Franc is the ultimate carry trade. In addition to abandoning their 1.20 peg, the Swiss National Bank also deepened the negative rate environment by cutting rates 50 basis points to negative 0.75%. Last week, the SNB made the conscious decision to shift from exchange rate to interest rate driven monetary policy. If the recent appreciation in the Franc poses a major threat to the Swiss economy, they could lower interest rates further – increasing the attractiveness of selling Francs. Even if they don’t and other central banks lower rates, NZD will become more attractive as a result. We also believe that most if not all of the long EUR/CHF trades have been flushed out with all stops already triggered.

Chart – NZD/CHF Headed for 70 cents.

We think NZD/CAD is eventually headed for 0.70 or higher and our stop of 0.6500 is well below pre-SNB levels. Here’s the trade:

NZD/CHF

Buy NZD/CHF at market (now 0.6715)

Stop for whole position at 0.6500

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

BKSWING 2 New GBP, Cancel NZD/CHF Order

Swing

Tomorrow’s Scottish referendum is hands down the most important event risk for the British pound this week. This is one of those events that can easily trigger a 150 to 300 pip move in a currency. Although we believe that Scotland will vote to remain part of the UK, if they don’t it will be a larger surprise for the currency. As such we are placing 2 orders in the GBP to take advantage of this opportunity. Cancel the NZD/CHF order but please remember we are STILL long EUR/CHF and maintain a EUR/USD Sell Order

1. Place order to Buy GBP/CHF at 1.5458
Stop at 1.5398
Close 1/2 at 1.5488, move stop to breakeven
Close rest at 1.5875

2. Place order to Sell GBP/USD at 1.6025
Stop at 1.6085
Close 1/2 at 1.5995, move stop to breakeven
Close rest at 1.5575

We still have the following pending order:

1. Place order to Sell EUR/USD at 1.2835
Stop at 1.2895
Close 1/2 at 1.2805, move stop to breakeven
Close rest at 1.2675

***Remember, if 2 orders trigger without one hitting T1 first, all other orders are canceled