Today’s Trades 09.25.2017 – EURUSD, NZDCAD, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The biggest story in the FX market this morning are the unsatisfactory election results in German and New Zealand. While the incumbent in both countries won, Germany failed to achieve the grand coalition they hoped for and in New Zealand, a coalition government is needed. The political dynamics around the world are shifting as assured victories turn into weak wins. The euro and New Zealand dollars were hit hard as result and appear poised for further losses. USD/JPY is up this morning after Japan announced plans to hold a snap election. However today’s move is not supported by yields which are starting the day lower. There was no news out of the UK but the currency also appears positioned for a deeper short term correction. The Australian and Canadian dollars on the other hand are performing better than its peers and could continue to outperform some of the weaker currencies like EUR and NZD

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
+USD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -NZD, -CHF, -GBP
+USD, AUD,
neutral CAD, JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.1881, Stop at 1.1911, Target 1.1861
2. Sell NZDCAD at market now .8977, Stop at 0.9007, Target 0.8957
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.4928, Stop at 1.4958, Target 1.4908

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

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Today’s Trading Plan 09.14.2017 – NZDCAD, NZDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are live trading the Bank of England meeting this morning so that will be our main focus. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar is losing its momentum after having raced to fresh highs overnight. However the prospect of a stronger CPI report keeps us from selling the currency this morning. With that in mind, we could be near a top for a greenback as EUR/USD and USD/JPY hover near key technical levels. AUD is struggling to hold onto its post employment report gains while NZD is lagging behind. USD/CAD appears to be in the process of rolling over.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-NZD
+CAD
+EUR

*Trading Biases*

mildly -USD
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF
-NZD
mildly +AUD
neutral USD, JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at 0.8806, Stop at 0.8836, Target 0.8786
2. Sell NZDCHF at market now 0.6987, Stop at 0.7017, Target 0.6967

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

NZDCAD – Back to 9000?

NZDCAD – Back to 9000?

Chart Of The Day

Overnight news that New Zealand center right has recovered its lead in the polls ahead of the national election on September 23, sent kiwi sharply higher and turned the commodity pair from a relative weakness performer to relative strength. The news that center-left held the lead for the past few weeks has weighed heavy on kiwi with markets worried that Labor would enact a series of anti-growth policies.

So the relief in the pair has been palpable and if Conservatives of the National party manage to hold on to their lead through election and hold on to power the kiwi could extend its gains. Meanwhile the loonie looks like its exhausted. USDCAD has found serious support above the 1.2000 level and that makes NZDCAD and interesting long as the pair tries to climb back towards the .9000 level.

Today’s Trading Plan for 07.25.2017 – NZDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With 24 hours to go before FOMC, USD/JPY continues to recover its losses. But today is not a day marked by USD strength as the greenback is unchanged to slightly lower versus EUR, AUD and GBP. This morning’s better than expected German IFO reported helped stave off further losses for EURO and the consumer confidence report will be in focus during the North American trading session. USD/CAD is still hovering near 1.25, AUD is extending its gains ahead of tonight’s CPI right while NZD is underperforming on the back reports of a deadly cow disease affecting one of the herds. Trading should be relatively subdued as traders count down to FOMC.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-NZD
-CHF
+EUR
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

-NZD, -CHF, -JPY
+AUD
mildly +USD, +EUR
neutral GBP, CAD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at market now 0.9294, Stop at 0.9333, Target 0.9273
2. Place Order to Sell USDCHF at 0.9470, Stop at 0.9510, Target 0.9450

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.20.2017 – NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Thursday is already off to a wild start with the USD rebounding and GBP, AUD giving up post data gains. Reversal is the theme of the day but the fundamentals haven’t changed. The Australian labor market is doing very well, US growth is slowing and the outlook for the UK is mixed. The ECB rate decision is the main focus this morning and we’re not surprised that the currency has been hit by profit taking. As we’ll be live trading ECB starting 8:15 NY Time / 12:15 GMT / 10:15 AEST, we’re only taking one trade this morning in NZD/CAD. New Zealand fundamentals remain weak and Canada’s bright – so NZD/CAD could see further losses

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-GBP
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD
neutral EUR, CHF, AUD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at 0.9267, Stop at 0.9317, Target 0.9237

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan for 07.18.2017 – NZDCAD, AUDUSD, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are starting the NY trading the session with the U.S. dollar under heavy selling pressure. President Trump is losing support from members of his own party for the repeal of Obamacare. With 2 more Republican Senators saying they would oppose the repeal, they are now 2 votes short and this failure raises questions about the Trump Administration’s broader economic stimulus strategies. The dollar’s weakness took EUR to 1 year highs above 1.15 (before ECB) and AUD to 2 year highs. The only currency that did not benefit from the dollar ’s decline was GBP which took a hit from softer inflation. Interestingly enough, NZ also reported stagnant price pressures but the currency recovered all of its losses and is trading higher against the greenback. With fiscal troubles haunting the dollar now, we believe that further losses are likely as investors grow more skeptical of the Fed’s hawkishness. With the EUR now up nearly 10% year to date, ECB President Draghi may tone down his hawkishness in fear of stoking a runaway rally in the currency on Thursday.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+AUD
-GBP
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +AUD, +CAD
-USD, -GBP
neutral JPY, NZD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at market now 0.9272, Stop at 0.9322, Target 0.9242
2. Buy AUDUSD at market now 0.7929, Stop at 0.7889, Target 0.7949
3. Place Order to Buy EURGBP at 0.8865, Stop at 0.8815, Target 0.8895
4. Place Order to Sell USDJPY at 112.20, Stop at 112.70, Target 111.90

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.14.2017 – NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Investors are quietly waiting for the U.S. retail sales report this morning for guidance on where the U.S. dollar should trade next. With U.S. rates down slightly, the greenback is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies. The best performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar which rose to new year to date highs on the back of a widening yield spread over the U.S. dollar. The New Zealand dollar on the other hand failed to participate in the rally as the June PMI report shows ongoing vulnerabilities in the economy. CAD remains firm while EUR and GBP hold onto recent gains. A lot could change with the U.S. retail sales report so we are weary of taking any major positions before this key event.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
-NZD
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CAD, +AUD
-CHF, -NZD
neutral USD, JPY

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCHF a market now 0.7078, Stop at 0.7128, Target 0.7048

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.06.2017 – NZDCAD and NZDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With about 48 hours to go until the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, today will be an important day for the U.S. dollar. U.S. rates are trading sharply higher in anticipation of the ADP, Challenger and Non-manufacturing ISM reports but the dollar is mixed. The greenback is down versus European currencies, up against AUD and NZD and little changed versus the Yen. The FOMC minutes failed to inspire new demand for the dollar and now we’re left with the jobs report. If today’s numbers are good, investors will start to position for stronger labor market numbers but if they are weak, they won’t hesitate to dump dollars as they worry that non-farm payrolls will once again contradict the Fed’s optimism. European yields are also up sharply which means if the U.S. reports are strong, EURJPY and GBPJPY could trade sharply higher.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+CAD
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CAD, CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Place Order to Sell NZDCHF at 0.7019, Stop at 0.7069, Target 0.6989
2. Place Order to Sell NZDCAD at 0.9425, Stop at 0.9475, Target 0.9395

All pending orders canceled by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT
All open day trades closed by 4PM NY / 20 GMT

NZDCAD – More Upside Left?

NZDCAD – More Upside Left?

Chart Of The Day

Kiwi has been on a tear lately, hitting the .7100 figure in late US trade today. The move has been driven by lower US rates which make the New Zealand currency an attractive carry trade.

In the meantime, the loonie is again under pressure as oil continues to struggle with $50/bbl level. As long as crude cannot break through the $50/bbl resistance layer the loonie will continue to underperform and NZDCAD should inch towards the .9600 mark. The calendar is generally barren for either country for the next few days, but Canada does have it GDP tomorrow and if that number misses the forecast, the pair could extend its gains as the week proceeds.

NZD/CAD Headed to 0.9300?

NZD/CAD Headed to 0.9300?

Chart Of The Day

NZD/CAD Headed to 0.9300?

We have laid out our case for selling NZD/CAD in #1_best_wkly_big_trad and they center on the political uncertainty in New Zealand following Prime Minister Key’s resignation and the prospect of stronger Canadian data combined with optimism from the Bank of Canada. On a technical basis, the 20-day SMA is crossing below the 50-day SMA and there is tremendous resistance above current levels. The 200-day SMA sits at 0.9488 with the MA cross mentioned above at 0.9540. There’s also a head and shoulders pattern forming in NZD/CAD. We expect the currency pair to drop back down to 94 cents and if we are right on the CAD, we could even see it hit 93 cents. A break above 0.96 cents would be needed to negate our bearish view.

NZD/CAD to Break 95 Cents

NZD/CAD to Break 95 Cents

Chart Of The Day

NZD/CAD to Break 95 Cents

NZD/CAD collapsed today after OPEC announced its first production cut in 8 years. According to OPEC sources, output will be reduced by 750k barrels to 32.5 million barrels a day. The cut won’t take place until November and a committee will be set up to determine the level of reduction for each member. Oil prices jumped more than 4.5% in response and the highly correlated Canadian dollar soared as a result. While we wouldn’t be surprised by some back peddling between now and November, this is a historic moment and one that should have a lasting impact on the Canadian dollar. We expect USD/CAD to drop to 1.3000 and even greater losses for NZD/CAD thanks to the RBNZ’s dovish bias.

The currency pair has broken below the 20-day SMA and the next stop should be 95 cents. We don’t see any significant support for the currency pair until the 50-day SMA at 0.9450. Any retracements should be limited to 96 cents and probably even capped at the 20-SMA at 0.9570

NZDCAD – Flameout at .9700?

NZDCAD – Flameout at .9700?

Chart Of The Day

Although tomorrow the price action will be dominated by the FOMC rate decision, we also have RBNZ on tap and it could move the markets in kiwi pairs in a big way. Over the past several days NZD/CAD has been in a torrid uptrend boosted by continued carry trade flows into the kiwi and the weakness in CAD due to correction in oil.

Today, however, NZD/CAD traced out a classic shooting star formation that may be a hint of things to come if the RBNZ decides to jawbone the pair lower or worse the Fed surprises and hikes rates. A rate hike by the Fed would cause massive profit taking out of the carry while the CAD is unlikely to be sold so severely. Therefore, any sharp surprise from either central bank could push the NZDCAD pair down to .9500 while .9800 remains the upside.