Today’s Trading Plan 07.07.2017 – LIVE Trading NFP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Today is non-farm payrolls day so we are NOT initiating any new #2 trades but there’s no doubt that the dollar is strong going into the jobs report. Instead, we’ll be LIVE trading NFP starting 8:15AM NY Time / 12:15 GMT.

With USD/JPY racing to a high of 113.85 overnight, investors have completely forgotten about yesterday’s softer ADP report. This sentiment is shared by bond traders who have taken yields slightly higher this morning. A lot is at stake today -- if non-farm payrolls miss, Yellen’s credibility becomes a serious issue and investors will dump dollars ahead of her semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy next week. If they are strong, USD/JPY should break 114 and hit its 2 month high of 114.37.

After yesterday’s strong move, euro is hanging tight ahead of NFPs. If it dips, we’ll be looking to buy. The worst performing currency this morning is GBP, which was hit hard by softer data. As we said when we laid out our -GBP #1_easy_2follow_trades, data is not confirming the hawkish rhetoric of BoE officials. Further losses are likely, but we’ll have to see how NFPs fare first.

Canada will also be releasing its labor market numbers this morning along with IVEY PMI later in the day -- these numbers will shape expectations for next week’s Bank of Canada meeting.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

neutral USD, CAD ahead of labor data
-GBP
+EUR
+AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+EUR, +AUD, +CHF
-GBP, -NZD, -JPY
neutral USD, CAD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

All pending orders canceled by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT
All open day trades closed by 4PM NY / 20 GMT

NZDUSD Big Trade 05.09.2016 – LIVE

Swing

Triggered on NZD/USD Entry

NZD/USD Big Trade Orders

Place Order to Sell NZD/USD at 0.6785

Stop at 0.6950

The U.S. dollar remains in control this morning and its strength is driving all of the commodity currencies lower. Last night’s Chinese trade numbers illustrate the challenges facing countries supplying to China. Although the trade balance improved exports plunged, which is a sign of big trouble for countries like New Zealand. AUD is also a sell but it more deeply oversold and vulnerable to a sharper recovery than NZD.

BK Big Trade USD/CAD Long 05.04.2016 +53

Swing

5/4 -- Close USD/CAD at market 1.2873

Moved quickly we hit 1.2858 for +53

Reload at 1.2825, Stop at 1.2625

Buy USD/CAD at market (now 1.2805)

Stop 1.2630

We’ve gotten a serious trend change in USD/CAD after this morning’s horrid Canadian trade balance numbers. Friday’s employment report is likely to show weakness as well after the strong numbers from the prior month. A break above 1.2800 paves the way for move to 1.3000.

NZD/CAD Big Trade 05.02.2016 – LIVE

Swing

NZD/CAD Trade Triggered, Set Profit Target at 0.8750

New NZD/CAD Big Trade Order

Place Order to Sell NZD/CAD at 0.8800

Stop at 0.8910

Fundamentally we’ve seen strong gains in NZD and CAD but recent economic reports show more underlying strength in the Canada vs. NZ economy. Friday’s Q1 GDP report surprised to the upside, Canadian retail sales are up, consumer prices increased and over 40k jobs were created in the month of March driving the unemployment rate down to 7.1% from 7.3%. New Zealand in contrasts battles with a wider trade deficit, weaker manufacturing and service sector activity. This is an important week for Canada. Oil prices are strong, creating the ideal conditions for a resumption of the downtrend in NZD/CAD. Technically, we’ve seen nice bounce in NZD/CAD off the,lows and NZD/CAD is one of our most successful ValueTrader currency pairs with 86.67% accuracy this year. 88 cents is also significant resistance -- making it the perfect level to be faded.

CADJPY Big Trade 04.18.2016 -157

Swing

Close CAD/JPY Trade at market (now 86.37)

Its breaking all resistance as CAD soars

4/18 Triggered

New CAD/JPY Order

Place Order to Sell CAD/JPY at 84.80

Stop at 86.80

There are 2 reasons why we like selling CAD/JPY. First oil prices are falling following the disappointment in Doha and we believe this move could put additional pressure on oil and carve out a near term bottom in the Canadian dollar. We are also bearish US dollars and the continuous cycle of earthquakes in Japan makes us worried that more damage could hit the nation. Each tremor has led to a bout of yen strength and between our bearish outlook for the dollar and bullish outlook for the yen, we believe that the Yen component of the trade should also drive CAD/JPY down.

EUR/USD Big Trade Order 4.12.2016 -130

Swing

4/13
Out of EURUSD

4/13 -- Move EUR/USD Stop up to 1.1260 -- we’ll buy again lower if the stop is hit because if it breaks 1.1270 then its headed to 1.1200 and maybe even 1.1160

4/12 -- Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390 TRIGGERED

Place Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390

Stop at 1.1190

The trend in euro has been strong and we still think the pair is aiming for 1.1500 and higher. The market detests dollars right now and the emergency Fed meeting tomorrow suggests that something is afoot. Especially since it comes hours before Yellen meets with President Obama. These are closed door meetings so no comments will be made but there’s certainly reasons to believe that there are lingering concerns about the U.S. economy. Also, the euro is being driven by risk this week and we believe that China will report higher exports which should help boost risk appetite and in turn the euro.

Big Trade USD/JPY 03.04.2016 +63

Swing

3/10 Close USD/JPY at market Close USD/JPY Long trade at 113.95 for +63)

3/7 Buy USD/JPY here at market 113.32 (looks like its finding support and we don’t want to miss the trade) Stop 111.32. This replaces the previous USD/JPY order

If you didnt change it, you’re probably TRIGGERED

3/4 -- Place Order to Buy USD/JPY at 113.28

Stop at 111.28

Market is selling dollars post payrolls but we don’t think the news is weak enough to warrant this decline. The drop in wages is disconcerting but the improvement in job growth and steady unemployment rate plus the rise in participation should be enough to keep the Fed hawkish after leaving rates steady next month. 113.20 has been support for USD/JPY for the past 3 days, so we want to be buyers slightly above those levels if it drops to that point

AUD/CAD Big Trade 02.17.2016 +63

Swing

BK AUD/CAD Big Trade -- Close at 0.9765

AUD/CAD Big Trade

SELL AUD/CAD at market ( now 0.9828)

Stop at 1.0028

The Australian dollar is in play tonight with labor data on the calendar. Thanks to the rise in commodity prices and improvement in risk appetite, AUD was the day’s second best performing currency behind the CAD. However tonight’s employment report could erase the gains in the currency. While the retail sector helped offset the losses in mining, Australian mining companies are now on the verge of bankruptcy and we could see thousands of layoffs over the next several months. According to the PMIs, weaker employment conditions were seen in the manufacturing and service sectors in the month of January. This signals that there was very little recovery in the labor market after net job losses in December. Given the importance of job growth, a soft report could trigger a significant reaction in AUD and highlight the contrasts between Australia and Canada’s economies.

Crude prices jumped 7% today after Iran said they would support OPEC’s production freeze. While there has been some confusion as to whether “support” equals action, oil traders are simply relieved that the world’s fourth largest holder of oil reserves is willing to cooperate. Yet after 3 years of Western sanctions, Iran is finally able to bring production up to competitive levels and they are on a campaign to increase output by at least a third this year. So it remains to seen how willing they really are to limiting output levels. With OPEC not scheduled to meet again until the summer, these positive headlines should fuel a stronger recovery in oil. The Canadian dollar has already responded well with other commodity currencies also participating in the rally. USD/CAD closed below 1.3800 and the next stop should be the 100-day SMA at 1.3600.(edited)

**If AUD/CAD is trading lower than 9820 then place limit order otherweise go market

USD/CAD Big Trade 02.15.2016 +67

Swing

2/15 BK USD/CAD Big Trade -- Close here at 1.3776 for +67

Big Trade -- USD/CAD

Sell USD/CAD at market (now 1.3842)

Stop 1.4042

Oil prices are rose 10% on Friday and another 1% this morning. USD/CAD should be trading much lower especially with risk on this morning. We haven’t heard anything yet from Saudi Arabia but there’s a lot of hope that OPEC may finally agree to a production cut. Also their lack of denial which usually comes quickly after a misquote leads investors to believe that oil which fell to 12 year lows this past week finally hit an uncle point. While all of the concerns relating to supply and demand are still there, USD/CAD is steady and the sharp rebound in oil should lead to stronger recovery that could take USD/CAD down to 1.38. Technically we believe that the pair is prime for a breakdown. There’s a very clear head and shoulders pattern with the shoulders capping gains right at the 50-day SMA near 1.40. As long as this level of resistance holds, USD/CAD will take aim at 1.38 and make a run for 1.36.