GBP/CHF – Will 1.5100 Fail Again ?

GBP/CHF – Will 1.5100 Fail Again ?

Chart Of The Day Uncategorized

Today the BOE rate decision put the bid back into cable as the MOC members suggested that the recent global slowdown will not have much of an impact on the bank’s decision to move off QE. The unit rallied more than 150 points off its lows as traders took the message to heart.

We think the optimism of cable bulls may be premature. Despite the BOE’s tough talk on monetary policy the fact on the ground show that UK economy has hit a brick wall as the global slowdown is clearly taking a toll on demand. Tonight the market will get a glimpse at Construction Output and Consumer Inflation Expectations and though the data is decidedly second tier – it nevertheless is likely to show further deterioration in UK growth.

All of this is fundamental data should begin to weigh on cable once again and GBP/CHF which has probed and failed the 1.5100 level several times over the past few days is likely to get pulled lower as bear try to test the 1.4700 support level. Only a strong break above the 1.5250 zone would negate the bearish thesis.

GBPCHF Big Trade 09.08.2015 -70

Swing

Closing GBP/CHF at 1.4988 here for a loss of -70

Order to Sell 1 Lot GBP/CHF at 1.4920 TRIGGERED

Place Order to Sell 1 More at 1.5140

Stop for ALL 1.5285

The Bank of England also meets this week and given the downside surprises in all 3 PMIs and international developments, UK policymakers should grow less hawkish. When we last heard from the central bank in August, the conviction for a Q1 rate hike was wavering. At the time, Investors were looking for a clear sign that the central bank is moving closer to raising interest rates but instead what they got were changes in their economic forecasts that suggests the central bank is still in no rush to tighten. The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged with only 1 member of the policy committee voting for a rate rise. More importantly, the BoE lowered its 2015 and 2016 inflation forecast citing lower commodity prices and a stronger currency. This view is likely to have hardened in the past month

TrendCatcher Signals 10.14.2014 – EUR/CAD, GBP/CHF

TrendCatcher

New BK Trend Catcher Signals for 10.14.2014

1. Sell GBP/CHF at market (1.5241)

Stop at 1.5306

First target (T1) at 1.5191, move stop to breakeven when T1 is hit

Second Target (T2) 1.5046

2. Buy EUR/CAD at market (1.4286)

Stop at 1.4221

First target (T1) at 1.4336, move stop to breakeven when T1 is hit

Second Target (T2) 1.4481

**If market price is higher (for short trades) or lower (for long trades) than our market price entry, trade can be taken with our same stops and targets.

**If your market price is WORSE than our market price entry and you still want to enter the trade than be sure to use our stops and targets.

Live Trades (Status)

None

Recently Closed Trades

10/13/2014 EUR/AUD +50

10/13/2014 USD/CHF -130

10/13/2014 EUR/USD -130

10/13/2014 AUD/CAD -130

10/08/2014 GBP/JPY +50

10/08/2014 CAD/JPY -130

10/08/2014 AUD/NZD -130

10/07/2014 EUR/NZD +50

10/06/14 USD/JPY -130

*These are actual results of trades we have placed in our funded test account for the past week based on the trading

GBP/CHF – Potential for Upside Break

GBP/CHF – Potential for Upside Break

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals

Despite the weakness in U.K. data, policymakers are rallying behind the idea of an earlier rate rise and even with the disappointments the U.K. has an economic lead against other major economies. Next week the PMI reports are scheduled for release and if the indicators stabilize or improve and they eventually will, it could be just what sterling traders need to see to reinitiate their long trades. At the same time, the Swiss Franc is getting dangerously close to intervention territory. The Swiss National Bank is committed to maintaining a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 in EUR/CHF and on Monday, the currency pair dropped to a 20 month low of 1.2072. We haven’t heard a peep from the SNB but if the Franc continues to rise in value, at minimum we expect verbal intervention. So with the upside in the Franc limited and sterling poised for a stronger recovery, we believe that GBP/CHF will break above 1.52 and head towards it monthly highs.

Technicals

Technically, there is a small ascending triangle forming in the currency pair that reinforces its upward bias and the importance of a 1.52 break. If this level clears, the next level of resistance is above 1.53. On the downside, the break below 1.51 would expose the currency pair for a move down to 1.50.

BKSWING We are stopped on short GBP/CHF at 1.5202 -120 on trade

Swing

BoE Gov Carney sent GBP/USD tumbling through the 1.7000 support levelafter his testimony in front of the UK Parliament suggested that the MPC is a long way off from hiking UK interest rates. Mr. Carney’s dovish statements in front of the Treasury committee were a stark contrast to a week ago when he suggested that rates in UK could rise as early as this year. Speaking in front of Parliament Mr. Carney stated that he was merely expressing his own opinion rather than the position of the full MPC. He noted that he did not consult MPC members prior to making the comments last week and as a result, sterling extended its losses against all of major currencies. This flip flopping nature could bring on further continuation selling in GBP, especially with long positions at such overstretched levels and we want to take advantage of this opportunity.

Place Order to Sell GBP/CHF at 1.5142

Stop at 1.5202

Close 1/2 at 1.5112

Close res at 1.4975

BKSWING We are TRIGGRED on Sell GBP/CHF at 1.5142 Stop at 1.5202 Close 1/2 at 1.5112 Close res at 1.4975

BKSWING We are stopped on short GBP/CHF at 1.5202 -120 on trade

GBP/CHF – Next Stop 1.55?

GBP/CHF – Next Stop 1.55?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals

Talk of an earlier rate hike by Bank of England Governor Carney drove GBP/CHF to its strongest level since November 2012. We believe that the renewed clarity in U.K. monetary policy will drive the currency pair even higher towards 1.55. Thursday afternoon Carney surprised the market by saying the central bank could raise rates sooner than the markets expect and the start of rate increases from the BoE is getting nearer. Previously the central bank refused to give into rate hike expectations, leading to a correction in the pound but now they feel that the strength of the housing market warrants vigilance because growth has been stronger and unemployment has fallen faster than they anticipated. The prospect of accelerated BoE easing should lead to further gains in GBP/CHF. There are no shortages of U.K. event risk next week and given Carney’s recent comments, traders will be looking for the BoE minutes to contain a more optimistic tone. The Swiss National Bank meets in the coming week and for the most part with EUR/CHF trading near the lower end of its recent range, the central bank will most likely remind investors that they are committed to avoiding excessive CHF strength.

Technicals

Taking a look at the weekly chart of GBP/CHF, now that 1.52 has been broken, there is no major resistance in the currency pair until the July high of 1.5485. Support on the other hand will be at 1.50, a break of which would put an end to the entire uptrend.

BKSWING GBP/JPY -200 on Trade

Swing

Our GBP/JPY long at 170.18 is TRIGGERED, Cancel GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD Orders:

1.BUY GBP/JPY at 170.18 TRIGGERED


Stop 169.18

Sell half at 170.68 move stop to b/e

Sell rest at 171.18

Update

We are stopped on long GBP/JPY at 169.18 -200 on trade

CANCEL GBP/CHF AND GBP/CAD Orders because they are correlated

We still have the following orders on:

2. Place Order to Sell EUR/AUD at 1.4943

Stop at 1.5043

Close half at 1.4893, move stop to break-even

Close rest 1.4843

3. Place order to Sell AUD/NZD at 1.0730


Stop at 1.0790

Close half at 1.0700, move stop to break-even

Close rest 1.0525

The market has responded positively to the BoE’s Inflation report and we think the rally in GBP has continuation. Tonight we have Australian employment numbers on tap and our EUR/AUD and AUD/NZD trades are in anticipation of that release.


New Policy: Keep all orders on until canceled. We will allow for 2 live trades at a time