Today’s Trades 11.17.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are not seeing much consistency in U.S. dollar’s performance this morning as the greenback is trading higher against the European currencies and lower versus the commodity currencies. Sterling is leading the slide as the DUP reiterates their resistance to Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. UK Cabinet Secretary Lidington said its wishful thinking that there could another EU deal so the decision that Parliament has to make is to accept the current deal or vote it down. Investors are worried that these won’t be very palatable options for the many members of the government who struggle with the decision. EUR/USD came close but failed to test 1.13 -- while the single currency remains under pressure and round numbers are often tested in EUR/USD, a very large option expiring today is preventing the pair from breaking through this level. AUD and NZD are surprisingly resilient in the face of mounting pressure from the US on China. Both currencies shrugged off President Trump’s threat of more tariffs and with a much weaker than expected NZ trade balance. The Canadian dollar is flat as oil prices try to stabilize and we see a small bias to the upside during the NY session. As for the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY it could hold onto its gains ahead of the consumer confidence report but the sentiment should lower given the sharp slide in stocks this month.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+CHF
+AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP
+CHF, +JPY, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 128.58, Stop at 128.86, Target 128.30
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5633, Stop at 1.5661, Target 1.5605
3. Sell USDCHF at .9993, Stop at 1.0021, Target .9965
4. Sell GBPCHF at 12731, Stop at 1.2759, Target 1.2703

Today’s Trades 07.24.2018 EURNZD, GBPCHF, USDCAD, NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

USD/JPY is selling off for the 5th consecutive trading session and this weakness is driving the greenback lower against all of the major currencies. Yesterday’s softer existing home sales report can be blamed but ultimately, it is the trend of softer U.S. data that is encouraging profit taking in the greenback this week. There are no major U.S. economic reports on the calendar until Friday and today’s Market PMI numbers will only have limited impact on the currency. Therefore investors should keep an eye on U.S. yields because its not clear whether the selling will continue. The most important economic report released this morning was Eurozone PMIs but the data failed to help the euro as weaker activity in the service sector was offset by stronger activity in manufacturing. The strongest performing currencies this morning are the Australian dollar and sterling. AUD and NZD benefitting from the rally in the Shanghai Composite index and China’s new policies to support growth while healthier UK CBI data is helping sterling. Looking ahead, we expect the Canadian dollar to trade higher on the back of morning’s rally in oil prices and the U.S. dollar to extend its losses during North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+CAD
+GBP
+NZD
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
Mildly +EUR, +CHF
Neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDUSD at .6798, Stop at.6771, Target .6827
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3152, stop at 1.3180, Target 1.3124
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.7211, Stop at 1.7239, Target 1.7183
4. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3039, Stop at 1.3011, Target 1.3067

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.18.2018 – EURJPY, GBPCHF, EURAUD, NZDJPY

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning as investors reward President Trump’s progress in talks with North Korea. He confirmed that CIA Chief Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea last week, paving the way for an official conversation between Trump and Kim. The dollar should be able to hold onto its gains with the Fed’s beige Book scheduled for release this afternoon, U.S. bond yields moving higher and Dow futures pointing to a positive open. The weakest currency is sterling which was hit by another round of softer data. UK CPI growth slowed to 0.1% in the month of March against expectations for 0.3% rise causing year over year growth to slow to 2.5% from 2.7%. Sterling is vulnerable to a deeper correction following softer wages yesterday. The strongest currency is the euro which refuses to fall in lockstep with its peers partly because of Iran’s decision to stop using dollars in its transactions -- a move that other nations could follow. The biggest event risk today is the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement -- no changes are expected but recent data improvements could encourage optimism.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD
-GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +CHF, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at .7841, Stop at .7868, Target .7812 (edited)
2. Buy EURAUD aat 1.5950, Stop at 1.5922, Target 1.5978
3. Sold GBPCHF at 1.3753, Stop at 1.3781, Target at 1.3725
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.71, Stop at 132.43, Target 132.99

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.09.2018 – GBPCHF, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURNZD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We’re starting the new trading week with stability. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a positive open after selling off sharply on Friday thanks in part to the recovery in Asian and European equities. Treasury yields are also pointing higher, supporting the rally in the greenback. The dollar is up against most of the major currencies with the exception of sterling and the New Zealand dollar. Investors still believe or at least hope that trade tensions between the U.S. and China amounts to nothing more than posturing as no sanctions have gone in effect and so far there hasn’t been further antagonism from China. The euro is under pressure from softer German trade data while the New Zealand dollar is benefitting from AUD/NZD, which has fallen to a 1 year low. Sterling on the other hand is up thanks to stronger house prices and a rise in Gilt yields. Keep an eye on the headlines as geopolitical risks remain the key focus -- we could get a NAFTA deal this week and increased tensions with China.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD,+GBP
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY
mildly -NZD
neutral CAD, AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9606, Stop at .9578, Target .9634
2. Buy USDJPY at 107.13, Stop at 106.85, target 107.41
3. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3545, Stop at 1.3517, Target 1.3573
4. Sell EURNZD at 1.6843, Stop at 1.6871, Target 1.6815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.04.2018 – EURCAD, AUDJPY, GBPCHF, USDCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

China rolled out $50B in tariffs overnight, sending USD/JPY and risk appetite plunging lower. While the greenback has not fallen across the board (it is up versus GBP, AUD and CAD), it is certainly vulnerable to additional weakness in the NY session as Dow futures, which are down 500 points signal a very ugly open. The U.S. is stirring up the trouble so the greenback will be punished but risk aversion makes it difficult for other currencies to extend their gains as well. This morning’s non-manufacturing ISM and ADP reports will still have an impact on the greenback but at this point, it may be a sideshow to trade tensions. Next to the yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performing currency, rising on the back of AUD/NZD flows. The Australian dollar is down slightly with weaker building approvals offset by stronger retail sales. Australia is also particularly vulnerable to China’s troubles. USD/CAD should rise further as oil prices continue to fall. Euro is up thanks in part to a higher CPI estimate.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CAD
-GBP
+NZD
+JPY
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CAD, -GBP, -AUD
+NZD, +JPY, +CHF
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.5750, Stop at 1.5722, target 1.5778
2. Sell AUDJPY at 81.45, Stop at 81.73, Target 81.17
3. Short GBPCHF at 1.3462, Stop at 1.3490, Target 1.3434
4, Sell USDCHF at .9582, Stop at .9610, Target .9554

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.28.2017 – EURUSD, USDCAD, EURAUD, GBPCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Today is a very important day in the FX market as we have the BoE, BoC and RBNZ Financial Stability reviews. The Bank’s England’s review saw all 7 banks pass the stress test which led to a brief rally in GBP/USD. The BoE said the tests show all banks can withstand a disorderly exit but acknowledged there would be costs if Brexit is not smooth. However Ireland’s troubles and the mess they create for Brexit continues to pressure sterling lower. A handful of US economic reports are due for release today (the most important is consumer confidence), Fed Chair nominee Powell’s confirmation hearing begins and the US Senate Finance Committee could announce a vote on the Senate version of the tax bill at any time, stealing Powell’s thunder. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against the Yen and European currencies but lower against the commodity currencies. The BoC’s Financial review isn’t expected to reveal anything positive for Canada given recent data deterioration. Euro is on the back foot and likely to remain so for most of the day.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF, -CAD
+AUD, +NZD,
mildly +USD
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2792, Stop at 1.2762, Target 1.2820
2. Sell GBPCHF at 1.3064, Stop at 1.3092, Target 1.3036
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5620, Stop at 1.5648, Target 1.5592
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1889, Stop at 1.1917, Target 1.1871

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.14.2017 – USDJPY, GBPCHF, CADCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The euro is trading sharply higher this morning against all of the major currencies on the back of a stronger than expected German GDP growth. ECB President Draghi didnt say anything damaging to the currency, allowing EUR/USD to take out 1.17 easily. While we are super bullish euros the move has taken EUR/USD to the 100-day SMA and the pair is struggling to extend its gains beyond that level. By the same token, sterling is underperforming because of soft CPI numbers but EUR/GBP is also at the 100-day SMA, which is a natural place of resistance. The U.S. dollar is taking a backseat today but 10 year yields are back below 2.4% and that is weighing on the currency. This morning’s US PPI report isn’t expected to have a significant impact on the currency. The Canadian and Australian dollars appear poised for a recovery while the New Zealand dollar extended its losses for a 4th consecutive trading day.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-USD
-GBP
+CHF
+AUD
+CAD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +AUD, +CAD
-USD, -GBP, -JPY, -NZD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell USDJPY at market now 113.67, Stop 113.95, Target 113.39
2. Sell GBPCHF at market now 1.3046, Stop at 1.3074, Target 1.3018
3. Sell CADCHF at market now .7814, Stop at .7842, Target .7786

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

GBPCHF to 1.27?

by Kathy Lien Chart Of The Day

Sterling is trading strongly ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting which suggests investors are positioning for optimism but before the BoE meets, we’ll have to get past a few key economic reports that will shape policy expectations. Although the central bank recently downgraded their inflation outlook a smaller decline in shop prices and faster price growth in the manufacturing and service sectors in August point to a recovery. We also expect employment report to be strong as the service sector reports the strongest job creation in 19 months. Manufacturing reported the strongest since June 2014. We like buying GBP versus the Swiss Franc because the Swiss National Bank who meets this week will continue to call for Franc weakness.

Technically, GBP/CHF has broken above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. This signals the potential for a much stronger rally that tests the August 15th and July 17th high near 1.2640. If that resistance level is broken, the next stop should be 1.2700
gbpchf1

Today’s Trading Plan 07.08.17 – USDJPY, GBPCHF and USDJPY

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It is another quiet morning in the foreign exchange market with the U.S dollar trading lower against all of the major currencies except for GBP. There’s nothing to explain the move outside of consolidation as U.S. yields are slightly higher. We have absolutely nothing on the U.S. calendar today and overnight data did not have an impact on regional currencies. Euro for example is back above 1.18 despite softer German trade data while weaker imports/exports failed to pressure AUD and NZD lower. USD/JPY could trade heavy during the NY session as it has broken below ll major moving averages on the 4 hour chart.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-USD
+EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -JPY,
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF, +AUD
mildly -NZD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell GBPCHF at market now 1.2672, Stop 1.2712, Target 1.2642
2. Sell USDJPY at market now 110.42, Stop 110.82, Target 110.22
3. Place Order to Sell USDCAD at 1.2660, Stop at 1.2690, Target 1.2634

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

**NOTE GBP/CHF target is lowered to 1.2642

GBP/CHF Targets

by Kathy Lien Chart Of The Day

gbpchf061217

Investors continued to sell sterling, taking the currency within pips of its pre-election low. Theresa May spent most of her time after the election apologizing to her party members, especially those who have lost their seats. She said “I got us into this mess and I’m going to get us out,” but no amount of damage control at this point could change the current situation. She’s still at risk of losing her job and as she said today, “I’ll serve you as long as you want me,” which may not be very long. The Queen’s decision to delay her speech to Parliament suggests that she believes there could be more leadership changes. All of this ongoing uncertainty is weighing heavily on the currency and will most likely overshadow this week’s economic reports and Bank of England rate decision. If the Prime Minister steps down we could see another leg lower in the pound. Inflation data is scheduled for release tomorrow and with commodity prices falling, slower price growth is expected all around. If political troubles are combined with softer data, GBP will sink further taking GBP/CHF down with it.

Technically, the 20-day SMA has just moved below the 100 and 200-day SMA, which is negative for the currency. The break of 1.23 exposes the currency pair to the March low of 1.2215 and possibly even a drop down to the 61.8% Fib retracement of the Oct 2016 to May 2017 rally at 1.22.

GBP/CHF Headed for 1.28

GBP/CHF Headed for 1.28

by Kathy Lien Chart Of The Day

GBP/CHF Headed for 1.28

Now that we know U.K. policymakers are skeptical about the rise in inflation, all signs point to a top for the British pound. Going into this week’s rate decision, many investors believed that the central bank would upgrade its growth and inflation forecasts with Carney recognizing the improvements in the economy. Some even hoped there would be 2 dissents in favor of higher rates but instead, the Bank of England lowered its 2017 GDP forecast and attributed the entire recent pickup in inflation to the weak currency. In his speech, Carney focused on the weakness of household spending and GDP and emphasized that domestic costs and wages remain subdued. The central bank did recognize some of the improvements in the economy but they didn’t want to sound overly optimistic because everything hinges on a smooth Brexit – something very few have confidence in. Sterling remains in focus in the coming week with inflation, employment and retail sales scheduled for release. While we expect most of these reports to surprise to the upside, GBP could still trickle lower as these reports won’t change the central bank’s dovish bias. We like selling GBP vs. the Swiss Franc because USD/CHF is struggling to extend its gains after this past week strong rally. USD/CHF soared after the French election as investors unwound their Le Pen hedge.

Technically, GBP/CHF has fallen below 1.3000 and now appears poised to test the 20-day SMA at 1.2830. Of course we need to see 1.29, the December high broken before that happens but if this level is breached, GBP/CHF should slip as low as 1.2830. If it rallies back above 1.3025, then new 8 month highs are likely.

GBP/CHF in Play

GBP/CHF in Play

by Kathy Lien Chart Of The Day

GBP/CHF in Play

We have 2 monetary policy announcements on Thursday -- one from the Swiss National Bank and another from the Bank of England. Of the two, the BoE rate decision will be more market moving and likely to determine the general path of GBP/CHF but both event risks are worth watching. Starting with the BoE, there’s been broad based improvement in the U.K. economy since their last meeting so chances are they will note the momentum in the economy. The door to additional will remain open of course as the central bank waits to see how the economy/markets respond to Article 50. No changes are expected from the Swiss National Bank but mixed data means they are likely to maintain an accommodative bias.

Technically, the recent decline in GBP/CHF found support at the 20-day / 50-day SMA cross. The fundamentals tell us this should hold and GBPCHF should make its way back towards 1.30. However if Wednesday’s low of 1.28 is taken out, we could see a steeper slide down to 1.27 and possibly even 1.26.