AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

Chart Of The Day

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

AUD/USD traded higher today, extending its gains on the back of U.S. dollar weakness. While there were no Australian economic reports released overnight, AUD/USD traders were relieved that Australia has also been granted an exemption from Trump’s trade tariffs. Although Australia’s steel and aluminum exports are nominal (only about US$213 million each), psychologically this decision highlight the strong relationship between the U.S. and Australia although both parties denied that this had anything to do with military support. Regardless, the Australian economic calendar is light with the exception of some speeches from RBA officials this week – the last we heard from RBA Governor Lowe, although they maintain a firmly neutral policy the next RBA rate move will be up not down because the economy is moving in the right direction as non-mining spend rises by the largest amount since the financial crisis.

Technically, AUD/USD broke out of a 4 day consolidation and appears poised for a move to at least 79 cents. The 50-day SMA sits at .7893 and if that is broken, the next stop for AUD/USD should be the Feb 16th high of .7988. If AUD/USD fails at .79 cents and moves back below .7835, the losses could take the pair to the bottom of its recent range near .7780.

USD/JPY Above 120 – More Gains Ahead?

USD/JPY Above 120 – More Gains Ahead?

Chart Of The Day

USD/JPY Above 120 – More Gains Ahead?

With most of continental Europe closed for trading, USD/JPY broke through 120 to hit its strongest level in more than 2 weeks. What’s interesting about the move is that it occurred on a day with softer U.S. data. We had an unexpected decline in construction spending, softer than anticipated manufacturing ISM and University of Michigan consumer sentiment reports. However on Thursday jobless claims dropped to its lowest level in 15 years which bodes very well for next week’s labor market report. We will be focused on non-dollar drivers in the front of the week with the RBA rate decision, U.K. election, New Zealand and Australian employment reports scheduled for release. The uncertainty and risk posed by these reports could make the U.S. dollar more attractive. Towards the end of the week, the focus will turn to non-farm payrolls. Given last month’s surprisingly anemic job growth and the big improvement in jobless claims, everyone expects a significant rebound in payroll growth. The unemployment rate is also expected to drop to 5.4%, which would represent a big improvement that should breathe new life into the U.S. dollar. At the same time, Japan’s Global Pension Investment Fund, who widened their investment mandate will lend support to USD/JPY as they expand their purchases of foreign assets.

Technically, although 120 is an important psychological level for USD/JPY, there are many layers of resistance in the currency pair above current levels. First we have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1998 to 2011 decline at 120.16, followed by the Feb high of 120.50 and the April high of 120.85. If the currency pair breaks above all of these levels, it would then face stiff resistance at the March high of 122. On the downside losses should be limited to the March low at 118.33.

Day Trading Signals March 19 -Today Gains in Chat +70 pips

News

BK NEWS TRADES with our Economic Data Projections   

Videos on How to Trade our 3 BK News Strategies 

How To Trade AJAX

How To Trade Crowd Fighter

How To Trade C – Trade 

BK Day Trading Chat Room Results 3/18/2015 +35

NZDJPY+10

EURUSD+25
GBPUSD+30
NZDUSD+5

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All BK NEWS Signals are sent out instantly via our smartphone App by SNAPP Trader
 

  

  

  ****NOTE we are going to trade C-Trade and Crowdfighter on 15 Minute rather than 5 minute delay on all pairs today***

  

No Trades 3/19

  

  

Date Currency
Event
GMT Strategy

 

  

Last 24 hours Results
Crowd Fighter 
No trade 

 
C-Trade
USD/JPY +10

 

  

CALENDAR CALLS

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (March 19, 2015) – Good Luck Trading!

1. NZD Q4 GDP (5:45pm NY Time) Bullish NZD — Potential upside surprise given stronger trade and retail sales activity

2. SNB Rate Decision (4:30am NY Time) No Trade – Could be very market moving but rate decisions are hard to predict

3. US Current Account Balance (8:30am NY Time) Bearish USD – Potential downside surprise given weaker trade activity

4. US Philadelphia Fed Index (10am NY Time) Bearish USD – Potential downside surprise given weaker Empire State manufacturing index 

Day Trading Signals March 17 -Monday’s Gains in Chat +32 pips

News

BK NEWS TRADES with our Economic Data Projections   

Videos on How to Trade our 3 BK News Strategies 

How To Trade AJAX

How To Trade Crowd Fighter

How To Trade C – Trade 

BK Day Trading Chat Room Results 3/16/2015 +32

NZDUSD+10

EURUSD +10
NZDCAD+10
NZD/JPY +2


Want to join us? email [email protected] with subject line “Slack”

  

All BK NEWS Signals are sent out instantly via our smartphone App by SNAPP Trader
 

  

  

  ****NOTE we are going to trade C-Trade and Crowdfighter on 15 Minute rather than 5 minute delay on all pairs today***

    

  

Date Currency
Event
GMT Strategy
Mar 17 -Tu AUD/USD RBA Minutes 00:30 C-Trade
Mar 17 -Tu
AUD/USD
RBA Minutes 00:30 C-Fighter

 

  

Last 24 hours Results
Crowd Fighter 
No trade 

 
C-Trade
No Trade

 

  

CALENDAR CALLS

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (March 17, 2015) – Good Luck Trading!

1. RBA Minutes (8:30pm NY Time) Bearish AUD — Likely to be bearish given the RBA’s dovish post monetary policy meeting comments

2. German ZEW Survey (6am NY Time) Bullish EUR — Potential upside surprise given stronger German data and optimism about effect on ECB QE on EZ economy

3. US Housing Starts & Building Permits (8:30am NY Time) No Trade — First set of housing data is difficult to predict

Day Trading Signals March 16 -Friday’s Gains in Chat +35 pips

News

BK NEWS TRADES with our Economic Data Projections   

 

Videos on How to Trade our 3 BK News Strategies 

How To Trade AJAX

How To Trade Crowd Fighter

How To Trade C – Trade 

BK Day Trading Chat Room Results 3/13/2015 +35

 NZDUSD+25

USDCAD+10

Want to join us? email [email protected] with subject line “Slack”

  

All BK NEWS Signals are sent out instantly via our smartphone App by SNAPP Trader
 

  

  

  ****NOTE we are going to trade C-Trade and Crowdfighter on 15 Minute rather than 5 minute delay on all pairs today***

  

No Trades 3/16 

  

  

Date Currency
Event
GMT Strategy

 

  

Last 24 hours Results
Crowd Fighter 
No trade 

 
C-Trade
USD/CAD +10

 

  

CALENDAR CALLS

Here’s what we are looking for in Monday’s economic reports (March 15, 2015) – Good Luck Trading!

1. US Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Industrial Production (8:30am and 9:15am ET) No Trade — First set of manufacturing data is difficult to predict and not expected to be very market moving 

Will GBP/JPY Sustain its Gains Above 170?

Will GBP/JPY Sustain its Gains Above 170?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals

What a day it has been for GBP/JPY! The currency pair dropped to a low of 169.25 on the back of weaker U.S. retail sales but managed to recover and recapture 170 by the end of the North American trading session. This intraday rally was driven by a turnaround in U.S. stocks and the market’s realization that soft spending will keep the Fed tapering at a very measured pace. Sterling remains strong, adding to the gains it first enjoyed after yesterday’s BoE Inflation Report. With no U.K. data on the calendar tomorrow, we expect a sustained rally in sterling because the BoE’s shift in strategy and upgrade to their GDP forecast represents a significant shift in their monetary policy outlook. The central bank now sees the economy growing 0.5% faster than they initially anticipated this year, which means they could also accelerate their plans for tightening. Their rosier outlook for the economy has driven U.K. yields sharply higher and we believe they will continue to rise, providing support to the GBP. As for USD/JPY, the currency pair’s resilience in the face of weaker retail sales is nothing short of impressive. Its move back above 102 puts 103 in sight.

Technicals

170 is a very significant resistance level in GBP/JPY. It capped gains back in December and was a breakdown point in January. The currency pair first attempted to break 170 on Wednesday but overnight it gave up its gains to trade back down to 169.25. As of the North American close, it is trying once again to muster a meaningful move above 170 and we hope the second time is the charm. There is no major resistance above 170 until the 171.20-40 range and above 172, the currency pair could hit fresh multiyear highs. If GBP/JPY drops below 169, we could see a stronger reversal down to 168.