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After days of consolidation we may finally be seeing a top in USD/CAD below the 200-day SMA. Today’s decline in largest in 10 trading days and the move has taken USD/CAD below the first standard deviation Bollinger Band. When that happens it usually turns into a multi-day move and in this case we are looking for USD/CAD to drop to at least 1.30, the 100-day SMA . On a fundamental basis, the more than 3% rise in oil prices and sell-off in the U.S. dollar is behind the move. While the greenback could find support soon, it may not be until USD/CAD drops to this key level. Oil prices have fallen for sometime and bounce is warranted whereas the market’s disappointment in the Fed could last for a few more days.