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While most of the market is consumed with euro as the tides of the Greek drama change by the hour – the real victim on an unravelled deal could be EUR/JPY. The pair looks increasingly vulnerable as the prospect of Greek default could send shock waves through the capital markets increase risk aversion and precipitate a nasty little sell off in stocks which already look toppy on valuation basis.
The drop in global equities would not doubt cause a fall in yen crosses and that could quickly plunge the EUR/JPY pair for a couple of hundred points as it trades in tandem with equities. Technically the pair already looks suspect having formed a very chunky double top at the 140.00 level and break of the the 138.00 figure could take it all the way to 135.00 over the next several weeks.
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