Today’s Trades 08.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURGBP

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Although the greenback was hit hard in the past 24 hours by President Trump’s criticism of the Fed, they will not affect monetary policy. But it was the perfect excuse for USD bulls to abandon their positions. In the Asia session overnight, the selling gained momentum after EUR/USD broke through 1.15 -- stops were triggered and EUR/USD rallied quickly, taking all of the major currencies higher along with it. However the rally stopped right at the 20-day SMA for EUR/USD and its not clear if the pair will have the momentum to extend beyond that level. The best performing currency this morning is the New Zealand dollar but NZD is vulnerable to losses if dairy prices fail to rise at today’s auction. AUD and CAD are also higher with the loonie likely to gain traction in the North American session for a potential test of 1.30. Last night’s RBA minutes had very little impact on AUD. Brexit talks are underway this morning so GBP could be vulnerable to headline risk but right now it looks like it wants to make a run to 1.2875. Stocks are up, yields are up and oil prices are moving higher -- all signs of a risk on rally.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+AUD
+CAD
+GBP
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-JPY
+AUD, +CAD +GBP, +EUR
mildly +NZD, +CHF
neutral USD but (+USDJPY)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 81.18, stop at 80.90, Target 81.46
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1524, Stop at 1.1496, Target 1.1552
3. Buy CADJPY at 84.68, Stop at 84.40, Target 84.96
4. Sell EURGBP at .8978, stop at .9006, Target .8950

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.08.2018 USDCHF, AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly positive open but currencies are still reeling from last night’s sell-off in Asian equities. Chinese stocks dropped more than 1% as ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tension continues to pressure the markets. The Yuan resumed its slide despite mixed Chinese trade data -- the trade surplus declined but exports and imports increased. All of the Japanese Yen crosses are trading lower, led by the decline in USD/JPY. Now that 111 has been broken, the main levels to watch are 110.80 (50-day SMA) and 110.60 (July 26 low). The weakest currency is sterling which fell to a fresh 11 month low today. GBP/USD has not seen a rally in 7 trading days and with no data to support the currency, investors are focused on the growing risk on a no-deal Brexit. The greenback is mixed and a quiet data day means risk on/risk off will drive dollar flows. EUR and AUD are flat but there’s a good chance that we could see some weakness in the NY session. NZD on the other hand should be quiet with the RBNZ rate decision tonight whereas USD/CAD could struggle underneath 1.31.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
Neutral NZD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9955, Stop at .9927, Target .9983
2. Buy EURCAD at 1.5173, Stop at 1.5145, Target 1.5201
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7412, Stop at. 7440, Target .7384
4. Buy CADJPY at 84.85, Stop at 84.57, Target 85.13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.27.2018 CADJPY and NZDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its the end of the week and the U.S. dollar is trading firmly ahead of this morning’s second quarter US GDP report. GDP growth is expected to have accelerated significantly thanks to strong retail sales and trade activity. But investors are worried that the lofty 4.2% forecast will be hard to meet, hence the hesitant rally in the greenback. The weakest currency is the Swiss Franc followed by the Australian dollar. There was no news from Switzerland but Australia reported softer PPI. Global yields are flat and stocks are experiencing minor gains. The New Zealand dollar is under pressure following softer consumer confidence numbers and we believe NZD will underperform during the North American session. The Canadian dollar on the other hand could outperform as investors hope for a NAFTA deal. We hope to close most of trades before the 8:30AM GDP report as the outcome could have a material impact on currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD
-NZD
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -JPY, -CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought CADJPY at 85.08, Stop at 84.80, Target 85.36
2. Sell NZDUSD at .6767, Stop at 6795, Target .6739

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.05.2018 AUDCHF, EURUSD, CADJPY, USDCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning on reports that the US and EU could drop their respective auto tariffs. No formal deal has been announced and there’s no mention by President Trump on twitter so it is too early to tell whether this story has real merit but it is driving risk on flows. However with the U.S. holiday bringing lower liquidity (many traders are off through the weekend) and trade war still a major issue the day before tariffs on China begin, investors remain nervous about retaliatory measures from China. Today’s ADP, Challenger and non-manufacturing ISM reports could also have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The best performing currency this morning is the euro followed by the deeply sold New Zealand dollar. All of the commodity currencies are trying to claw higher this morning. I like CAD in particular because of the continued uptick in oil along with the rise in Canadian bond yields. Sterling on the other hand saw very little benefit from BoE Governor Carney’s positive comments but that should be temporary following yesterday’s strong PMI services data. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates again this year, investors are hopeful that today’s U.S. economic reports will reaffirm the strength of the labor market.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+AUD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD
-JPY, -CHF
+USDJPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCHF at .7331, Stop at .7304, .7360
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1685, stop at 1.1657, Target 1.1713
3. Buy CADJPY at 81.16, Stop at 83.88, Target 84.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.23.2018 – USDCHF, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the new week with a fresh round of gains as the greenback is trading against all of the major currencies. The main catalyst is the 10 year Treasury yield which is hovering just under 3%. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today but last week’s momentum is carrying over to this morning’s trade. The Japanese Yen is the weakest currency followed by the euro which shrugged off upward revisions to EZ PMIs. The commodity currencies are also up across the board although the loonie is the most resilient as oil prices stabilize. Its Monday, so its difficult to say whether there will be continuation after these strong moves but minimally USD/JPY looks like its headed towards 108.50. GBP/USD could test 1.39 but UK yields are up quite a bit this morning as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CHF
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-GBP, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
mildly -EUR, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 82.70, Stop at 82.42, Target 82.98
2. Buy CADJPY at 84.60, Stop at 84.32, Target 84.88
3. Sell USDCHF at .9755, Stop at .9783, Target .9727
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2780, Stop at 1.2808, target 1.2752

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.17.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, CADJPY, NZDCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading lower against the U.S. dollar this morning on the back of softer data. The EUR was hit by a lower ZEW survey, GBP fell on the back of weaker earnings, AUD and NZD are pressured by lower industrial production and quarterly GDP growth in China. The U.S. and Canadian dollars are the only ones unaffected so far and the greenback shouldn’t be significantly impacted by this morning’s housing and industrial production reports. Canada has manufacturing sales and the loonie is holding onto its gains ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement. The weakest currency today is NZD followed by the Swiss Franc. With Dow futures pointing to a positive open and U.S. Treasury yields ticking slightly higher, today may be a day of pro rather than anti-risk that could see gains for USD/JPY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-JPY
-GBP
+USD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-EUR, -JPY, -GBP, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy CADJPY at 85.24, stop at 84.96, Target 85.52
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2368, Stop at 1.2396, Target 1.2340
3. Buy EURGBP at .8638, stop at .8610, Target .8662
4. Sell NZDCAD at .9220, Stop at .9248, Target .9192

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.20.2018 – USDCAD, USDCHF, CADJPY, GBPUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After yesterday’s sharp sell-off in stocks, we are seeing risk appetite return this morning with the U.S. dollar trading higher against most of the major currencies. USD/JPY is at 106.50 and EUR/USD is holding above 1.2300 but support looks tenuous as the dollar could add to its gains ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. Sterling took a hit from weaker CPI and could succumb to stronger selling than the euro. The commodity currencies are holding on strong with USD/CAD eyeing a move to 1.3050 and beyond. The Australian dollar is one of the strongest performers for no reason other than the fact that it experienced heavy selling over the past few days, so a healthier reversal is likely. The New Zealand dollar is lagging behind as investors worry about this morning’s dairy auction and tomorrow afternoon’s RBNZ rate decision.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD
+AUD
-GBP
-EUR
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD, +AUD
-GBP, -EUR, -CHF, -JPY
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy CADJPY at 81.40, Stop at 81.12, Target 81.68
2. Buy USDCHF at .9528, Stop at .9500, Target .9556
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4030, Stop at 1.4058, Target 1.4002
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3068, Stop at 1.3096, Target 1.3040

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

CADJPY – A Turn for the Making?

CADJPY – A Turn for the Making?

by Boris Schlossberg Chart Of The Day

No pair has been more beaten up by tariff talk than CADJPY. The cross got it from both sides as it suffered declines from risk aversion flows and from the idiosyncratic risk facing Canada which on the sharp end of the stick in both Nafta negotiations and general global tariff threats.

Today, however, was the first bright day for the pair in days as Trump’s tariff threats are universally opposed by those within his own party as well trading partners from abroad. Although its too early to tell, Trump may indeed back off or water down his initial proposals which will provide further relief to the market and to the cross.

Tomorrow the market will also hear from BOC, and while no one expects the central bank to raise rates, there is little evidence for BOC to be overtly dovish as growth up North remains positive and further policy tightening will have to come. So if BOC simply stays neutral and tariff threat begins to fade, CADJPY has a chance to recover further.

Today’s Trades 12.20.2017 – CADJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is a very good chance that we’ll final Congressional approval of the tax reform bill today. The House passed their version yesterday, the Senate passed their version hours later and now the House will take a final vote after the Senate ruled that 2 provisions in the bill did not comply with budget reconciliation rules and were removed from the Senate bill. Either way, the bill is done and poised to land on President Trump’s desk before Christmas. As a result, the dollar is trading higher against the Yen, euro and Swiss Franc. It is struggling versus GBP and the commodity currencies but sterling could be vulnerable to losses after EU Brexit Chief negotiator said UK won’t be covered by international agreements after they leave the European Union. The resilience of the commodity currencies are astounding, particularly after the weak New Zealand trade balance and decline in dairy prices but that could be a testament to tax reform’s positive impact on risk appetite. Looking ahead, only the U.S. new homes sales report is scheduled for release, so taxes and risk appetite will continue to drive FX flows. With the Dow eye 25K, we could see USD/JPY push to 113.50

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-GBP
-JPY
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +AUD, +CAD, +NZD
-GBP, -JPY,
mildly -EUR, -CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy CADJPY at 87.95, Stop at 87.67, Target 88.23
2. Sell GBPAUD at 1.7452, Stop at 1.7480, Target 1.7424
3. Sell EURAUD at market now 1.5433, Stop at 1.5461, Target 1.5405

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.11.2017 – USDCHF, CADJPY, EURGBP

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies this morning and the losses could accelerate if U.S. yields fall further from current levels. There are no major economic reports on the calendar but this is an exceptionally busy week with 4 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving releases, so we would not be surprised to see pre-positioning. The best performing currency is the New Zealand dollar which jumped over 1% on the selection of a new central bank governor. However the move is overdone and NZD fundamentals remain weak so we have chosen not to join this trade. 10 year UK yields are down more than 5bp this morning and GBP is flat. This misalignment leads us to believe that GBP will fall, catching up to the move in yields as the FX market realizes what the bond market already knows which is that the second round of Brexit negotiations could be tougher than the first.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-USD
-CAD
+CHF
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -CAD,
+EUR, +CHF, +NZD, +JPY, +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at market now .9905, Stop at .9933, Target .9877
2. Sell CADJPY at market now 88.20, Stop at 88.48, Target 87.92
3. Buy EURGBP at .8813, Stop at .8785, Target .8841

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.05.2017 – USDCHF, AUDCAD, CADJPY, GBPUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the U.S. dollar’s performance this morning -- the greenback is flat vs. the JPY, up vs. GBP and down vs. EUR and the commodity currencies. The initial uptick in U.S. yields suggests that we may not see additional weakness in the greenback until the ISM report but it remains under pressure for the time being. Although this may be a big week for the buck and today’s non-manufacturing ISM could be meaningful, last night’s Australian data and Reserve Bank rate decision along with Brexit talks had a greater impact on currency trade. While the EU says they are ready to restart talks, Britain is still dealing with their Irish border issue. The Australian dollar on the other hand experienced its strongest 1 day rise in more than a week thanks to stronger data and a less dovish RBA. NZD is in play this morning with a dairy auction on the calendar. The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow and with widespread improvements in Canadian data, we believe the loonie will trade higher ahead of the rate decision. Our strongest view is CAD strength and GBP weakness today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+CAD
-GBP
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+CAD, +CHF, +EUR
-GBP, -JPY
mildly +AUD (may be overextended today)
mildly -USD
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. sell AUDCAD at .9659, Stop at .9687, Target .9631
2. Buy CADJPY at 89.01, Stop at 88.73, Target 89.29
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.3419, Stop at 1.3447, Target 1.3391
4. Sell USDCHF at .9843, Stop at .9871, Target .9815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.29.2017 – EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, CADJPY

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Right out of the gate, the best performing currency this morning is sterling, which traded higher against all of the major currencies. It is struggling to extend higher at the start of the NY session but with UK yields up 7bp this morning, a further rally is likely. The greenback is holding bid as well, but the move is being overshadowed by the strength of GBP and stability of EUR. As this morning’s UK and Eurozone economic reports were slightly weaker, the strength of both currencies is purely a function of the market’s renewed interest in European assets. The commodity currencies are mostly lower with the exception of NZD which continues to be driven higher by short covering. German CPI is due for release at 13 GMT followed by US GDP revisions and later the Beige Book report. While all of these numbers could have a meaningful impact on EUR and USD, the thunder could be stolen at any moment by headlines in Washington. We believe that the prospect of tax reform will keep the USD bid and we are also looking for a positive outlook in the Beige Book. Dudley, Yellen and Williams speak today and they are likely to remind us that another rate hike may be necessary.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+GBP
-AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP
-AUD, -JPY
mildly +CAD
neutral CHF, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Bought GBPJPY at market now 149.58, Stop at 149.30, Target 149.86
2. Sell AUDUSD at market now .7578, Stop at .7606, Target .7550
3. Buy CADJPY at 86.98, Stop at 86.70, Target 87.26
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1844, Stop at 1.1816, Target 1.1872

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT