Today’s Trades 06.04.2018 – USDJPY, CADCHF, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Recoveries at the end of last week carried over to this new trading week with the Australian dollar leading the gains. AUD is up more than 1% on the back of stronger retail sales data, lifting the New Zealand dollar with it. Profit taking on long US dollar positions also helped euro shrug off softer PPI. Today’s U.S. factory orders and durable goods report are not expected to have a significant impact on the greenback. With stocks pointing higher and yields edging upwards, there’s an appetite for risk that should benefit the yen crosses. We also see a further near term pullback in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+GBP
+AUD
+NZD
+CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+EUR, +GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CAD, +JPY, +CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Sell CADCHF at .7618, Stop at .7646, Target .7590
2. Sell USDJPY at 109.54, Stop ta 109.82, Target 109.26
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6646, Stop at 1.6674, Target 1.6618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

GBPCHF -11
EURJPY -5

CADCHF – Failure at 77 Cents

CADCHF – Failure at 77 Cents

Chart Of The Day

CADCHF – Failure at 77 Cents

The Canadian dollar is under pressure today despite the turnaround in oil prices. The U.s. dollar is strong and investors are still worried about President Trump’s tweet about oil prices being too high last week. The unexpected drop in wholesale sales this morning put pressure on the loonie. This number isn’t closely followed but is a reflection of the overall demand. USD/CAD has broken above 1.2800 and is testing 1.2850. The next stop should be 1.29. At the end of last week, softer retail sales and consumer price growth reinforced the Bank of Canada’s caution. Although CAD policymakers sounded slightly less pessimistic this afternoon, they remain worried about NAFTA and feel that underlying issues are evolving well enough to send an unambiguously positive signal to the market.

Technically CAD/CHF is looking very ugly with the pair closing last week and opening today below the 200-day SMA and first standard deviation Bollinger Band. CAD/CHF should drop to 76 cents and if it falls below that, the next stop should be .7560, which is just above the 20 and 100-day SMA

Today’s Trades 03.13.2018 – EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDJPY, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The biggest story this morning is that USD/JPY is trading above 107.00. The currency pair jumped 100 pips in the past 14 hours on the back of overnight gains in the Nikkei. Asian and European equities shrugged off yesterday’s slide in U.S. stocks and now Dow futures are pointing to a stronger open. The rally in USD/JPY has taken all of the yen crosses higher and 107.50 is now in sight. EUR/USD remains under pressure but received brief support form ECB Lane’s comment that the current euro level is no concern. Although this view is not new, the fact that it managed to drive EUR/USD up 20 pips in seconds suggest that the currency pair does not want to fall. GBP/USD is hovering just under 1.3900 ahead of the UK’s Spring Statement – we think the pair will breach this level and finally break to the upside but the statement remains an unclear risk and there are still conflicting Brexit headlines. Next to the Japanese Yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performer while the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar trail behind. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will be speaking at 10:15AM NY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+NZD
+GBP
-CAD
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +NZD, +AUD, +CHF
-JPY, -CAD
mildly +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary –

1. Sell CADCHF at .7374, Stop at .7402, Target .7346
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2334, Stop at 1.2306, Target 1.2362
3. Buy AUDJPY at 84.38, Stop at 84.10, Target 84.66
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.30, Stop at 132, 02, Target 132.58

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

oday’s Trades 02.08.2018 – EURJPY, AUDNZD, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We’re late with this note (all trades were posted on slack) because we were preparing to live trade the Bank of England rate decision but now that the first leg of movement has occurred – we have a few minutes to share our thoughts.

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning (with the exception of GBP which popped on the BoE’s upgraded growth forecast and their comment that rates could rise faster and earlier than they anticipated in November – which is an overwhelmingly positive comment. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open but the decline so far appears modest so USD/JPY is attempting to bottom and we think other yen crosses will as well (which is why we are long EURJPY). USD/CAD is also meeting resistance and we have chosen to buy the Canadian dollar vs. the Swiss Franc although USDCAD itself looks like an attractive sell. AUD and NZD are weak and likely to fall further but AUD is deep in its decline whereas NZD is just beginning to catch up, making AUD/NZD an attractive long trade. EUR is neither here nor there. Its benefitting from GBP strength but also held back by USD gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP (post BoE)
+CAD
-NZD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD
-NZD, -JPY, -CHF, -AUD
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy CADCHF at .7509, Stop at .7481, Target .7537
2. Buy EURJPY at 134.24, Stop at 133.96, Target 134.52
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0826, Stop at 1.0798, Target 1.0854

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.15.2017 – EURUSD, EURAUD, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With no major economic reports on the calendar today, it should be a calmer, more subdued trading session compared to the past few days which have been marked by rate decisions and key releases. The EU Summit is the only big focus and while they are widely expected to vote to move to the second phase of Brexit negotiations, GBP traders are not impressed. The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies but the moves have been limited. The New Zealand dollar is the best performer, charging to a 1 month high on the back of stronger manufacturing activity. The euro is doing its best to hold above 1.18 while AUD and NZD are struggling to maintain their latest gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
-GBP
+NZD
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -AUD, -CHF
+EUR, +NZD, +JPY
mildly -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURUSD at market now 1.1803, Stop at 1.1775, Target 1.1832
2. Buy EURAUD at 1.5377, Stop at 1.5349, Target 1.5405
3. Sell CADCHF at .7743, stop at .7771, Target .7715

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Day Trades 11.22.2017 – USDJPY, CADCHF, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting are due for release today and the U.S. dollar is trading lower across the board despite the prospect of hawkish rhetoric. U.S. yields are also up which should be supportive of the greenback but the mighty buck decoupled from rates after Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned against tightening too quickly in her speech last night. Jobless claims, durable goods orders and revisions to the latest University of Michigan Sentiment index are also due for release but the main event will be the FOMC minutes and U.K. Chancellor Hammond’s Autumn budget. Sterling could be sensitive to the latest economic forecasts from OBR and any significant announcements made by the Chancellor. The euro is holding its ground above 1.17, AUD and NZD are attempting to bottom but the moves look fleeting. USD/CAD is below the 20-day SMA, signaling the possibility of further losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -CHF
+USD, +CAD
mildly +AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy CADCHF at .7759, Stop .7731, Target .7787
2. Buy CHFJPY at 113.36, Stop at 113.08, Target 113.64
3. Buy USDJPY at market 112.06, Stop 111.78, Target 112.34

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.16.2017 – EURAUD, EURUSD, EURGBP, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The next 48 hours is all about NAFTA and tax reform, The 5th round of negotiations are underway in Mexico and the US House of Representations are scheduled to vote on their tax bill later today. The Senate could finish marking up their bill by Friday. The U.S. dollar is trading strongly against most of the major currencies ahead of these key developments with yields supporting the moves. The euro is down sharply, extending Wednesday’s slide and further losses could continue. There’s political risk in Germany as the German coalition struggling during their four-party talks. If the coalition fails, it could take EUR/USD back to 1.1650. Sterling is up thanks to stronger than expected retail sales while the commodity currencies remain under pressure with the New Zealand dollar leading the losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
+GBP
-CAD
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +JPY
-EUR, -CHF, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1 Sell EURGBP at .8916, Stop at .8944, Target .8888
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1762, Stop at 1.1790, Target 1.1733
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5502, Stop at 1.5530, Target 1.5474
4. Buy CADCHF at .7782, Stop .7754, Target .7810

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.15.2017 – CADCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major, led by the decline in U.S. yields. This sell-off took USD/JPY firmly below 113 and the EUR/USD well above 1.18. 10 year Treasury yields are down more than 3bp this morning but we see similar declines in UK and German yields which makes the yen crosses the biggest losers. The deeply oversold New Zealand dollar is the biggest beneficiary of US dollar weakness but the rally is losing steam at the 20-day SMA. The Canadian dollar is steady ahead of the NAFTA talks while the Australian dollar finds itself underperforming all of the majors following softer wage growth. Sterling is also on the back foot with wage growth slowing – this weakness should exacerbate the GBP crosses. We have US retail sales, consumer prices and the Empire State manufacturing releases – 3 extremely important reports for the U.S. dollar that could either reverse the slide or extend the losses easily.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD (predata)
+EUR
-GBP
-NZD
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -NZD, -AUD, -CAD
+EUR, +CHF, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell NZDJPY at market now 77.89, Stop at 78.17, Target 77.61
2. Sell CADCHF at market now .7741, Stop .7769, Target .7713
3. Place Order to Buy EURGBP at .8995, Stop at .8867, Target .9023

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.14.2017 – USDJPY, GBPCHF, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The euro is trading sharply higher this morning against all of the major currencies on the back of a stronger than expected German GDP growth. ECB President Draghi didnt say anything damaging to the currency, allowing EUR/USD to take out 1.17 easily. While we are super bullish euros the move has taken EUR/USD to the 100-day SMA and the pair is struggling to extend its gains beyond that level. By the same token, sterling is underperforming because of soft CPI numbers but EUR/GBP is also at the 100-day SMA, which is a natural place of resistance. The U.S. dollar is taking a backseat today but 10 year yields are back below 2.4% and that is weighing on the currency. This morning’s US PPI report isn’t expected to have a significant impact on the currency. The Canadian and Australian dollars appear poised for a recovery while the New Zealand dollar extended its losses for a 4th consecutive trading day.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-USD
-GBP
+CHF
+AUD
+CAD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +AUD, +CAD
-USD, -GBP, -JPY, -NZD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell USDJPY at market now 113.67, Stop 113.95, Target 113.39
2. Sell GBPCHF at market now 1.3046, Stop at 1.3074, Target 1.3018
3. Sell CADCHF at market now .7814, Stop at .7842, Target .7786

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 10.16.2017 – EURUSD, EURGBP, CADCHF, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are starting the week with a mixed U.S. dollar that is trading higher against EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF but lower versus the GBP, JPY and NZD. Although we have the Empire State manufacturing survey scheduled for release today, it is a week devoid of any major market moving U.S. economic reports. Instead, Fed speak and geopolitical risks will be key and that’s why USD/JPY is struggling to rise because the uneven U.S. recovery, NK risks and the selection of a Fed chair hang over the currency. The worst performing currency this morning is the Canadian dollar, which has bounced off the 20/50 SMA cross to trade back above 1.25. The euro is under pressure due to Catalonia uncertainty but GBP is powering higher anticipation of positive economic reports this week. We don’t expect an exceptionally volatile NY trading session but we may see continuation on the latest moves.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+GBP
-CAD
+CHF
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -AUD, -NZD
+GBP, +CHF, +CAD, +JPY
mildly +USD,

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7675, Stop at .7705. Target .7655
2. Sell EURGBP at .8872, Stop at .8902, Target .8852
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1802, Stop at 1.1832. Target 1.1782
4. Sell CADCHF at .7782, Stop at .7812, Target .7762

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.13.2017 – EURUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The most important pieces of U.S. data this week are scheduled for release today and the steady to slightly weaker performance for the dollar suggests that investors are worried that retail sales and CPI will not live up to lofty expectations. Or they believe that even if these numbers are strong, it will not alter the odds of a December rate hike which is still nearly 2 months away. With that in mind, U.S. yields are pointing higher before the reports so we still expect a run-up in the greenback ahead of the 8:30am numbers. Meanwhile short covering continues to drive the AUD and NZD as these currencies shrug off mixed Chinese trade data. Sterling has extended its gains while the euro lags behind. The loonie is quiet but should tick up as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+GBP
+AUD
+NZD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -CHF
+GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CAD
mildly +USD, -JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURGBP a .8893, Stop at .8923, Target .8873
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1821, Stop at 1.1851, Target 1.1801
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6546, Stop at 1.6576, Target 1.6526
4. Buy CADCHF at .7824, Stop at .7794, Target .7854

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 09.11.2017 – USDJPY, USDCHF, CADCHF, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With U.S. yields up more than 4bp, the dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning. Investors are relieved that Florida skirted major damage from Hurricane Irma and according to North Korea TV, they may be ready to meet with U.S. officials. As a result, USD/JPY is this morning’s best performing currency. It has been hit hard in the past 2 months and due for a short squeeze. While the Canadian dollar continued to power higher, testing the 1.21 level AUD and NZD are lagging behind. Sterling is also trading firmly ahead of this week’s monetary policy announcement. Last but not least the euro is holding 1.20 but it support looks fleeting.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
+CAD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD
-JPY, -CHF
MILDLY +AUD, +NZD
MLDLY -EUR

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy USDCHF at market now 0.9491, Stop at 0.9461, Target 0.9511
2. Buy CADCHF at market now 0.7843, Stop at 0.7813, Target 0.7863
3. Sell EURGBP at market now 0.9088, Stop at 0.9118, Target 0.9068
4. Back in USDJPY long at 108.52, Stop, 108.22, Target 108.72

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

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