CADJPY Big Trade 04.18.2016 -157

by Kathy Lien Swing

Close CAD/JPY Trade at market (now 86.37)

Its breaking all resistance as CAD soars

4/18 Triggered

New CAD/JPY Order

Place Order to Sell CAD/JPY at 84.80

Stop at 86.80

There are 2 reasons why we like selling CAD/JPY. First oil prices are falling following the disappointment in Doha and we believe this move could put additional pressure on oil and carve out a near term bottom in the Canadian dollar. We are also bearish US dollars and the continuous cycle of earthquakes in Japan makes us worried that more damage could hit the nation. Each tremor has led to a bout of yen strength and between our bearish outlook for the dollar and bullish outlook for the yen, we believe that the Yen component of the trade should also drive CAD/JPY down.

2 New Big Trade Orders 04.18.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

2 New Big Trade Orders

New CAD/JPY Order

Place Order to Sell CAD/JPY at 84.80

Stop at 86.80

There are 2 reasons why we like selling CAD/JPY. First oil prices are falling following the disappointment in Doha and we believe this move could put additional pressure on oil and carve out a near term bottom in the Canadian dollar. We are also bearish US dollars and the continuous cycle of earthquakes in Japan makes us worried that more damage could hit the nation. Each tremor has led to a bout of yen strength and between our bearish outlook for the dollar and bullish outlook for the yen, we believe that the Yen component of the trade should also drive CAD/JPY down.

New USD/CHF Order

Place Order to Sell USD/CHF at 0.9680

Stop at 0.9880

Between last week’s surprise contraction in retail sales and sluggish consumer price growth, the Fed has zero reasons to raise interest rates in April AND June. At this stage we need to see retail sales rise more than 0.5% in each of the next 2 months for tightening at the beginning of the summer to even be a possibility. The Fed is meeting next week and there’s a very good chance that the overall tone of the statement will be dovish -- so we are looking for additional dollar weakness ahead and on the back of this event. The dollar remains a sell on rallies.

AUD/CAD Big Trade 04.14.2016 -58

by Kathy Lien Swing

BK AUD/CAD Big Trade -- Close at market (0.9918), we don’t want to be in a trade ahead of Doha. We’ll revisit afterwards

Raise AUD/CAD Sell order to 0.9860 ahead of AU employment. Stop to 1.0060. Will revisit Thurs if it doesn’t trigger

Place Order to Sell AUD/CAD at 0.9810

Stop at 1.0010

We’re not getting the continuation move that we had been hoping for with USD/CAD and so the trade is looking far less attractive technically even though it has only rallied against us by a small margin. However this move along with the performance of AUD/CAD makes AUD/CAD a far more attractive trade because down days in AUD are often followed by 2-5 days of continuation. So we’re rotating out of USD/CAD in favor of a new AUD/CAD positions

USD/CAD Big Trade 04.12.2013 -33

by Kathy Lien Swing

4/13 -- Close USD/CAD trade at market (now 1.2805)

4/12 Sell USD/CAD at market (now 1.2772) -- we hit 72 (edited)

Stop at 1.2972

While the Bank of Canada expressed some concern about the level of its currency and its impact on the non-resource sector, their decision to revise up their 2016 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 1.4% is extremely positive for CAD as it reflects their positive outlook for the domestic economy. We’ve chosen to buy CAD versus USD because this morning’s surprisingly weak US retail sales report highlights the ongoing problems in the U.S. economy that should keep the greenback under pressure.

EUR/USD Big Trade Order 4.12.2016 -130

by Kathy Lien Swing

4/13
Out of EURUSD

4/13 -- Move EUR/USD Stop up to 1.1260 -- we’ll buy again lower if the stop is hit because if it breaks 1.1270 then its headed to 1.1200 and maybe even 1.1160

4/12 -- Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390 TRIGGERED

Place Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390

Stop at 1.1190

The trend in euro has been strong and we still think the pair is aiming for 1.1500 and higher. The market detests dollars right now and the emergency Fed meeting tomorrow suggests that something is afoot. Especially since it comes hours before Yellen meets with President Obama. These are closed door meetings so no comments will be made but there’s certainly reasons to believe that there are lingering concerns about the U.S. economy. Also, the euro is being driven by risk this week and we believe that China will report higher exports which should help boost risk appetite and in turn the euro.

AUD/CAD Big Trade 04.11.2016 +50

by Kathy Lien Swing Uncategorized

4/12 -- Close AUD/CAD at market 9800. Will reload some type of CAD trade later

4/12 -- AUD/CAD Game Plan -- Because there’s a good chance that tonight’s Chinese trade numbers could show improvement (after last month’s drop and rise in PMI manufacturing) we are either going to flip out of AUD/CAD into USD/CAD a few hours before the data OR we will close/take profit on AUD/CAD and reload later. The data is generally released between 9pm-10pm NY Time.

4/12 -- Order to Sell AUDCAD at 0.9850 TRIGGERED

Place Order to Sell AUDCAD at 0.9850

Stop at 1.0050

After last week’s strong employment report, we have every reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will be more optimistic especially given the recovery in oil prices since their last meeting. So if we are given the opportunity, we would like to buy CAD on a dip and are trying to do so through USDCAD or AUDCAD -- if one of these orders trigger, we will cancel the other

Tuesday Trading Tip – Bank of Canada Preview

by Kathy Lien Bank of Canada Canadian Dollar forex blog Kathy Lien

The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow and based on the following table, they have more reasons to smile this month with consumer spending and job growth improving significantly. Oil prices are also up 10% since March and the slowing down of Fed tightening will remove some of their worries about the outlook for Canada’s economy. So chances are the BoC rate decision will be positive for the Canadian dollar

CAD0416

New EUR/USD, AUD/CAD and USD/CAD Big Trade Orders 04.11.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

EUR/USD Big Trade Order

Place Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390

Stop at 1.1190

The trend in euro has been strong and we still think the pair is aiming for 1.1500 and higher. The market detests dollars right now and the emergency Fed meeting tomorrow suggests that something is afoot. Especially since it comes hours before Yellen meets with President Obama. These are closed door meetings so no comments will be made but there’s certainly reasons to believe that there are lingering concerns about the U.S. economy. Also, the euro is being driven by risk this week and we believe that China will report higher exports which should help boost risk appetite and in turn the euro.

2 Big Trade Order for USD/CAD and AUD/CAD

Place Order to Sell USDCAD at 1.2993

Stop at 1.3193

Place Order to Sell AUDCAD at 0.9850

Stop at 1.0050

After last week’s strong employment report, we have every reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will be more optimistic especially given the recovery in oil prices since their last meeting. So if we are given the opportunity, we would like to buy CAD on a dip and are trying to do so through USDCAD or AUDCAD -- if one of these orders trigger, we will cancel the other

We also have 1 live trade and 1 pending order:

Live


EUR/GBP

Order to Buy EUR/GBP at 0.8050 TRIGGERED

Stop 0.7850

*Take Profit Set at 0.8120

Pending


AUD/NZD

Place Order to Sell AUD/NZD at 1.1150

Stop at 1.1350

New AUD/JPY and EUR/GBP Big Trade Orders

by Kathy Lien Swing

BK Big Trade Orders -- AUD/JPY and EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP -Change Entry Levels to the following:

Place Order to Buy EUR/GBP at 0.8050

Stop 0.7850

ECB President Draghi said nothing damaging to the euro this morning and the ECB minutes were relatively benign. As such, we believe EUR/GBP remains a screaming buy and are adjusting our orders accordingly.

New AUD/JPY Order

Place Order to Sell AUD/JPY at 81.70

Stop at 83.70

USD/JPY is melting down and AUD/USD appears to be topping, making AUD/JPY a very attractive trade. Bank of Japan intervention is a risk but it appears not a very serious one given recent comments from Japanese officials. We’re not sure if the order will be filled but if AUD/JPY rallies to 81.70, we want to be sellers near that level because AUD/JPY is headed for 80.00.