Today’s Trades 08.29.2018 AUDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, USDCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar down against the euro and up against sterling. There’s not much to explain these moves because what we’ve seen so far today is more euro positive and sterling negative. To be more specific, Italian yields are down, German yields are up which should support the euro. The UK’s Raab is complaining about EU Brexit negotiator Barnier’s availability -- which is another sign that the talks may not be going well but GBP seems to be ignoring the news. The worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which sold off aggressively after Westpac raised its variable mortgage rates by 14bp. This makes home payments more expensive for consumers which tightens their pocketbooks and dampens the RBA’s ability to raise interest rates. The Canadian dollar is in play today with the possibility of some updates from Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland’s trade talks with the US and USD/CAD is bouncing off its lows in anticipation but we think its going to head lower as the day progresses because Canada has no choice but to deal. Canada’s current account balance is also due for release. Revisions to second quarter US GDP and pending home sales are due from the US today -- we don’t expect either of these reports to have a significant impact on the greenback as investors focus on risk appetite and trade headlines.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -AUD, -CHF, -NZD,
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7305, Stop at .7334, Target .7277
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2893, Stop at 1.2865, Target 1.2921
3. Sold AUDCAD at .9949, Stop at .9476, Target .9420
4. Buy USDCHF at .9768, Stop at. 9740, Target .9796

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.08.2018 USDCHF, AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly positive open but currencies are still reeling from last night’s sell-off in Asian equities. Chinese stocks dropped more than 1% as ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tension continues to pressure the markets. The Yuan resumed its slide despite mixed Chinese trade data -- the trade surplus declined but exports and imports increased. All of the Japanese Yen crosses are trading lower, led by the decline in USD/JPY. Now that 111 has been broken, the main levels to watch are 110.80 (50-day SMA) and 110.60 (July 26 low). The weakest currency is sterling which fell to a fresh 11 month low today. GBP/USD has not seen a rally in 7 trading days and with no data to support the currency, investors are focused on the growing risk on a no-deal Brexit. The greenback is mixed and a quiet data day means risk on/risk off will drive dollar flows. EUR and AUD are flat but there’s a good chance that we could see some weakness in the NY session. NZD on the other hand should be quiet with the RBNZ rate decision tonight whereas USD/CAD could struggle underneath 1.31.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
Neutral NZD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9955, Stop at .9927, Target .9983
2. Buy EURCAD at 1.5173, Stop at 1.5145, Target 1.5201
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7412, Stop at. 7440, Target .7384
4. Buy CADJPY at 84.85, Stop at 84.57, Target 85.13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.20.2018 AUDUSD, CHFJPY, EURAUD, USDCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The NY morning starts with a series of damaging trade headlines. President Trump said he’s ready to put tariffs on ALL $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. and the German Chancellor Merkel said the E.U. is ready to retaliate against any U.S. auto tariffs. Trade tensions are escalating and not easing causing the Chinese Yuan to fall further. Yuan weakness has been a big story this week and the ramifications will be significant for the region’s economy. But currencies did not have a big reaction to Trump’s latest threats and that could be because investors are growing numb to his antagonistic attitude. With that in mind, we still believe that AUD and NZD will underperform as a result of these latest comments. U.S. yields are also up today, supporting a rally in the U.S. dollar. European Stocks and Dow futures on the other hand have turned negative following the trade talk. The Canadian dollar will be in focus this morning with retail sales and CPI scheduled for release. The lack of U.S. economic reports means the greenback will be trading on headline risk.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD (pre-data)
+EUR
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD pre-data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7361, Stop at .7389. Target .7333
2. Buy CHFJPY at 112.63, stop aa 112.35, Target 112.91
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.4820, Stop at 1.5792, Target 1.5848
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3250, Stop at 1.3278, Target 1.3222

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.11.2018 USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Escalating trade tensions has been good and not bad for the U.S. dollar and thats why we’re seeing the currency trade higher across the board this morning after the Trump Administration released a new list of Chinese products that are subject to tariffs. China plans to retaliate and investors area waiting with bated breath for their response. The currency hit the hardest by these tensions is the Australian dollar which dropped below 74 cents despite stronger consumer confidence. NZD is also very weak which should not be a surprise as the economy’s underlying weakness is exacerbated by trade troubles. Although US yields are down today and Dow futures are pointing to a significantly lower open, USDJPY is aiming for its March 111.39 high. Producer prices are scheduled for release this morning and a good number could encourage USD/JPY to test resistance. Euro is one of the most resilient currencies at the start of the NY session thanks to the relative stability of German yields and the 1.17 support level. Aside from trade, the main focus will be the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement. The Canadian dollar is trading lower ahead of the event but the market is pricing in a 97% chance of a hike. This tells us that investors are focusing more on guidance than tightening. Looking ahead, risk appetite will be key. If stocks reverse their losses, so will currencies but if the Dow falls 300 points or more, many currencies will extend their losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-AUD
-NZD
+USD
+EUR

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR
-AUD, -NZD, -CHF
neutral GBP, CAD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8848, Stop at .8820, Target .8876
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7391, Stop at .7419, Target .7363
3. Buy EURNZD at 1.7250, Stop at 1.7222, Target 1.7278
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.22, Stop at 110.94, Target 111.50

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.28.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, AUDUSD, USDCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is consolidating after yesterday’s strong rally. While USD/JPY remains firm at the start of the NY session, the greenback is slipping versus the euro and Canadian dollar. EURO is supported by positive ECB comments and the prospect of stronger German CPI. The recent rise in oil prices makes it difficult for USD/CAD to extend its gains and this morning it is testing the lower bound of its 6 day range. If USD/CAD breaks 1.3250, we should see a quick slide down to 1.3200. The New Zealand dollar is trading at fresh 1 year lows following the RBNZ rate decision. Sterling also hit one year lows despite positive comments from the BoE and higher UK yields. The problem for many of these currencies is risk aversion -- stocks may be flat today but the Chinese Yuan continues its losing streak and the accompanying weakness in Asian stocks makes investors worried about global growth. US GDP revisions are scheduled for release this morning -- we are also nearing the end of the quarter so watch out for rebalancing flows. Given how much the dollar has risen over the past 3 months, quarter end portfolio rebalancing should involve selling of U.S. dollars.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +USDJPY
-JPY, -NZD, -USD
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 127.62, Stop at 127.34, Target 127.90
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3281, Stop at 1.3309, Target 1.3253
3. Sold USDCAD at 1.3284, Stop at 1.3312, Target 1.3256
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7353, Stop at .7325, Target .7381

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.20.2018 AUDUSD, EURUSD, CHFJPY, AUDNZD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the U.S. dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning, the moves are relatively modest. Equities have stopped falling and yields are flat but after yesterday’s high anxiety trade, it is still too early to tell if this is the eye of the hurricane or the calm after the storm. The trade war is brewing strong with political risks continuing to haunt currencies. The worst performing currency today is the Swiss Franc followed by the euro and New Zealand dollar. There’s no news for Switzerland but jawboning by ECB member Nowotny who said he sees the euro falling against the dollar is hurting the currency. The EU also announced plans to impose 2.8 billion euros worth of tariffs on US imports on Friday. NZD on the other hand is pressured by softer consumer confidence and yesterday’s drop in dairy prices. GBP/USD fell to a fresh 7 month low ahead of a second Brexit vote, this time by the House of Commons on whether Parliament has a final say on the Brexit deal. The vote is expected around 18:30 GMT. While the U.S. releases existing home sales and its current account balance later this morning, the main focus will be on ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Powell and BoJ Governor Kuroda’s comments in Sintra around 13:30 GMT. There’s also a number of OPEC headlines that could affect how the loonie trades. USD/CAD raced above 1.33 this morning and is still trying to figure out whether it has the strength to take out another big figure.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
-GBP
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CHF, -AUD, CAD
+JPY, +USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7388, Stop at .7416, Target .7360
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1563, Stop at 1.1591, Target 1.1535
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0735, Stop at 1.0707, Target 1.0763
4. Sell CHFJPY at 110.32, Stop at 110.60, Target 110.04

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUDUSD – Is that All There is

AUDUSD – Is that All There is

by Boris Schlossberg Chart Of The Day

At the start of the week, the Aussie got the bulls hearts racing as it barrelled through the .7600 level on much better than expected Retail Sales data. But the excitement didn’t last as the RBA quickly poured cold water over any expectations that the central bank would alter its neutral stance anytime soon.

The RBA kept rates on hold for 22nd consecutive month offering nothing new as far as future plans. It made a mildly positive remark about the trough in wage growth, but wages remain well below the RBA normal growth path of 3.5% and in the meantime the central bank remains concerned about the growing trade tensions between US and China, worried that Australia may bear the fallout of any trade war.

Today the market will get a look at the Aussie GDP data which is expected to rise by 0.9% versus 0.4% the month prior. A good print could put the pair back on track towards the .7650 level but the pair remains capped at .7700 for now. Still, the positive data this week should keep the pair supported and it looks like it made a clear longterm bottom at the .7500 level

Today’s Trades 04.10.2018 – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It was no surprise that Chinese President Xi took the high road by refraining from escalating trade tensions with the U.S. during his speech last night. Instead he stressed China’s willingness to cooperate by saying they could lower trade tariffs on autos and tighten enforcement on intellectual property rights. In return, USD/JPY bounced back above 107 and risk currencies traded higher across the board led by gains in AUD and NZD. The U.S. dollar is still underperforming after the FBI raided the offices of Trump’s lawyer, putting the trail one step closer to the President. EUR/USD is testing the 50-day SMA for the second day in a row and and looks set to break it. Sterling is benefitting from positive BoE comments the Canadian dollar is finally moving lower on the prospect of a NAFTA deal. U.S. PPI and Canadian housing starts/permits are the only economic reports on today’s calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-JPY
+CAD
+AUD
+EUR
+NZD
+USDJPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-JPY, -USD (except vs. USDJPY)
neutral CHF, GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 107.07, Stop at 106.79, Target 107.35
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2677, Stop at 1.2705, Target 1.2649
3. Buy AUDUSD at .7740, Stop at .7712, Target .7768

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.15.2018 – AUDUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, AUDCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are under pressure this morning after yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. equities. Although Asian and European stocks were flat investors remain nervous about softer U.S. data and political uncertainty in the Trump Administration. Larry Kudlow is widely expected to be named Gary Cohn’s replacement today but Attorney General Jeff Sessions could be the next one to go. USD/JPY is under the greatest pressure but 105.50 is important support. If the market interprets Kudlow’s nomination as positive for the risk, that level will hold rather than break. The euro is trading heavy after ECB President Draghi’s dovish comments but its losses are moderate compared to some of the other major currencies -- on a flow basis it looks like it wants to take another trip below 1.2350. Sterling is quickly closing in on 1.3900, an important support level. All 3 of the commodity currencies are trading lower this morning with the Australian dollar leading the slide. The New Zealand dollar is surprisingly resilient considering the market’s initial disappointment with Q4 GDP. USD/CAD is on the move again this morning and eyeing another run to 1.30. We don’t think this level will break but the pair could come close to testing it.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-AUD
-CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF
neutral USD (-USDJPY but +USD vs. other currencies)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7423, Stop at .7451, Target .7395
2. Sell EURJPY at 130.88, Stop at 131.16, Target 130.60
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2369, Stop at 1.2941, Target 1.2997
4. Sell AUDUSD at .7853, Stop at .7881, Target .7825

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

by Kathy Lien Chart Of The Day

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

AUD/USD traded higher today, extending its gains on the back of U.S. dollar weakness. While there were no Australian economic reports released overnight, AUD/USD traders were relieved that Australia has also been granted an exemption from Trump’s trade tariffs. Although Australia’s steel and aluminum exports are nominal (only about US$213 million each), psychologically this decision highlight the strong relationship between the U.S. and Australia although both parties denied that this had anything to do with military support. Regardless, the Australian economic calendar is light with the exception of some speeches from RBA officials this week – the last we heard from RBA Governor Lowe, although they maintain a firmly neutral policy the next RBA rate move will be up not down because the economy is moving in the right direction as non-mining spend rises by the largest amount since the financial crisis.

Technically, AUD/USD broke out of a 4 day consolidation and appears poised for a move to at least 79 cents. The 50-day SMA sits at .7893 and if that is broken, the next stop for AUD/USD should be the Feb 16th high of .7988. If AUD/USD fails at .79 cents and moves back below .7835, the losses could take the pair to the bottom of its recent range near .7780.

Today’s Trades 03.05.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDCAD, AUDUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning except the Japanese Yen, though USD/JPY has found support above 105.50. What’s interesting about this morning’s move is that its not necessarily driven by risk aversion as European stocks trade higher and Dow futures point to a only a modestly lower open. The markets are slightly nervous about the elections in Europe, encouraged by the stronger PMI data in the UK and eager to take USD/CAD to fresh 8 month highs. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also under pressure but unlikely to see any big movements until U.S. stocks move significantly in one direction or another. This is a big week in the FX market with 4 central bank rate decisions on the calendar (RBA, BoJ, ECB, BoC) and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Today, the ISM non-manufacturing index will be released and its important because its a leading indicator for NFP. Trade wars are still on everyone’s minds but with no new antagonism from China and other foreign nations over the weekend , it has taken a backseat to Europe’s political developments.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD,
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD, -CHF
mildly +GBP
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8904, Stop at .8932, Target .8876
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2299, Stop at 1.2327, Target 1.2271
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7746, Stop at .7774, Target .7718
4. Buy AUDCAD at 1.0010, Stop at .9982, Target 1.0038

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.26.2018 – EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the North American trading session lower against all of the major currencies but it is quietly recovering its losses, particularly against the Japanese Yen as U.S. stocks point to a positive open. Thanks to the early performance of U.S. equity futures and the overnight rallies in European and Asian stocks, today should be a day of improved risk appetite. This could benefit all of the yen pairs and drive the Swiss Franc lower. It should also be positive for risk currencies like the EUR and AUD but on a technical basis, the rallies are meeting resistance which suggests that the USD could lead the gains rather than the demand for risk. We had initially sold EURGBP but exited on Brexit noise. Corbyn’s comments that the UK is still in the dark over May’s Brexit plans and will not be joining a customs union after Brexit is a threat to the currency’s earlier gains. The euro is at the upper end of its 4 day range and Mario Draghi’s speech at 9AM NY could affect how the currency trades. The commodity currencies are also beginning to give up their earlier gains as well with CAD and AUD the weakest performers. Today’s U.S. new home sales report is not expected to have a significant impact on currencies as investors wait for Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-JPY
-CHF
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-CHF, -JPY, AUD, -NZD,
mildly +EUR
mildly -GBP, -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9344, stop at .9315, Target .9372
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7861, Stop at .7889, Target .7833
3. Buy EURJPY at 131.68. Stop at 131.40. Target 131.96

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT