Today’s Trading Plan 10.05.17 – EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are trading sharply lower this morning with the losses led by AUD/USD and USD/JPY. Softer Australian data last night sent AUD tumbling and puts the currency at risk of a steeper decline to 78 cents. Sterling on the other hand is being hit by comments from Prime Minister May who proposed cap household energy prices and more social housing. The dollar is also weak with USD/JPY losing ground quickly on the back of falling yields and this is pushing all of the Yen crosses lower. North American traders will have their eyes on Canada and the U.S.’ trade balance reports along with speeches from Fed Presidents Powell, Williams and Harker (all by 10am NY).

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -JPY, -CHF
neutral NZD
mildly +USD (but not vs JPY), +CAD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell AUDNZD at 1.0928, Stop at 1.0958, Target 1.0908
2. Sell EURJPY at 132.15, Stop 132.45, Target 131.95
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1744, Stop at 1.1774, Target 1.1724
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7836, Stop at .7866, Target .7816

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Todays Trade Ideas 08.25.2017 – USDJPY, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The euro came within a few pips of hitting a new 10 day high versus the U.S. dollar this morning and while the dollar is up versus the Yen, its weakness against other currencies is a sign of how investors feel going into Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole this morning. She is widely expected to suggest that balance sheet normalization needs to happen but investors are worried that she won’t provide much more. We know that the Fed’s leadership which includes Yellen, Fischer and Dudley still believe that rates could rise before the end of the year (particularly Dudley who said so earlier this month) but its unclear whether Yellen will address that today’s speech. Draghi on the other hand is likely to stay tight lipped but the euro seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the market’s expectations for Yellen disappointment. This morning’s German IFO report was mixed with the business climate index falling and the expectations index rising. The rest of the other major currencies including sterling is trading higher versus the greenback and this weakness has allowed USD/CAD to knock on 1.25’s door.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +CAD, +EUR, +CHF
-JPY
slightly +AUD, +NZD
slightly -USD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell AUDCHF at market now 0.7622, Stop at 0.7662, Target 0.7612
2. Sell USDJPY at market now 109.63, Stop at 110.03, Target 109.43

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan for 07.19.2017 – AUDCHF and EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It is a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with only AUD and NZD on the move. Both currencies hit new highs as the dollar remains under pressure. Although U.S. rates are up slightly this morning, USD/JPY. With the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank holding monetary policy meetings in the next 24 hours, it could be a consolidate day of FX trade with the EURO giving up some of its exaggerated gains. Yen moves should be limited as no one expects a surprise from the BoJ. Today’s reports on U.S. housing starts and building permits could help the dollar (as recoveries are anticipated) but it won’t reverse the course of the greenback. USD/CAD will be at the beck and whim of oil prices today with inventories on tap.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
+AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -USD,
+AUD, +CAD, +CHF
neutral NZD, GBP, JPY

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Buy AUDCHF at market now 0.7572, Stop at 0.7532, Target 0.75922
2. Sell EURGBP at market now 0.8838, Stop at 0.8878, Target 0.8818

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Views 06.19.2017 – AUDCHF, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There are a few big stories driving currency trade this morning. First, EUR/USD climbed back above 1.12 after French President Macron’s party grabbed a solid victory in French Parliamentary vote. Brexit talks begin this week with sterling trading firmer. GBP/USD is hovering near 1.12 as the government moves forward with the Queen’s speech. The JPY is lower after Japan reported an unexpected trade deficit while AUD has been hit by Moody’s decision to lower the credit rating of 4 major banks.

As for the U.S. dollar, FOMC voter Dudley speech at 8am NY Time / 12 GMT will be key. Yellen’s unexpected hawkishness last week was met by less enthusiasm from Fed voters Kashkari and Kaplan. If Dudley also expresses less support for tightening, USD/JPY could slip back down to 110.50.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
Possible top in EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

mildly -USD, -JPY
mildly +EUR, +CHF
mildly bearish GBP, AUD
neutral CAD, NZD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

Sell AUDCHF at market now 0.7385, Stop at 0.7435, Target 0.7355

Sell USDJPY at market now 111.09, Stop at 111.59, Target 110.79

Today’s Trading Plan 05.02.2017 – AUD/NZD, AUD/CHF, GBP/NZD

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

The U.S. dollar and European currencies are strong this morning with USD/JPY taking out 112. There was no specific data to catalyze the move but U.S. rates continue to creep upwards and that is helping the currency. UK and German rates are also higher. In contrast, AUD, NZD, and CAD are weak. The RBA left interest rates unchanged last night and failed to acknowledge the improvements in the economy, leading to weakness in AUD. Traders should watch New Zealand’s dairy auction this morning. Canadian yields and oil prices are up but the loonie continues to fall as USD/CAD takes aim at 1.37.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

EUR, GBP strength
AUD, NZD weakness

*Currencies we plan on day trading and the direction*
*These could change during the day, but for now

We will be trading around these themes –

-AUD, -NZD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY
neutral USDJPY, CAD, CHF

*Starting Trades*

OPENED AT MARKET AUDNZD Sell
ENTRY – 1.08640
STOP – 1.09140
TAKE PROFIT – 1.08340

OPENED AT MARKET AUDCHF Sell
ENTRY – 0.74730
STOP – 0.75230
TAKE PROFIT – 0.74430

OPENED AT MARKET GBPNZD Buy
ENTRY – 1.86837
STOP – 1.86337
TAKE PROFIT – 1.87137

AUDCHF – Prime for a Break

AUDCHF – Prime for a Break

Chart Of The Day

The Australian dollar is in play this week with a RBA rate decision, retail sales, trade and PMI reports on the calendar. A small group of investors are looking for the RBA to ease and while we do not believe that the economy deteriorated enough to warrant the third rate cut this year, there are many reasons for the Reserve Bank to be dovish. Last night we learned that manufacturing activity slowed significantly and while service sector activity numbers won’t be released until after the RBA meeting, the drop in construction sector activity indicates that the slowdown is not limited to manufacturing. Labor market and inflationary conditions also softened since the last meeting and imports from China plunged. While the RBA will be encouraged by the recent easing from the PBoC and improvement in market indices, China’s response is to slowing growth. We have chosen to sell AUD versus CHF because there is little Swiss Franc risk and more importantly, on a technical basis, the franc appears to be due for a deeper correction.

Technically AUD/CHF is trapped between 2 important moving averages – above we have the 200-day SMA at 72 cents capping gains and below the 100-day SMA hovering just a hair above 70 cents supporting the pair. The RBA rate decision will a trigger a break of one of these moving averages and we believe that support will give, ending the pair down to the October 21st low of 0.6873.

New AUD/CHF Big Trade Order – Stopped

Swing

11/27 – Stopped out

***11/19 – Second Entry Triggered. AVERAGE ENTRY AT 0.7158


11/2 – First Entry Triggered

New AUD/CHF Big Trade Order

Place Order to Sell 1 Lot AUD/CHF at 0.7045

Place Order to Sell 1 More at 0.7270

Stop for ALL 0.7437

The Australian dollar is in play this week with a RBA rate decision, retail sales, trade and PMI reports on the calendar. A small group of investors are looking for the RBA to ease and while we do not believe that the economy deteriorated enough to warrant the third rate cut this year, there are many reasons for the Reserve Bank to be dovish. Last night we learned that manufacturing activity slowed significantly and while service sector activity numbers won’t be released until after the RBA meeting, the drop in construction sector activity indicates that the slowdown is not limited to manufacturing. Labor market and inflationary conditions also softened since the last meeting and imports from China plunged. While the RBA will be encouraged by the recent easing from the PBoC and improvement in market indices, China’s response is to slowing growth. We have chosen to sell AUD versus CHF because there is little Swiss Franc risk and more importantly, on a technical basis, the franc appears to be due for a deeper correction.