Today’s Trading Plan – AUD/USD, AUD/CAD and EUR/USD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There are a few big stories in the FX market this morning – the first is the DUP/Tory deal in the UK. Prime Minister May reached a compromise with the DUP by providing GBP 1billion in funding for Northern Ireland, in return, the DUP agreed to support a Conservative Minority government. Sterling jumped about 40 pips in response. Gold prices also crashed, catching traders by surprise with this move likely to weigh on AUD this morning. The U.S. dollar is firmer against the Yen, euro and Swiss Franc with yields ticking upwards. This morning’s stronger than expected IFO report failed to have any positive impact on the euro. There’s not much in the way of US data morning – we only have durable goods so yields will be the primary driver of dollar flows.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD
-AUD
-CHF

neutral CAD before data but ultimately bearish

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+USD, +CAD, +GBP, +JPY
-CHF, -AUD, -NZD
mildly -EUR

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell AUD/USD at market now 0.7570, Stop at 0.7620, Target 0.7540
2. Sell AUDCAD at market now 1.0017, stop at 1.0067,Target 0.9987
3. Place Order Sell EURUSD at 1.1187, Stop at 1.1237, Target 1.1157

All pending orders canceled by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT
All open day trades closed by 4PM NY / 20 GMT

Trading Plan 04.27.2017 – AUDCAD, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar did not extend its losses in the overnight session but President Trump’s tax reform disappointment should cap gains for the greenback. The big focus this morning is the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting. They are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged but between stronger data and lower inflation, the market is divided on what the ECB will emphasize. Commodity currencies are mixed today with CAD finally staging a strong rally off its high and AUD, NZD under pressure. GBP is very strong but there’s resistance near 1.29.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

GBP Strength

AUD, NZD weakness

CAD Recovery?

*Currencies we plan on day trading and the direction*
*These could change during the day, but for now

We will be trading around these themes –

+GBP

-AUD, -NZD, +CAD

-USD

waiting to see how market feels about EUR

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

mildly -EUR

-USD, -AUD, -NZD

+GBP, +CAD

:triangular_flag_on_post: *Starting Trades*

OPENED AT MARKET AUDCAD Sell

ENTRY – 1.01347

STOP – 1.01847

TAKE PROFIT – 1.01047

OPENED AT MARKET NZDJPY Sell

ENTRY – 76.628

STOP – 77.128

TAKE PROFIT – 76.328

AUD/CAD Targets Top of Range

AUD/CAD Targets Top of Range

Chart Of The Day

AUD/CAD Targets Top of Range

For the past week we’ve seen AUD/CAD consolidate between a relatively tight 0.9435 and 0.9535 trading range. This type of performance tends to happen when commodity currencies move in the same direction and / or the U.S. dollar dictates trading. While further range trading is possible, we also think that AUD/CAD is prime for an upside breakout. Fundamentally, the smaller decline in Chinese imports, rise in Chinese steel demand and less dovish RBA is positive for AUD. In contrast, the deterioration in Canadian manufacturing and housing market activity along with USD/CAD nearing oversold levels means that even if CAD rises further, its gains should AUD.

Technically, AUD/CAD has done a great job of holding above the 20-day SMA at 0.9435. If this level is broken then a move to the May low near 0.9335 becomes likely. However if AUDCAD breaks above 0.9540, the 61.8% Fib retracement of the 2015 year end rally then 96 cents will be the target. Either way, we are at least looking for a move to the top of the range at 0.9535 before any of that happens.

AUD/CAD Big Trade 04.14.2016 -58

Swing

BK AUD/CAD Big Trade – Close at market (0.9918), we don’t want to be in a trade ahead of Doha. We’ll revisit afterwards

Raise AUD/CAD Sell order to 0.9860 ahead of AU employment. Stop to 1.0060. Will revisit Thurs if it doesn’t trigger

Place Order to Sell AUD/CAD at 0.9810

Stop at 1.0010

We’re not getting the continuation move that we had been hoping for with USD/CAD and so the trade is looking far less attractive technically even though it has only rallied against us by a small margin. However this move along with the performance of AUD/CAD makes AUD/CAD a far more attractive trade because down days in AUD are often followed by 2-5 days of continuation. So we’re rotating out of USD/CAD in favor of a new AUD/CAD positions

AUD/CAD Big Trade 04.11.2016 +50

Swing Uncategorized

4/12 – Close AUD/CAD at market 9800. Will reload some type of CAD trade later

4/12 – AUD/CAD Game Plan – Because there’s a good chance that tonight’s Chinese trade numbers could show improvement (after last month’s drop and rise in PMI manufacturing) we are either going to flip out of AUD/CAD into USD/CAD a few hours before the data OR we will close/take profit on AUD/CAD and reload later. The data is generally released between 9pm-10pm NY Time.

4/12 – Order to Sell AUDCAD at 0.9850 TRIGGERED

Place Order to Sell AUDCAD at 0.9850

Stop at 1.0050

After last week’s strong employment report, we have every reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will be more optimistic especially given the recovery in oil prices since their last meeting. So if we are given the opportunity, we would like to buy CAD on a dip and are trying to do so through USDCAD or AUDCAD – if one of these orders trigger, we will cancel the other

New EUR/USD, AUD/CAD and USD/CAD Big Trade Orders 04.11.2016

Swing

EUR/USD Big Trade Order

Place Order to Buy EUR/USD at 1.1390

Stop at 1.1190

The trend in euro has been strong and we still think the pair is aiming for 1.1500 and higher. The market detests dollars right now and the emergency Fed meeting tomorrow suggests that something is afoot. Especially since it comes hours before Yellen meets with President Obama. These are closed door meetings so no comments will be made but there’s certainly reasons to believe that there are lingering concerns about the U.S. economy. Also, the euro is being driven by risk this week and we believe that China will report higher exports which should help boost risk appetite and in turn the euro.

2 Big Trade Order for USD/CAD and AUD/CAD

Place Order to Sell USDCAD at 1.2993

Stop at 1.3193

Place Order to Sell AUDCAD at 0.9850

Stop at 1.0050

After last week’s strong employment report, we have every reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will be more optimistic especially given the recovery in oil prices since their last meeting. So if we are given the opportunity, we would like to buy CAD on a dip and are trying to do so through USDCAD or AUDCAD – if one of these orders trigger, we will cancel the other

We also have 1 live trade and 1 pending order:

Live


EUR/GBP

Order to Buy EUR/GBP at 0.8050 TRIGGERED

Stop 0.7850

*Take Profit Set at 0.8120

Pending


AUD/NZD

Place Order to Sell AUD/NZD at 1.1150

Stop at 1.1350

AUD/CAD to 97 Cents?

AUD/CAD to 97 Cents?

Chart Of The Day

AUD/CAD to 97 Cents?

In the past 48 hours we’ve seen a major breakdown in AUD/CAD. After trading within a tight 150-pip range for the past month, AUD/CAD dropped to its lowest level in 3 weeks and losses accelerated on the back of higher oil prices and stronger Canadian data. Over 40K jobs were created in the month of March, nearly all of which were full time. This was the largest amount of growth in 5 months and helped to drive the unemployment rate down to 7.1% when economists anticipated a steady reading. The participation rate also held steady, rounding out the report. The Bank of Canada meets next week and the last time we heard from them, they expressed very little concern about the strength of the currency. Since then oil prices have recovered and the CAD is trading near the same levels. The Australian dollar on the other hand is nearing a top. The Reserve Bank recently expressed concerns about the strength of the currency and the impact of global monetary policy. Looking ahead, AUD will be most sensitive to Chinese data while CAD traders will be focused on oil and the BoC.

Technically, the recent decline in AUD/CAD has taken the pair below its recent range low as well as the 50 and 100-day SMA. We believe that this is technically significant and opens the door for a move below 98 cents. The first area of support for the pair is 0.9780, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2015 to 2016 rally. It also coincides with spike lows in February. If this level is broken, then it should be smooth sailing down to 97 cents. Resistance is at the 50 & 100-day SMA cross and the former breakdown level of 99 cents.

AUD/CAD – Another Run to Parity

Chart Of The Day

AUD/CAD – Another Run to Parity

We are looking for AUD/CAD to make another run for parity. There’s one asset that has benefitted from recent developments including aggressive ECB stimulus, negative interest rates in many parts of the world to the Brussels attack and that is gold. We expect gold to remain in favor in the coming months especially as investors remain nervous about the economic, political and geopolitical landscape. The stability of the commodity should lend support to AUD but more importantly, Australia appears to be weathering China’s slowdown well and there’s a good chance this week’s PMI report will show a recovery in the manufacturing sector. The strength of the AUD should be a problem but so far the central bank doesn’t seem worried. Hence we expect AUD to outperform CAD as oil nears a top. Oil fundamentals don’t match up with the short squeeze driven rally. Supply, demand and inventories point to a move lower for the commodity and while we could see another rise above $40 a barrel, further gains are unlikely.

Technically, even with today’s pullback AUD/CAD remains in an uptrend with a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern in formation. The latest decline could take AUD/CAD as low as .9865 but hourly charts show support between 0.9910 and 0.9920. Parity remains resistance but as a level with extreme magnetism we expect it to be tested. A close above 1.000 would be needed for a run to the year to date high of 1.0085.

New AUD/CAD Big Trade Orders 03.28.2016 +50

Swing

3/30 – Profit target hit

3/29 – AUD/CAD Big Trade – Set a Profit Target of 0.9990. The pair seems to be struggling with crossing parity
3/28 – Order to Buy AUD/CAD at 0.9940 Triggered

New AUD/CAD Big Trade Orders

Place Order to Buy AUD/CAD at 0.9940

Stop at 0.9740

We are recycling our AUD/CAD trade. In our Monday Game Plan webinar we said we would be buying NZD/CAD but upon further thought, we’ve got more potentially positive AUD data this week than NZD data and we need data on our side to push the trade in our direction. The improvement in business confidence in Australia and the persistent strength of gold should keep AUD bid. CAD on the other hand deserves to be trading lower given the pullback in oil prices and the potential for a top in the commodity. We’re looking to buy a brief pullback in the pair for another run towards 1.00.

AUD/CAD Big Trade 03.23.2016 +60

Swing

3/24 – AUD/CAD We closed the trade at .9788 +60 on the trade

3/23

AUD/CAD Big Trade Update – Set Target at 0.9988. There should be resistance at parity, so anywhere between 0.9988 and 0.9995 is a good exit. I’m also not around the actively watch the trade, so this is the recommended tactic for AUD/CAD

3/23 – Order to Buy AUD/CAD at 0.9928 Triggered

New AUD/CAD Big Trade Orders

Place Order to Buy AUD/CAD at 0.9928

Stop at 0.9728

Gold is the biggest beneficiary of the Brussels attack. AUD also up because RBA Gov Stevens did not say anything particularly damaging about the Australian dollar last night. Oil is also nearing a top. Uptrend in AUD/CAD intact

New EUR/GBP and AUD/CAD Orders 03.22.2016

Swing

1. EUR/GBP Reload Orders

Place Order to Buy EUR/GBP 0.7833

Stop 0.7633

2. New AUD/CAD Big Trade Orders

Place Order to Buy AUD/CAD at 0.9928

Stop at 0.9728

Gold is the biggest beneficiary of the Brussels attack. AUD also up because RBA Gov Stevens did not say anything particularly damaging about the Australian dollar last night. Oil is also nearing a top. Uptrend in AUD/CAD intact