AUDUSD – Back to .8000?

AUDUSD – Back to .8000?

Chart Of The Day

What a monster turn of trade in AUDUSD today as the dollar selloff created a massive doji in the pair suggesting that more upside is due. The Aussie initially dove lower on assumption that US rates will almost certainly catch up with Australian rates in the wake of higher than expected inflation. But the anti-dollar flows soon flooded back into the pair and it closing at the highs of the day pointing to a possible run towards .8000.

Today AU Employment data could provide the catalyst that the pair needs to move higher if the data surprises to the upside. Although the market expects no action from RBA, if AU labor market shows further signs of tightening, AU policymakers will have to take the threat of inflation seriously and may change their neutral stance faster than the market believes.

For now, the support in the pair remains at .7850 while .8000 represent serious upside resistance on any upside surprise.

Can AUDUSD Push Past .8000?

Can AUDUSD Push Past .8000?

Chart Of The Day

The Aussie has been on a quite a tear lately picking up nearly 500 points since the middle of December mainly on anti-dollar flows. But as it has approached the key resistance at the 8000 figure the pair has stalled.

Data from Down Under has been good but not great and therefore is unlikely to change RBA’s neutral posture anytime soon. As we noted earlier today, “Australian employment data beat to the upside printing at 34K vs. 9K eyed as labor conditions Down Under continue to show robust growth. Aussie popped on the news but quickly retreated as the .8000 level is proving to be formidable resistance to bulls. Although the job picture in Australia shows steady improvement, wage growth remains subdued and RBA is likely to remain resolutely neutral especially with the currency trading near the .8000 level”

For now, the 8000-8100 corridor remains the key resistance barrier and with triple top keeping a lid on any move higher, but a break about that level would send the shorts scurrying and propel the pair towards the next target at.8500.

NZDJPY – On the way to 80.00?

NZDJPY – On the way to 80.00?

Chart Of The Day

USDJPY has been on a tear rising more than 600 points off the lows set just two weeks ago. The pair is driven higher by market’s unshaken belief that the Fed will hike rates in June and will continue to tighten policy for the rest of the year giving the dollar a key advantage in interest rate differentials.

Meanwhile, the kiwi looks to have found a solid bottom near the 6800 figure as it formed a double bottom support on the daily charts. The New Zealand economy has outperformed expectations over the past several months – so much so – that the RBNZ which meets tomorrow will have a hard time maintaining its dovish slant.

If the central bank decides that policy should shift to neutral and suggests that no further rate cuts are in the offing, the kiwi could see a strong rally towards the .7000 mark. That, in turn, should help lift NZDJPY towards key resistance at the 80.00 figure.

AUD/USD – Will 8000 Cap the Rally?

AUD/USD – Will 8000 Cap the Rally?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals
The Australian dollar took off like a summer colt, bolting through two big figures today as carry trade specs crowded into the pair. The run started in the Asian session after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens refused to take the opportunity to bash the pair, which traders took for a signal that the central bank will not cut rates next week. The rally only accelerated after a very weak US Consumer Sentiment reading that convinced the market that the FOMC will stay put in June and possibly even September. However the market is failing to recognize that by pushing the currency higher it may inadvertently force the RBA to reconsider its neutral stance. The RBA is aiming for AUD/USD to trade around the 7500 level and having now risen more than 5 cents above that level it may decide to surprise the market and cut rates or at least suggest that it may do so at the next meeting in June.

Technicals
The AUD/USD had a very powerful move today but stalled just ahead of key 8025 resistance levels and may now take a pause as it consolidates its gains. A break above the 8050 level opens a run towards the 8100 figure while 7900 now becomes the new support.

Is AUD/USD Headed to 8000?

Is AUD/USD Headed to 8000?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals

The Australian dollar has been on a one way trip to the cellar breaking fresh lows last week especially after the very weak GDP number that reignited concerns that the RBA may have to cut rates later in the year. This week the market will get a look at the confidence numbers and the all important employment data. If the labor numbers show a contraction the concerns about RBA easing are going to become much more intense and the pair could see more liquidation as the interest rate spread between the Aussie and the US yields compresses further. That could start a new round of stop running with the pair eventually targeting 8000 support which it has not seen in more than 4 years.

Technicals

Having made fresh lows last week the pair see no real support until the 8100-8000 level and the only reason that it may pause is because it is now grossly oversold. Only a move above 8500 relieves the downside bias

EUR/GBP – Does 8000 Mark the Top?

EUR/GBP – Does 8000 Mark the Top?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals

The past several weeks have been nothing but a disaster for pound longs as the currency continued to sink under the weight of warning from the BoE that the central bank is likely to keep the interest rate stationary for a considerable period of time. Today the pair came under further selling pressure when several big banks pushed back their forecasts for a rate hike to 2016. But this kind of analysis usually comes at the end rather the beginning of a run and that suggests that the selling reaction on cable may be overdone. Meanwhile the ECB is firmly committed to further accommodation and clearly wants to see euro trade lower. Than suggests that the recent jump to 8000 in EURGBP may have been its last hurrah as the pair is now likely to resume its downward trend.

Technicals

The 8000 level in EUR/GBP represents a triple top and a lower triple top at that suggesting that the pair is now at the top of its range and will need to trade above the 8125 level in order to establish a new bullish bias. Meanwhile the downside target is the lower end of the range at 7800

EUR/GBP – Will 8000 Cap The Bounce?

EUR/GBP – Will 8000 Cap The Bounce?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals

After BoE Chief Mark Carney hinted that the UK central Bank may hike rates sooner than expected cable took off running through the 1.7000 level and breaking the key support of 8000 in EUR/GBP. But many investors remain skeptical that British authorities will actually tighten monetary policy any time soon. One key factor that could expedite their decision would be a rise in inflationary pressures. That is why today’s UK CPI data could prove critical to the near term price action of the EUR/GBP. A higher than expected print could push the pair through the key support at the 7950 level while a cooler reading could signal a near term bottom in the pair and a possible retake of the 8000 figure.

Technicals

Technically the 7950 level remains key support in EUR/GBP and a break there could open a run towards the 7800 figure. On the upside a retake of 8000 could signal a spike bottom and a possible move back to 8100.