Weekly Forex Trading Calendar for January 20, 2020

Weekly Calendar Calls

We have just posted our weekly news trading calendar for the week of Jan 20, 2020. You can download the pdf and excel file by clicking on the Read More Link. These are soft biases on economic data and not trades that we directly trade or track like BK Swing and News.

Excel version of calendar011920

PDF version of calendar011920

Economic Data Calls for December 20, 2019

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (December 20, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!

1. UK GDP (04:30 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but changes will be market moving

2. US Current Account (04:30 ET) No Trade — Improvement in Q3 trade

3. CAD Retail Sales (00:00 ET) Bearish CAD — Potential downside surprise given drop in wholesale sales and weaker labor data

4. US GDP Revisions, Personal Income & Spending (08:30 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but personal spending should be weaker with softer wage growth.

5. US Revisions to University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but can be market moving

Economic Data Calls for June 20, 2019

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (June 20, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ Q1 GDP (18:45 ET) Bearish NZD — Potential downside surprise because even though trade activity stabilized in Q1, retail was very weak

2. Bank of Japan Rate Decision (00:00 ET) No Trade — No changes expected from BoJ but could be dovish like other central banks

3. UK Retail Sales (04:30 ET) Bullish GBP — Potential downside surprise as British Retail Consortium reports sharp drop in spending. Wage growth also slowed

4. Bank of England Rate Decision (07:00 ET) No Trade — With Brexit uncertainty, no changes expected from BoE

5. US Current Account Balance & Philadelphia Fed Survey (08:30 ET) Bearish USD — Potential weakness given sharp drop in Empire State

Economic Data Calls for March 20, 2019

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (March 20, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ Current Account Balance (17:45 ET) Bullish NZD – Potential upside surprise given improvement in trade balance in Q4

2. German PPI (03:00 ET) Bullish EUR – Potential upside surprise given sharp rise in wholesale prices

3. UK CPI (05:30 ET) Bullish GBP – Potential upside surprise given rise in BRC shop prices and oil prices

4. FOMC Rate Decisionn (14:00 ET) No Trade – Rate decisions best traded reactively. Dot plot will be key.

Economic Data Calls for Feb 20, 2019

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Feb 20, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ PPI (16:45 ET) Bearish NZD – Potential downside surprise given significantly weaker CPI

2. GE PPI (02:00 ET) Bearish EUR – Potential downside surprise given decline in wholesale prices

3. FOMC Minutes (14:00 ET) Bearish USD – Likely to be dollar negative as Fed minutes reiterate the lack of urgency to raise rates

USD/MXN to 20?

USD/MXN to 20?

Chart Of The Day

USD/MXN to 20?

We don’t usually talk about the Mexican Peso but it is the currency affected the most by the change in election polls and one that we will seriously consider live trading on Tuesday. The following chart shows the strong positive correlation between the U.S. dollar / Mexican Peso currency pair (yellow line) and Real Clear Politics’ 2016 Presidential Poll Average Value for Donald Trump (white line). When Trump’s popularity rises, USD/MXN soars so if the polls remain tight and Trump wins USD/MXN could break 20 easily. From building a wall to scrapping NAFTA, Trump’s policy almost seemed aimed at killing Mexico’s economy. This past week when there was a report that Trump was leading in the polls, USD/MXN jumped 1.75%. On that same day, the dollar index dropped less than 1%. USD/MXN will certainly have the biggest reaction to a Trump victory or defeat.

On a technical basis, the 50-day SMA near 19.00 is support although a clean Clinton victory could take the pair as low as the 200-day SMA near 18.40. A Trump victory on the other hand would send USD/MXN to new record highs above 20.