We have just posted our weekly news trading calendar for the week of March 2, 2020. You can download the pdf and excel file by clicking on the Read More Link. These are soft biases on economic data and not trades that we directly trade or track like BK Swing and News.
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (March 2, 2020) — Good Luck Trading!
1. AU PMI Manufacturing (16:30 ET) Bearish AUD — Likely to be weaker as the manufacturing sector should be hit by virus
2. Q4 NZ Terms of Trade (16:30 ET) Bullish CAD — Likely to be weaker given significantly weaker Q4 trade balance
3. Revisions to EZ PMI Manufacturing (03:55 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but changes will be market moving
4. Revisions to UK PMI Manufacturing (04:30 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but changes will be market moving
5. US ISM Manufacturing (10:00 ET) Bullish USD — Potential upside surprise given rise in Empire State and Philly Fed indices
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (January 2, 2020) — Good Luck Trading!
1. Caixin Chinese PMIs (20:45 ET) No Trade — Chinese data can be very difficult to predict but also very market moving
2. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Revisions (03:55 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but can be very market moving
3. UK Manufacturing PMI Revisions (04:30 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but can be very market moving
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (December 2, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!
1. AU PMI Manufacturing (16:30 ET) Bearish AUD — Potential downside surprise given RBA dovishness and weaker Chinese growth
2. NZ Terms of Trade (16:45 ET) Bearish NZD — Potential downside surprise given significant deterioration in NZ trade
3. German PMI Revisions (03:55 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict and best traded reactively
4. UK PMI Revisions (04:30 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict and best traded reactively
5. US ISM manufacturing (10:00 ET) Bullish USD — Should be stronger as Markit PMIs better but weaker Empire offsets strength in Philly Fed index
We have just posted our weekly news trading calendar for the week of Dec 2, 2019. You can download the pdf and excel file by clicking on the Read More Link. These are soft biases on economic data and not trades that we directly trade or track like BK Swing and News.
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Oct 2, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!
1. US ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET) No Trade — ADP is difficult to predict but can be market moving
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 2, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!
1. AU PMI Manufacturing (18:30 ET) Bearish AUD — Slowdown in China could hurt Australian PMI
2. NZ Current Account (18:45 ET) Bullish USD — Potential upside surprise given improvement in trade
3. EZ PMI Revisions (03:55 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but changes can be market moving
4. UK PMI Manufacturing (04:30 ET) No Trade — Potential upside surprise given mprovement in CBI index
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Aug 1, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!
1. AU PPI and Retail Sales (21:30 ET) Bullish AUD — Potential upside surprise given rise in AU CPI. Retail sales on the other hand could be mixed with stronger monthly numbers and weaker quarterly.
2. EZ PPI and Retail Sales (05:00 ET) Bullish EUR — Potential upside surprise given rise in German CPI and retail sales
3. CAD Trade Balance (08:30 ET) Bearish CAD — Potential downside surprise given drop in IVEY PMI
4. US Non-Farm Payrolls (08:30 ET) No Trade — Non-farm payrolls is very market moving. Job growth is likely to weaken but this report is best traded reactively.
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (July 2, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!
1. RBA Rate Decision (00:30 ET) No Trade — While rate cut is expected guidance is key and a tougher call
2. EZ PPI (05:00 ET) Bearish EUR — Potential downside surprise given lower PPI inn Germany and negative price trend in France
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (May 2, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!
1. EZ PMIs (03:55 ET) No Trade – Revisions are hard to predict but changes will be market moving
2. Bank of England Rate Decision & Quarterly Inflation Report (07:00 ET) No Trade – BoE won’t be happy with continued Brexit uncertainty
*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY
*Trading Biases*
+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD
*Today’s Initial Trades*
Here’s the summary –
1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242
