Economic Data Calls for January 2, 2020

by Kathy Lien Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (January 2, 2020) — Good Luck Trading!

1. Caixin Chinese PMIs (20:45 ET) No Trade — Chinese data can be very difficult to predict but also very market moving

2. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Revisions (03:55 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but can be very market moving

3. UK Manufacturing PMI Revisions (04:30 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but can be very market moving

Economic Data Calls for December 2, 2019

by Kathy Lien Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (December 2, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU PMI Manufacturing (16:30 ET) Bearish AUD — Potential downside surprise given RBA dovishness and weaker Chinese growth

2. NZ Terms of Trade (16:45 ET) Bearish NZD — Potential downside surprise given significant deterioration in NZ trade

3. German PMI Revisions (03:55 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict and best traded reactively

4. UK PMI Revisions (04:30 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict and best traded reactively

5. US ISM manufacturing (10:00 ET) Bullish USD — Should be stronger as Markit PMIs better but weaker Empire offsets strength in Philly Fed index

Weekly Forex Trading Calendar for December 2, 2019

by Kathy Lien Weekly Calendar Calls

We have just posted our weekly news trading calendar for the week of Dec 2, 2019. You can download the pdf and excel file by clicking on the Read More Link. These are soft biases on economic data and not trades that we directly trade or track like BK Swing and News.

PDF version of calendar120219

Excel version of calendar120219.xls

Economic Data Calls for Sept 2, 2019

by Kathy Lien Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 2, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU PMI Manufacturing (18:30 ET) Bearish AUD — Slowdown in China could hurt Australian PMI

2. NZ Current Account (18:45 ET) Bullish USD — Potential upside surprise given improvement in trade

3. EZ PMI Revisions (03:55 ET) No Trade — Revisions are difficult to predict but changes can be market moving

4. UK PMI Manufacturing (04:30 ET) No Trade — Potential upside surprise given mprovement in CBI index

Economic Data Calls for Aug 2, 2019

by Kathy Lien Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Aug 1, 2019) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU PPI and Retail Sales (21:30 ET) Bullish AUD — Potential upside surprise given rise in AU CPI. Retail sales on the other hand could be mixed with stronger monthly numbers and weaker quarterly.

2. EZ PPI and Retail Sales (05:00 ET) Bullish EUR — Potential upside surprise given rise in German CPI and retail sales

3. CAD Trade Balance (08:30 ET) Bearish CAD — Potential downside surprise given drop in IVEY PMI

4. US Non-Farm Payrolls (08:30 ET) No Trade — Non-farm payrolls is very market moving. Job growth is likely to weaken but this report is best traded reactively.

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

2 New Big Trade Orders 04.21.2016

by Kathy Lien Swing

2 New Big Trade Orders

**Since both of these orders involve NZD, if one triggers, cancel the other

GBP/NZD Order

Place Order to Sell GBP/NZD at 2.0710

Stop at 2.0910

NZD/USD Order

Place Order to Buy NZD/USD at 0.6890

Stop at 0.6690

We are finally getting a pullback in the commodity currencies that should give us the opportunity to join the uptrend in NZD. Between the surprise increase in consumer prices and rebound in dairy, the RBNZ has no reason to rush into a rate cut next week. A pullback to 69 cents would be a great place to establish a long entry for a move back to 70 cents. In an environment of extraordinarily low rates, NZ’s 2.25% yield has and will continue to make NZ attractive.

We also like SELLING GBP because data has been terrible. A larger number of people filed for jobless claims in the month of March and more importantly average weekly earnings growth slowed to 1.8% from 2.1% in February. Greater unemployment and slower wage growth is bad news for the U.K. economy and particularly for spending. Retail sales numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow and this slowdown in wage growth combined with the big drop in spending plus shop prices reported by the British Retail Consortium puts the risk to the downside for the report.