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GBP/NZD to 1.84?
GBP/NZD fell hard today – the move wasn’t much of a surprise as sterling was the day’s worst performer and the New Zealand dollar was the best. Cable is weaker because it is once again becoming clear how difficult Brexit negotiations will be – there’s still a lot of contention surrounding the Brexit bill with the UK refusing to pay a balance that could top $100 billion. The two sides are clearly preparing for tough negotiations, which begin formally June 19th. Cable has seen a very strong rally in anticipation of a large Tory win in the UK elections, but PM May’s lead has declined considerably and if she does not win an overwhelming majority her position at the bargaining table may be weakened.” In contrast, NZD is being supported by the recent improvements in data
Technically, GBP/NZD has broken below the 20-day SMA and if it drops below the May low of 1.8563, there’s a bit of support at 1.8515, the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 2015 to 2016 sell-off but ultimately the next stop should be 1.84.