EUR/AUD – Breaking Out to 1.5400?

EUR/AUD – Breaking Out to 1.5400?

by admin Chart Of The Day

One the more interesting developments this week has been the relative strength of the euro against the commodity currencies. And within that complex the EUR/AUD move appears to be the strongest of all.

The Aussie initially received a boost from the neutral RBA statement last night that indicated the central bank has no near term plans to ease, but the reversal of the move suggests that the Aussie rally may be exhausted. In the meantime the euro remains well bid as 1.1200-1.1300 corridor looks to be solid support.

With no major event risk on either the European or the Australian calendar there is little to drive trade in the pair except technical considerations. As long as commodity price continue to drift lower the uptrend in the pair should continue and for now it is a buy on dips trade with 1.5000 as the first level of support.

EUR/AUD – Back to 1.5400?

EUR/AUD – Back to 1.5400?

by admin Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals

Amongst the G-10 the Aussie dollar often stands as a proxy for EM volatility and with violence in Kiev escalating the currency has started to wobble in the 9000-9100 zone. Tonight the market will get a glimpse of China HSBC PMI data which is expected once again to print below the 50 boom/bust line. However if the number is markedly worse at 48 or lower, concerns about the slowdown in China could quickly translate into a big selloff in Aussie. Meanwhile in Europe the market will get the latest flash PMI readings from Europe. Although EZ has been the sick man of the G-10 world, the signs form the region shows some evidence of pick in activity. If the EZ PMIs beat while Chinese PMS miss EUR/AUD could be headed to the 1.5400.

Technicals

Technically a break of the 1.5400 level puts EUR/AUD on a test of the critical 1.5500 region which represents a very large resistance region marked by a distribution triple top. To the downside the pair sees support at 1.5000 as the primary channel remains in place.

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