Fundamentals

Tomorrow is the do or die day for EUR/USD as the market gears up for the important ECB meeting and press conference. Although market players do not anticipate any dramatic announcement tomorrow they are looking for a hint from Mr. Draghi about any possible QE initiatives. The EZ economic situation continues to hover near recession levels with growth slowing markedly over the past few months and the pressure on ECB to ease credit and lower rates is growing by the day. Bond yields in the EZ are now floating at record low levels and that dynamic has helped to put further downward pressure on the unit. But EUR/USD has held the key 1.3100 support level for 3 days in a row and that suggests that the pair may be sold out for the time being. If the ECB maintains a relatively neutral tone tomorrow the pair may bounce on a short covering rally and target 1.3200 as the bargain hunters step in.

Technicals

1.3100 remains the key support level for the EUR/USD and a break there opens up a run towards the very important 1.3000 figure which no doubt carries massive optionality against it. A break above 1.3200 could target 1.3250 to fill the gap left open from a few weeks ago.