EURUSD – Can it Recapture 1.2000?

EURUSD – Can it Recapture 1.2000?

Chart Of The Day

After 48 hours of correction, the euro ended the day on the highs once again as it recaptured the 1.1900 level. Not even jawboning by the ECB could keep the single currency down for long. Yet the strength today wasn’t really a function of euro buyers, but dollar sellers as the market went once again to hating the greenback.

Despite relatively decent data, traders continue to doubt Fed’s intention to hike rates by year end. Today’s lackluster PCE data which showed no inflation whatsoever did little to dispell that negative sentiment and if tomorrow’s NFP’s miss its mark the pile on against the buck will only get deeper which means that EURUSD has a decent chance of climbing the 1.2000 level once again

Does USD/JPY Have What it Takes to Make 120.00?

Does USD/JPY Have What it Takes to Make 120.00?

Chart Of The Day

Since the Trump win in November no currency pair has been stronger than USD/JPY which has rallied more than 1800 points since the lows 8 weeks ago. The run higher has been driven by the parabolic move in US rates and now the move higher still will be driven by US data.

To that end today’s ISM Manufacturing numbers were encouraging, but the key releases will be ISM Non-Manufacturing on Thursday and US NFPs on Friday, If the data shows that US economy continues to expand at a steady rate then there is a very real possibility that USD/JPY could hit 120.00 by end of the week. If on the other hand the numbers miss the correction could be very swift and 115.00 will quickly come into view.

GBPUSD – Will 1.2000 Hold?

GBPUSD – Will 1.2000 Hold?

Chart Of The Day

It’s been another relentless day of selling in the pound as the threat of Brexit continues to weigh over the unit like the sword of Damocles. The pair has now sliced through the 1.2300, 1.2200 and 1.2100 figures as it approaches the key 1.2000 support from the spike lows set last week.

The econ calendar this week is light, but the pair continues to ignore fundamental data and moves on headlines out of UK. The latest threat was an internal governmental report that suggested UK economy could collapse by 9.5% in the wake of Brexit trigger next year.

Still, the pair is now so grossly oversold that it is prime for a massive short covering rally that could be triggered by anything as benign as headline stating that PM May is willing to compromise on the immigration issue. For now, the 1.2000 level is the key support while 1.2450 is a massive overhead resistance that is likely to stay in place unless the dynamics of the story change markedly.

USD/CAD – Is 1.2000 in View?

USD/CAD – Is 1.2000 in View?

Chart Of The Day

After a Decent rebound USDCAD may be heading lower once again as oil prices begin to move above the $60/bbl mark. Today’s surprising drawdown in the API build which pushed crude higher by a buck may be signaling that supply constraints are finally hitting the market as geopolitical tensions take out capacity in the Middle East.

That’s all good news for Saudi Arabia of the North as the petro chemical complex accounts for more than 25% of Canada’s GDP. Tomorrow’s CPI data and Retail Sales numbers could only fuel a further rally if they beat market expectations. With the pair looking choppy at the 1.2250 level any break below 1.2150 could open a run at the key 1.2000 figure over the next several weeks.

Can USD/JPY Bust Through 120.00?

Can USD/JPY Bust Through 120.00?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals
Tomorrow could be a critical day for the dollar even as the market looks towards Friday’s NFP report. Tomorrow currency traders will get a glimpse at two key releases – the ADP report which will provide a view of the labor situation and then later on the ISM Services release which will show how the biggest part of the US economy is performing. Monday’s ISM Manufacturing surprised to the upside and provided a much needed boost for the buck, but while the ISM report is expected to be just slightly lower than the month prior, there is string chance that it may miss, as the inclement weather in much of the US in February no doubt dampened demand and slowed activity. Any sharp drop in the data could delay any action by the Fed from June to September and push USD/JPY back below the 118.00 mark markets adjust their expectations. That is why tomorrow’s data could be so critical as another failure at the 120.00 level could signal a deeper correction ahead.

Techicals
Technically USD/JPY continues to travel the path of volatility compression as it makes a series of higher lows and lower highs that signal a breakout one way or the other. A move above 120.00 opens the way for a run through 121.00 while a break below 118.00 could put it on a path to test the 116.00 double bottom.

Can USD/JPY Take Out 120.00?

Can USD/JPY Take Out 120.00?

Chart Of The Day

Fundametals
Today’s hotter than expected CPI data and strongest wage growth since 2008, put a relentless bid into the dollar today reversing its weakness of yesterday as traders once again began to price in the prospect of possible June rate hike. USD/JPY which just yesterday looked like it was going to dive lower, climbed steadily throughout the day and ended up on the day’s highs as markets once again turned bullish on dollars. Tomorrow this rally could extend further if the US GDP data surprises to the upside. The market is expecting the number to print at 2.1% versus 2.6% the quarter prior but the data shows a 2.5% growth rate it would only add to the pressure for Fed to begin normalization and would easily push USD/JPY back through the 120.00 figure.

Technicals
Technically USD/JPY continues to make higher lows which is bullish, but it is also constrained by lower highs on the upside which means that a break and hold above the 120.00 mark will be crucial to reestablishing the upward trend