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*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
Short covering flows are strong this morning with most of the major currencies trading higher against the U.S. dollar. Thanks to the much better than expected Australian trade balance and recent tax cuts by the Chinese, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are the best performers. GBP is not far behind as UK Brexit negotiator Raab’s November 21st target for a deal inspires Brexit optimism. The sentiment is so strong that it allowed sterling traders to overlook a weaker UK manufacturing PMI report. Today is an important day for the British pound with a Bank of England monetary policy announcement and Quarterly Inflation Report scheduled for release. No changes are expected from the central bank but adjustments in economic their projections, how MPC members voted and the tone of Governor Carney’s press conference will have a significant impact on GBP. With the currency in short covering mode, a positive outlook should have a more significant impact on sterling than a negative one. Yields are up across the board which should be good for USD/JPY and the yen crosses. Dow futures are also pointing to another positive open for stocks. Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release on Friday so the ISM report and jobless claims will be particularly important. The JPY and CAD are the primary underperformers and we expect this dynamic to continue. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.14 and while its not clear whether this level will break we are inclined to believe that the pair will test this level.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-USD (except for USDJPY)
+EUR, +AUD, +NZD
-USD, -JPY, -CAD
mildly +CHF, +GBP
*Today’s Initial Trades*
Here’s the summary –
1. Buy USDJPY at 112.96, stop at 112.68, Target 113.24
2. Sell CHFJPY at 112.53, Stop at 112.81, Target 112.25
3. Buy EURCAD at 1.4907, Stop at 1.4879, Target 1.4835
4. Buy EURJPY at 128.46, Stop at 128.18, Target 128.74