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*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as the profit taking on long U.S. dollar positions continue. Another way to look at it is short covering on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD positions. The euro shot higher today on the back of stronger PMIs but the rally is fading into the NY session as Germany’s political risks and the ECB’s dovishness hangs over the currency. The Bank of England’s hawkishness took GBP/USD through 1.33. Like EUR/USD the pair is off its highs but unlike euro its doing a much better job of holding onto its gains. The best performing currencies this morning are the Australian and New Zealand dollars but there’s no specific explanation for these moves outside of short covering and anti-dollar flows. The big focus today is on the Canadian dollar. Not only will retail sales and consumer prices be released, but there’s also an OPEC meeting. There’s a growing chance of a formal hike but thats not certain as OPEC officials say this meeting is focused on reviewing fundamentals. Either way, we could see big swings in the loonie today and if data is strong, it could create a top in USD/CAD.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-USD, -CHF, -EUR, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD but beware of data
*Today’s Initial Trades*
Here’s the summary --
1. Buy NZDJPY at 76.01, Stop at 75.34, Target 76.29
2. Sell EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8788, Target .8732
3. Buy USDCHF at .9900, Stop at .9872, Target .9928
4. Buy USDJPY at 110.18, Stop at 109.90, Target 110.46
Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT