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2 New Big Trade Orders
**Since both of these orders involve NZD, if one triggers, cancel the other
Place Order to Sell GBP/NZD at 2.0710
Stop at 2.0910
Place Order to Buy NZD/USD at 0.6890
Stop at 0.6690
We are finally getting a pullback in the commodity currencies that should give us the opportunity to join the uptrend in NZD. Between the surprise increase in consumer prices and rebound in dairy, the RBNZ has no reason to rush into a rate cut next week. A pullback to 69 cents would be a great place to establish a long entry for a move back to 70 cents. In an environment of extraordinarily low rates, NZ’s 2.25% yield has and will continue to make NZ attractive.
We also like SELLING GBP because data has been terrible. A larger number of people filed for jobless claims in the month of March and more importantly average weekly earnings growth slowed to 1.8% from 2.1% in February. Greater unemployment and slower wage growth is bad news for the U.K. economy and particularly for spending. Retail sales numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow and this slowdown in wage growth combined with the big drop in spending plus shop prices reported by the British Retail Consortium puts the risk to the downside for the report.
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (April 21, 2016) — Good Luck Trading!
1. UK Retail Sales (04:30 GMT NY Time) -- Bearish GBP -- Potential downside surprise given big drop in BRC retail sales and decline in shop prices
2. ECB Rate Decision (07:45 GMT NY Time) -- No Trade -- We do not trade rate decisions
3. US Philadelphia Fed Index (08:30 GMT NY Time) -- Bullish USD -- Potential upside surprise given jump in Empire State survey