BK Big Trade EUR/USD +65

BK EUR/USD Short – Looks like its finding support her 1.0845. We are going to close the trade here at 1.0845 for +65 and revisit at a higher level

BK – EUR/USD Big Trade First Entry at 1.0910 TRIGGERED

BK EUR/USD Big Trade – New Sell Orders

The Trade:

SELL EURUSD

Place Order to Sell 1 Lot EUR/USD at 1.0910

Pace Order to Sell 1 More Lot at 1.1127

Stop at 1.1235

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

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Still Selling EUR/USD

EUR/USD has been on a wild ride since we first initiated our short position. It broke above 1.10 on a few occasions but its failure to close above this key level indicates that the downtrend remains intact. According to the latest CFTC data, EUR/USD short positions hit record levels last week – this indicates that traders added to their positions, selling all the way up to 1.1050.

Quantitative Easing from the European Central Bank and tightening by the Federal Reserve this year provides the overriding theme for our short euro and long dollar trade. This will be the long term driver of EUR/USD weakness. In the short term however, there are a few things that could revive the downtrend:

1. Greece – Germany is still not satisfied with Greek reforms. This morning, a senior official from the Finance Ministry said that quality is key and until a more comprehensive plan is submitted additional financial aid will not be provided. There is talk that the Eurogroup could hold a meeting this week to discuss Greece and the headlines could add pressure on the currency because Greece is no closer to enacting sustainable reforms today than they were 2 months ago.

2. ECB Minutes – On Thursday, the ECB will release the minutes from their March 4-5 monetary policy meeting. If you recall, EUR/USD fell to 11.5 year lows after the March meeting when the central bank said they would start buying bonds with negative interest rates on the Monday that followed. Chances are the minutes will be dovish.

3. Portfolio Outflows – ECB QE has and should continue to lead to portfolio rebalancing and outflows

4. Expectations for Weaker German Data – While this morning’s confidence numbers surprised to the upside, we believe that Tuesday’s retail sales and labor market reports from Germany will hurt the euro. There was a major drop in the retail PMI index and slower job growth in the manufacturing and service sectors.

5. More Fed Talk – There are also a number of Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak this week and most likely they will all remind us that rates will rise in 2015. The dollar may finally be reacting to this clear and consistent message.

The only wildcard is Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The slowdown in U.S. data in March points to the possibility of weaker job growth but what the market really cares about is average hourly earnings and the rise in personal income points to a stronger number.

While it may be tempting to sell euros at 1.08 we are in this trade for the long haul and prefer to wait for a bounce to 1.0910.

EURUSD033015

The Trade:

SELL EURUSD

Place Order to Sell 1 Lot EUR/USD at 1.0910

Pace Order to Sell 1 More Lot at 1.1127

Stop at 1.1235

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

Swing

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