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7 Reasons Why Trump Could Win the Election
7 Reasons Why Trump Could Win the Election
At present Joe Biden appears to be comfortably leading in the polls but everyone is convinced that the real race is a toss-up. Donald Trump surprised pundits in 2016 by squeaking past Hillary Clinton and he may do it again in 2020. Here are seven reasons why Trump could win the election.
1. Stock Market Rallies
Wall Street is not Main Street and the gargantuan profits of a few high-tech corporations do not make for a healthy economy, but none of that may matter. For the past four years, the President has successfully conflated the stock market and the economy to the point where even the regular Joe Six Pack who has never owned stock in his life is convinced that a rise in the Dow means that the US economy is doing well.
Trump’s rise from the political ashes of the COVID catastrophe has much more to do with the V-shaped recovery in equities than his handling of the virus or the economy. That’s why team Trump’s key priority is to make sure that market averages hover near record highs which will go a long way towards helping his re-election bid.
2. Massive Jump in October payrolls.
The very last employment report before the election comes out on November 2nd. Voters, just like investors are subject to the recency bias. Their assessment of the current situation is very often based on literally the last thing they see or hear. A very strong report could tip the last-minute undecideds towards Trump. Voters already believe by a significant margin that Republicans are better at managing the economy so a strong rebound in labor data may be the final catalyst to convince the undecideds to flip the lever for Trump.
3. Riots in the Street.
Although massive summer demonstrations have subsided the simmering feelings of injustice persist, especially when it comes to race relations. The George Floyd protests sparked national as well as global outrage but also brought anarchy and looting to several urban areas. While only a tiny fraction of the protestors were violent the President has managed to successfully exploit the issue by making it appear that ANTIFA is a well-armed sinister organization on par with Al Qaeda rather than a ragtag bunch of misfits with a few gas canisters and pickaxes.
The law and order message, as hackneyed as it is, resonates incredibly well with the middle-class suburbanites that are fearful of seeing their property values decline as a result of social unrest. That’s why if Trump can bait demonstrators into a violent confrontation the voter’s first instinct would be to look for a leader who can protect their homes and their safety rather than one who can heal the divisions tilting the odds to Trump.
4. Early Vaccine
The rush for a COVID vaccine has been one of the biggest scientific projects in recent years. At present more than 40 companies are working on a product to bring to market. Typically a new vaccine takes years of development as manufacturers seek to achieve both safety and efficacy.
This process is now being compressed into months or even weeks. Clearly, safety concerns will be paramount, and already Governor Cuomo of New York has expressed doubts about the safety of any vaccine coming out of the CDC, going so far as to say that scientists within his state will review any federally recommended product. Still, a vaccine before the election, irrespective as to whether it will actually offer protection from the virus, would be a PR coup for Trump who could take credit for expediting the process by years.
5. Florida, Florida, Florida
Make all the Florida Man jokes you want but the Sunshine State has become a microcosm of America the nation. From the conservative Bible Belt of central Florida to the multi-ethnic urban and cosmopolitan Gold Coast to the decidedly moderate suburbs of Jacksonville and Tallahassee the state represents the best and the worst of America with all its grandeur and all the neurosis. Since the start of the 21st century, Florida has been a political bellwether not only because its population has been an uncanny representation of America as a whole but also because its 29 delegates could mean the difference between winning and losing the Electoral College.
Trump has made Florida a key area of support. He visits the state nearly every other week and stays at his resort at Mar Largo. He also enjoys the support of the state’s Republican governor Ron DeSantis who like prior Republican governors will no doubt do anything he can to make sure that Florida stays R in 2020.
6. Mail-in Ballot Conflict
Mail-in voting, a seemingly nonpartisan process that has functioned for decades without any problems has suddenly become a massive flashpoint in this election. President Trump has persistently raised doubts about the validity of the mail-in ballot process despite the fact that the whole state of Colorado has been voting by mail for years. Despite the fact that the President himself will vote by absentee ballot which is in fact a mail-in ballot. Regardless of the hypocrisy and the shameless vote suppression, Trump’s gambit may work.
Twice as many Democrats as Republicans are expected to vote by mail leading to a myriad of possible problems that may be impossible to correct on Election Day. First and foremost Trump may be the beneficiary of the “Red Mirage” as he will likely show an overwhelming early lead on November 6 when the in-person votes are counted first. He may at that point simply unilaterally announce his victory which in turn would put the Biden camp into an unenviable position of trying to prove the impossible without the benefit of an accurate count.
Meanwhile, the balloting process continues to be deliberately confusing. In a key battleground state of Pennsylvania, voters have been warned to put their ballots into special secrecy envelopes in order to make sure they are valid. Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that “naked ballots” placed in plain envelopes will not be counted leading to a possible invalidation of 100,000 votes. With voter suppression methods like these all across the US landscape, Trump could lose the popular vote by 10 million people and still win.
7. Trump Refuses to Leave Supreme Court confirms
The final reason is perhaps the most probable of all. Trump has repeatedly stated that he would only accept results that show him winning the Presidency. He could therefore refuse to acknowledge any Biden lead that could come from mail-in ballots and sue to have the election count suspended by the Supreme Court. If Trump could get Amy Coney Barrett seated on the Supreme Court before Election day he would have an ironclad judicial majority that would rubber-stamp his every move and at that point, the voting process will mean very little and the judicial process will control everything.