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7 Reasons Why Biden Could Win the Election
7 Reasons Why Biden Could Win the Election
Joe Biden is no one’s idea of an exciting candidate but is precisely his blandness after four years of chaos of Trump that could finally land him in the White House at the ripe young age of 78. At present Joe Biden appears to be comfortably leading in the polls, but everyone is convinced that the real race is a toss-up. Here are seven reasons why Biden could win the election.
1. October Stock Market Crash
October is not kind to the markets. The Panic of 1907, Black Tuesday of 1929 and Black Monday of 1987 all occurred in October crashing the markets for seemingly no fundamental reason. The October effect is much more of a psychological phenomena rather than an actuarial effect, so you really cannot lay odds on stocks crashing this year. Still there are eerie similarities between 1987 and 2020 with the market’s seemingly indomitable rally sending stocks to record highs now just like in 1987. It is precisely because stocks are so overvalued that they are vulnerable to the possibility of a vicious slide.
There is no doubt that the Trump administration will do everything in their power to respond, but crashes have psychology of their own and panic could overwhelm the markets creating what’s known as the cascade effect.
A stock market panic would be the single worst thing that could happen to the Trump Presidency weeks before the election. Trump’s whole political persona is built on the virility of the stock market rally therefore a sharp selloff will not only be seen as a weakness in stocks but also impotency of the Presidency and could be the single greatest catalyst to tip the odds in Joe Biden’s favor.
2. Blue Supporters Turn Out for Early Voting
Inundated by all the horror stories in the press about the possible pitfalls of voting by mail, many Blue supporters may be choosing to vote early changing the 2020 Election process from one that typically occurs on a single day into a month long affair. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many Biden supporters may be choosing to take advantage of early voting in their states avoiding the risk of COVID and the possibility of having their mail in ballot not counted. If the early voting surge continues to build Biden could be coming into Election day with a significant lead which could provide enough of a cushion for him to overcome the various voter suppression tactics Trump puts in his way
3. Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee Turn Blue
We’ve already discussed Florida in our other article and frankly the prospects of a blue wave in the Sunshine state remain dubious given the obstacles Democrats face. However one of the more interesting demographic shifts of the past few years could yield surprising results in North Carolina and Tennessee. While the exodus from the Northeast to the South has been a multi decade phenomenon what few analysts understand is that this wave of new immigrants from the North tends to be young and well educated – a cohort that overwhelmingly votes Blue. If Biden with his centrist blandness could appeal to the suburbanite vote and the new millennial urban core in the “New South” he could tilt North Carolina and Tennessee blue for the first time in years and radically flip the electoral map in Biden’s favor.
4. Suburban Women Turn 20% to Biden Men Only 10% to Trump
The story of Presidential elections has really been the story of the gender gap. Over the past 40 years women have been 8% more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate than men. Election 2020 promises take this trend to an extreme. According to a recent PBS Marist poll, “Trump’s disapproval rating among suburban women at 66 percent, with 58 percent saying they “strongly” disapproved of the job he’s doing.”
Those numbers are only likely to deteriorate with the presumed nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court which would pose an existential threat to women’s reproductive rights by making abortion illegal – a positions that 90% of the country opposes.
Indeed the key to the whole election may rest in Joe Biden being able to win the majority of college educated suburban white women while at the same time peeling away some of Trump’s support from working class white men without a college degree.
Biden’s own working class roots should resonate far better with the male cohort than Hillary Clinton’s limousine liberal persona did in 2016 while his basic decency and sense of tolerance should attract cadres of suburban Republican women who are repulsed by Trump’s authoritarian tactics. That shift could be the determining story Election 2020.
5. Biden Wins the Debates
Debates rarely win elections but they can be key turning points either adding or subtracting momentum. President Obama’s famous comeback in the last debate sealed his win against Mitt Romney, while Hillary Clinton failed to put away Donald Trump by not being aggressive enough in 2016.
We have joked that the Trump/Biden debate could devolve into a political version of a shuffleboard shouting match at Century Village, but the debates this year are no laughing matter. In the age of COVID where so much of the campaign is virtual this will be one of the few times when the two candidates will be face to face. Given both men’s penchant for malapropisms, misquotes and mental gaffes – it is really anybody’s call as how the debates will pan out.
Still if Biden is able to present a competent contrast to Trump’s hyperbolic style without falling for taunts and traps he may gain much needed gravitas that would give the undecided voter a reason to vote for him. With Trump’s prior antics essentially making him invulnerable to any public sense of outrage – there is literally nothing more he can say or do that would spark a revolt from his avid base – the debate is really Biden’s to win or lose and he needs to combat Trump’s every effort to make him seem senile and weak.
6. Faithless Electors?
This is seemingly a long shot given Supreme Court’s recent ruling in this matter that determined electors must comply with the States voting results rather than vote their conscience, but logistically there is nothing to prevent electors from changing their vote in order to tilt the Electoral College to Biden, especially if he overwhelmingly wins the popular vote.
With Democrats winning the popular vote in 6 out of the last 7 elections yet only enjoying the Presidency for 2 terms the chasm between the popular vote and the Electoral College may be too much to bear this year as America will increasingly look more like BeloRussia rather than the beacon of democracy. Therefore the chance of faithless electors is not negligible.
7. Biden Becomes President… Of Blue States
The possibility of a schism in the American Republic is unfathomable to most Americans even this late into the election season. But if the election results are truly manipulated through wholesale suppression of mail-in votes. If Trump once again wins the electoral college by a few thousand votes while losing the popular vote by five or six million. If he then further rubber stamps his Presidency with a Kangaroo Supreme Court whose political view represent only 30% of the nation there is a very good chance that the vast majority of American’s that oppose the President will simply not accept the results as legitimate. America may arrive at a point where the majority will simply refuse to accept the rule of the radical minority and America could wind up with two competing Presidential authorities, especially if Biden not only refuses to concede the election but gets support from the Blue Governors of some of the nation’s largest states.
Granted this is perhaps the most outlandish scenario yet, but this is 2020 and if learned anything this year it’s that anything is possible.