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USDCAD – Will the Rally Continue?
USDCAD remains well bid at the 1.2600 figure as oil struggles with the $50/bbl handle. The pair appears to have made a major bottom last week and any decline in crude is likely to take it towards the 1.2800 figure.
To that end, tomorrow crude inventory figures could be key. If the number shows a disappointing draw in inventories, it will drag crude below the $47/bbl level and propel USDCAD higher. There are good reasons to suspect that crude number will miss, Seasonally July has represented peak demand for crude and August demand is likely to wane in comparison. Furthermore, although OPEC continues to make noises about capping supply, new production from Lybia will likely offset any OPEC agreements and should keep a lid on the price.
All of this creates the prospect of further gains for USDCAD. Even if the numbers prove bullish, the loonie is unlikely to manage much of a pop as 1.2500 remains solid support in USDCAD.