Today’s Trades 12.06.2018 EURUSD, EURCHF, NZDJPY

by Kathy Lien Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Currencies and equities are trading sharply lower this morning as a convergence of negative news sends risk assets tumbling. The U.S.’ arrest of Huawei’s executive sourS US-China relations and raise concerns about the seriousness of President Trump’s desire to improve the relationship with China. Oil prices are also down more than 2% ahead of the OPEC meeting on talk from Saudi Arabia that no agreement has been made yet to cut production. 10 year Treasury yields are trading below 2.9% and this persistent decline is exacerbating the pressure on USD/JPY. Dow futures are pointing to a sharply lower (-400 point) open and unless today’s economic reports cause a V shaped recovery, risk off will the theme of the day. ADP, Challenger layoffs, jobless claims, non-manufacturing ISM, durable goods and factory orders are scheduled for release. Keep an eye on the headlines too because aside from OPEC, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Poloz, Fed members Quarles, Bostic and Williams are due to speak along with BoE members Broadbent. Given how much the Canadian dollar has fallen and the aggressive reaction to BoC, Governor Poloz’s Economic Progress report at 8:35am will be exceptionally important.s The worst performing currency today is the Australian dollar which was hit hard by Huawei’s developments. Recent data hasn’t been great as a softer than expected trade surplus follows disappointing GDP. AUD also a risk currency that suffers greatly on risk off days. The strongest is the Japanese Yen which should be no surprise but the losses for EUR and GBP are small which tells us that there’s either significant support at 1.13 for EURUSD and 1.27 for GBPUSD or investors are looking at this as an Asia-Pac / US story.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+JPY
-AUD
-CAD
-NZD

Trading Biases

+JPY, +USD (except vs. JPY)
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD
mildly -GBP, +CHF

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCHF at 1.1309, stop at 1.1337, Target 1.1281
2. Sell NZDJPY at 77.36, Stop at 77.64, Target 77.08
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1341, Stop at 1.1369, Target 1.1313

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.17.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are not seeing much consistency in U.S. dollar’s performance this morning as the greenback is trading higher against the European currencies and lower versus the commodity currencies. Sterling is leading the slide as the DUP reiterates their resistance to Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. UK Cabinet Secretary Lidington said its wishful thinking that there could another EU deal so the decision that Parliament has to make is to accept the current deal or vote it down. Investors are worried that these won’t be very palatable options for the many members of the government who struggle with the decision. EUR/USD came close but failed to test 1.13 -- while the single currency remains under pressure and round numbers are often tested in EUR/USD, a very large option expiring today is preventing the pair from breaking through this level. AUD and NZD are surprisingly resilient in the face of mounting pressure from the US on China. Both currencies shrugged off President Trump’s threat of more tariffs and with a much weaker than expected NZ trade balance. The Canadian dollar is flat as oil prices try to stabilize and we see a small bias to the upside during the NY session. As for the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY it could hold onto its gains ahead of the consumer confidence report but the sentiment should lower given the sharp slide in stocks this month.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+CHF
+AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP
+CHF, +JPY, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 128.58, Stop at 128.86, Target 128.30
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5633, Stop at 1.5661, Target 1.5605
3. Sell USDCHF at .9993, Stop at 1.0021, Target .9965
4. Sell GBPCHF at 12731, Stop at 1.2759, Target 1.2703

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Today’s Trades 10.31.2018 USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURGBP, CHFJPY

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its the last day of October and hopefully it won’t be a spooky day for the financial markets. So far it doesn’t seem the case because Dow futures are pointing to a strong open after yesterday’s 400 point increase in equities. Treasury yields are also up and investors are looking forward to healthy ADP and Chicago PMI reports. However the end of the month always poses a risk to the market because it can cause unexpectedly sharp moves. We’ve seen significant declines in major currencies this month in pairs like the EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD which are particularly vulnerable to month end short covering and relief rallies. With that in mind, Eurozone, Australian and New Zealand data remain weak with German retail sales growing less than anticipated, Australian CPI missing expectations, New Zealand building permits and activity falling and Chinese PMIs retreating. AUD and NZD are lower today but they are also showing some resilience in early NY trade. Fundamentally and technically however they should continue to move lower. EUR/USD has broken below 1.1350 and could fall to 1.1300 but only if support at 1.1330 is broken. With the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement and Quarterly Inflation report right around the corner, we expect some short covering in GBP/USD that should put additional pressure on EUR/GBP. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last night which was no surprise but they lowered their inflation outlook which is bearish for JPY. Canadian GDP numbers are also due this morning and slower growth is anticipated.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -NZD
mildly -CAD, +CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 113.16, Stop at 112.88, Target 113.44
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7084, Stop at .7112, Target .7056
3. Sell EURGBP at .8898, Stop at .8926, Target .8870
4. Sell CHFJPY at 112.52, Stop at 112.80, Target 112.24 v

Today’s Trades 10.12.2018 NZDJPY, EURNZD, NZDCAD, EURUSD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After selling off for most of this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Canadian dollar, but that could also change as the morning progresses. The recovery in the greenback is directly tied to the recovery in stocks and the increase in Treasury yields. Asian and European equities rebounded overnight and as of right now, Dow futures are pointing to a strong triple digit open. Market appetite will be the main focus today and not US data because the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is the only major U.S. economic report that is scheduled for release. Last night’s stronger Chinese trade numbers failed to help AUD and NZD which are giving up their gains because the increase was driven entirely by higher exports. Import growth slowed which is negative for Chinese suppliers like Australia and New Zealand. NZD is particularly vulnerable after New Zealand’s Finance Minister endorsed by the slide in NZD by saying he’s “not uncomfortable with the currency level.” The euro has been unable to break 1.16 and is now trading lower despite stronger Eurozone industrial production. USD/CAD wants to break 1.30 and with oil prices rising, that could happen this morning. The strongest currency pair is USD/JPY, which could benefit from a recovery in stocks and GBP is the riskiest as there are reports that Prime Minister May won’t agree to being trapped in a customs union.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-NZD
-AUD
-EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -AUD, -EUR
mildly -GBP, -CHF, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at 73.13, Stop at 73.41, Target 72.85
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.7783, Stop at 1.7755, Target 1.7803
3. Sell NZDCAD at .8475, Stop at .8503, Target .8447
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1583, Stop at 1.1611, Target 1.1554

Today’s Trades 09.25.2018 USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP, USDCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With just over 24 hours to go before the next FOMC meeting, we’re not seeing any clear direction in the FX market. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc but is lower against euro, sterling and the commodity currencies. A rise in German wholesale prices is supporting the EURO while hawkish comments from the BoE’s Vlieghe took GBP/USD back above 1.3150. He said 2 or 3 hikes a year is appropriate. The big story today is the broad based rise in global yields. Interest rates in the US, UK and Germany are up with 10 year Treasury yields rising to their highest level since May. This along with BoJ Governor Kuroda’s comment that the US-Japanese yield spread should drive USD/JPY higher has the pair eye 113. US consumer confidence is the only major piece of US data on the calendar today but NAFTA, Brexit and UN headlines could have a bigger impact on FX trade. With oil prices moving upwards and equities rising, USD/CAD should trade lower. AUD and NZD are trying to bounce and they may but at the end of the day, the RBNZ will keep policy unchanged tonight and the RBA will do the same next week which should cap the gains for both currencies in an environment of rising US rates.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+CAD
+CHF
+GBP
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+CAD, +CHF, +GBP, +EUR
-JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, +USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2958, stop at 1.2986, Target 1.2930
2. Sell USDCHF at .9657, Stop at .9685, Target .9629
3. Sell EURGBP at .8943, Stop at .8971, Target .8915
4. Buy USDJPY at 112.89, Stop at 112.61, Target 113.17

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 09.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, EURNZD

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are looking at a quieter start to the NY session after a big day for currencies and equities. US stock futures are indicating another positive open which means that the rally in USD/JPY could continue. There are no major US economic reports scheduled for release today so risk appetite and trade headlines will determine FX flows. GBP is the weakest currency because UK borrowing was worse than expected in August. Euro is under pressure as well due to softer PMIs. Service sector activity accelerated but manufacturing activity was weak and it drove the overall EZ composite index lower. EUR/usD could fall to 1.1740. Canadian CPI and retail sales are the most important pieces of data on the calendar this morning and with USD/CAD consolidating above 1.2900 for the past 12 hours, we believe that the pair wants to rally after the sharp sell-off this week but of course that all depends on data. Most of the major currencies appear to be due for a pullback but NZD remains one of the strongest currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
mildly -GBP, +NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7285, Stop at .7313, Target .7257
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2916, Stop at 1.2888, Target 1.2944
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.7596, Stop at 1.7624, Target 1.7568
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1764, Stop at 1.1792, Target 1.1736

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 09.19.2018 GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURCAD

by Kathy Lien Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Its a risk on day in FX with all of the majors currencies up from yesterday’s levels. Investors continue to be unfazed by the US-China trade war and based on the strength of the Canadian dollar, they are hopeful that with Canadian foreign minister Freeland back in Washington today, progress can finally be made. The best performing currency is the Australian dollar but the Swiss Franc is not far behind. The Swiss National Bank meets tomorrow and investors are unwinding their long CHF positions on the fear that the central bank will harden their criticism of the currency strength. EUR/CHF hit a 13 month low this month and after riding the reversal for +50 pips in USDCHF for a swing trade, we think there will be further profit taking on long CHF positions during the NY session. Sterling is also up strongly this morning on the back of solid inflation data so +GBPCHF could work too but its high vol. Consumer and producer prices accelerated this month, reinforcing the Bank of England’s optimism. The Japanese Yen is trading lower this morning despite the Bank of Japan’s rosy economic outlook. The BoJ left interest rates unchanged last night and said the economy is expanding moderately despite escalating trade tensions. The main focus today will be on US-Canada trade talks and any other trade related headlines as the US only has housing starts and building permits scheduled for release.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+USD
+CAD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

Trading Biases

+USD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.5138, Stop at 1.5166, Target 1.5110
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.3183, Stop 1.3155, Target 1.3211
3. Buy USDJPY at 112.39, Stop at 112.11, Target 112.67
4. Buy USDCHF at .9675, Stop at .9647 Target .9695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 09.04.2018 EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD, USDJPY

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The summer is finally over and U.S. traders are back! This is a very busy week in the FX market with 2 central bank rate decisions, PMIs and employment reports on the calendar. The greenback is starting the week firmer, rising against all of the major currencies. The New Zealand dollar is leading the slide after terms of trade fell far short of expectations. NZD/USD dropped to a fresh 2 year low overnight while AUD/USD hit a new 1.5 year low. Interestingly enough, the move was not driven by the RBA who left monetary policy unchanged and said they expect the economy to grow above trend in the first half of 2018 with higher inflation and gradual progress in CPI and jobless expected. There was no comment about recent mortgage rate hikes. The meltdown in AUD did not happen until the London open. RBA Governor Lowe speaks at 7:30 NY / 12:30 GMT so there could be some headline risk as a result. Other major currencies have also fallen sharply with GBP pressured by a weaker UK construction PMI. EUR shrugged off stronger producer prices while CAD ignores the 1.7% increase in oil prices. With Treasury yields moving upwards, we expect the greenback to trade higher throughout the North American session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+JPY
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +JPY
-EUR, -GBP
mildly -CAD, -AUD, -NZD
neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 111.42, Stop at 111.14, Target 111.70
2. Sell EURGBP at .9013, Stop at .9041, Target .8985
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1557, Stop at 1.1585, Target 1.1529
4. Sell EURAUD at 1.6100, Stop at 1.6128, Target 1.6072

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.30.2018 CHFJPY, EURUSD, EURGBP

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading firmer this morning against most of the major currencies but the pullback in USD/JPY and stability of USD/CHF tells us that the moves are fueled by profit taking. With that in mind, the greenback could extend its recovery if personal income and personal spending numbers are strong, like we expect. The worst performer this morning is the New Zealand dollar which has fallen sharply on the back of lower building permits and business confidence. We are surprised that AUD isn’t down more given the recent mortgage rate hike by Westpac and last night’s softer private capital expenditures and building approvals report. EUR/USD made a brief attempt above 1.17 at the NY open but the drop in EZ confidence has limited the pair’s recovery. GBP failed to extend yesterday’s rise but is one of the most resilient currencies this morning and should continue to outperform on a relative basis.a The Canadian dollar remains in focus with ongoing trade talks and Canadian GDP scheduled for release this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-NZD
-AUD
-CHF
+CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -NZD, -CHF, -AUD,
mildly +GBP (on relative basis)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2916, Stop at 1.2944, Target 1.2883
2. Sell CHFJPY at 115.01, stop at 115.29, Target 114.73
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1695, Stop at 1.1723, Target 1.1667
4. Sell EURGBP at .8987, Stop at .9015, Target .8959

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.29.2018 AUDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, USDCHF

by Kathy Lien Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar down against the euro and up against sterling. There’s not much to explain these moves because what we’ve seen so far today is more euro positive and sterling negative. To be more specific, Italian yields are down, German yields are up which should support the euro. The UK’s Raab is complaining about EU Brexit negotiator Barnier’s availability -- which is another sign that the talks may not be going well but GBP seems to be ignoring the news. The worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which sold off aggressively after Westpac raised its variable mortgage rates by 14bp. This makes home payments more expensive for consumers which tightens their pocketbooks and dampens the RBA’s ability to raise interest rates. The Canadian dollar is in play today with the possibility of some updates from Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland’s trade talks with the US and USD/CAD is bouncing off its lows in anticipation but we think its going to head lower as the day progresses because Canada has no choice but to deal. Canada’s current account balance is also due for release. Revisions to second quarter US GDP and pending home sales are due from the US today -- we don’t expect either of these reports to have a significant impact on the greenback as investors focus on risk appetite and trade headlines.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -AUD, -CHF, -NZD,
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7305, Stop at .7334, Target .7277
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2893, Stop at 1.2865, Target 1.2921
3. Sold AUDCAD at .9949, Stop at .9476, Target .9420
4. Buy USDCHF at .9768, Stop at. 9740, Target .9796

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT