Top 5 09.26.13

TOP 5 HOT IDEAS

DATE: Thursday Sept 26, 2013

Guidelines for Top 5 Trading:
Proactive –
Enter trade 20 minutes before data, 25 pip stop, 25 pip first target
Reactive – Enter trade 5 minutes after data release, 20 pip stop, 15 pip target

1. USD/SGD – Singapore Industrial Production



FUNDAMENTALS
Singapore Industrial Production expected @ 0.5% (1 AM ET / 5 GMT)
Our View – Neutral
Reason – Neutral
If IP drops by -2% or more = Buy USD/SGD
If IP rises by 1% = Sell USD/SGD

Industrial production numbers from Singapore are scheduled for release tomorrow but the data is difficult to handicap and therefore best traded reactively. If Industrial Production drops by -2% or more USD/SGD can be bought for a move higher. However if industrial production rises 1% or more, representing acceleration in economic activity USD/SGD can be sold. REACTIVE TRADE

TECHNICALS

Bounce to 2600
2400 near term support
Possible test of double bottom

USD/SGD has bounced to 2600 but is likely to find resistance around that level and may come back to test a double bottom at 2400

2. USD/DKK – Denmark Unemployment

FUNDAMENTALS
Unemployment Rate @ (3 AM ET / 7 GMT)
Our View – Neutral
Reason – Neutral
If Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.9% = Buy USD/DKK
If Unemployment Rate Drops to 5.5% = Sell USD/DKK

Unemployment numbers from Denmark are scheduled for release tomorrow and while the data is important, it is difficult to handicap and therefore best traded reactively. If the unemployment rate rises to 5.9%, USD/DKK can be bought for a move higher. However if the unemployment rate drops to 5.5%, USD/DKK can be sold. REACTIVE TRADE

TECHNICALS

Continues to press near lows
5.5000 key support
A break opens test of 5.4000

USD/DKK has so far show a very small bounce off the lows with 5.5000 a key level of support which if broken could lead to fresh lows at 5.4000

3. GBP/USD – UK GDP Final

FUNDAMENTALS
GDP expected @ 0.7% (4:30 AM ET / 8:30 GMT)
Our View – Neutral
Reason – Neutral
If GDP is revised up to 0.9% = Buy GBP/USD
If GDP is revised down to 0.5% = Sell GBP/USD

No revisions are expected to the U.K.’s final GDP numbers. However if they happened to be revised, it should have a meaningful impact on the currency pair especially if the data is good. If GDP is revised up to 0.9% or higher, we expect the GBP/USD to rally. If GDP is revised down to 0.5% or lower, we expect GBP/USD to sell off. REACTIVE TRADE

TECHNICALS

1.6000 holds
1.6100 now in view
1.6150 key to further upside

Cable continues to perform well with 1.6000 level holding as the pair now views 1.6100 but only a break of 1.6150 opens up a run higher.

4. USD/JPY – US GDP Final

FUNDAMENTALS
GDP expected @ 2.6% (8:30 AM ET / 12:30 GMT)
Our View – Neutral
Reason – Neutral
If GDP is revised up to 2.7% = Buy USD/JPY
If GDP is revised down to 2.3% = Sell USD/JPY

U.S. GDP numbers are expected to be revised upwards tomorrow. Unfortunately revisions are difficult to handicap and therefore best traded reactively. If GDP is revised up to 2.7% or higher, we expect USD/JPY to rally. If GDP is revised down to 2.3% or lower, we expect USD/JPY to sell off. REACTIVE TRADE

TECHNICALS

Mild downward bias remains
98.50 tested
98.00 deeper support

USD/JPY maintains its mild downward bias with 98.50 tested today. The pair faces resistance at 99.50 and strong support at 98.00

5. USD/HKD – HK Trade Balance



FUNDAMENTALS
Hong Kong Trade expected @ -39B (4:30 AM ET / 4:30 GMT)
Our View – Neutral
Reason – Neutral
If the Trade deficit is -45B or larger = Buy USD/HKD
If the Trade deficit is -30B or less = Sell USD/HKD

Trade numbers are important for many countries and Hong Kong is no exception. Unfortunately the data is difficult to handicap and therefore best traded reactively in our opinion. If the trade deficit widens to -45B or larger, USD/HKD can be bought for a move higher. If the trade deficit is -30B or less, USD/HKD can be sold. REACTIVE TRADE

TECHNICALS

Tight range remains
7.7540 to the upside
7.7520 to the downside

As a quasi-controlled currency pair USD/HKD has a very tight range of 7.7540 to the upside and 7.7520 to the downside.

USD/JPY maintains its mild downward bias but 98.50 holds for now. The pair faces resistance at 99.50 and strong support at 98.00

*Top 5 Archive Members Only Top 5

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *