Today’s Trades 09.19.2018 GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURCAD

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Its a risk on day in FX with all of the majors currencies up from yesterday’s levels. Investors continue to be unfazed by the US-China trade war and based on the strength of the Canadian dollar, they are hopeful that with Canadian foreign minister Freeland back in Washington today, progress can finally be made. The best performing currency is the Australian dollar but the Swiss Franc is not far behind. The Swiss National Bank meets tomorrow and investors are unwinding their long CHF positions on the fear that the central bank will harden their criticism of the currency strength. EUR/CHF hit a 13 month low this month and after riding the reversal for +50 pips in USDCHF for a swing trade, we think there will be further profit taking on long CHF positions during the NY session. Sterling is also up strongly this morning on the back of solid inflation data so +GBPCHF could work too but its high vol. Consumer and producer prices accelerated this month, reinforcing the Bank of England’s optimism. The Japanese Yen is trading lower this morning despite the Bank of Japan’s rosy economic outlook. The BoJ left interest rates unchanged last night and said the economy is expanding moderately despite escalating trade tensions. The main focus today will be on US-Canada trade talks and any other trade related headlines as the US only has housing starts and building permits scheduled for release.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+USD
+CAD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

Trading Biases

+USD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.5138, Stop at 1.5166, Target 1.5110
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.3183, Stop 1.3155, Target 1.3211
3. Buy USDJPY at 112.39, Stop at 112.11, Target 112.67
4. Buy USDCHF at .9675, Stop at .9647 Target .9695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.29.2018 AUDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar down against the euro and up against sterling. There’s not much to explain these moves because what we’ve seen so far today is more euro positive and sterling negative. To be more specific, Italian yields are down, German yields are up which should support the euro. The UK’s Raab is complaining about EU Brexit negotiator Barnier’s availability -- which is another sign that the talks may not be going well but GBP seems to be ignoring the news. The worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which sold off aggressively after Westpac raised its variable mortgage rates by 14bp. This makes home payments more expensive for consumers which tightens their pocketbooks and dampens the RBA’s ability to raise interest rates. The Canadian dollar is in play today with the possibility of some updates from Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland’s trade talks with the US and USD/CAD is bouncing off its lows in anticipation but we think its going to head lower as the day progresses because Canada has no choice but to deal. Canada’s current account balance is also due for release. Revisions to second quarter US GDP and pending home sales are due from the US today -- we don’t expect either of these reports to have a significant impact on the greenback as investors focus on risk appetite and trade headlines.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -AUD, -CHF, -NZD,
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7305, Stop at .7334, Target .7277
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2893, Stop at 1.2865, Target 1.2921
3. Sold AUDCAD at .9949, Stop at .9476, Target .9420
4. Buy USDCHF at .9768, Stop at. 9740, Target .9796

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.23.2018 EURGBP, EURAUD, USDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading higher this morning ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. We know that Powell and Poloz will be the only central bank leaders attending as Draghi, Carney and Kuroda stay behind. Judging from the price action of USDJPY, investors are cautiously concerned that Powell will talk down the dollar because while USD/JPY is holding onto yesterday’s gains, the greenback is trading lower against all other major currencies. AUD/USD traders may be legitimately satisfied with the political resolution in Australia, but relations between the US and China remain chill as their trade talks end with no real resolution. Although the EURO is trading well today, we are growing increasingly concerned about the currency because Italian bond yields are closing in on their highest level in 4 years. We’re only about 4bp from there. Sterling traded strongly overnight and could experience a further squeeze up to 1.29. Higher oil prices and risk appetite is driving USD/CAD lower with the pair likely to make move down to 1.3050. The New Zealand dollar should follow AUD higher especially after last night’s trade data. The greenback is trading with a softer bias ahead of Powell and the selling pressure could remain in place before the Fed Chair speaks.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-JPY
+GBP
+AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD
+EUR/USD but -EUR vs. other currencies

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.3068, Stop at 1.3096, Target 1.3040
2. Sell EURGBP at .9005, Stop at .9033, Target .8977
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5887, Stop at 1.5915, Target 1.5859
4. Sell USDCHF at .9839, Stop at .9867, Target .9811

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.08.2018 USDCHF, AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly positive open but currencies are still reeling from last night’s sell-off in Asian equities. Chinese stocks dropped more than 1% as ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tension continues to pressure the markets. The Yuan resumed its slide despite mixed Chinese trade data -- the trade surplus declined but exports and imports increased. All of the Japanese Yen crosses are trading lower, led by the decline in USD/JPY. Now that 111 has been broken, the main levels to watch are 110.80 (50-day SMA) and 110.60 (July 26 low). The weakest currency is sterling which fell to a fresh 11 month low today. GBP/USD has not seen a rally in 7 trading days and with no data to support the currency, investors are focused on the growing risk on a no-deal Brexit. The greenback is mixed and a quiet data day means risk on/risk off will drive dollar flows. EUR and AUD are flat but there’s a good chance that we could see some weakness in the NY session. NZD on the other hand should be quiet with the RBNZ rate decision tonight whereas USD/CAD could struggle underneath 1.31.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
Neutral NZD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9955, Stop at .9927, Target .9983
2. Buy EURCAD at 1.5173, Stop at 1.5145, Target 1.5201
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7412, Stop at. 7440, Target .7384
4. Buy CADJPY at 84.85, Stop at 84.57, Target 85.13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.21.2018 USDJPY, USDCHF, EURGBP, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as the profit taking on long U.S. dollar positions continue. Another way to look at it is short covering on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD positions. The euro shot higher today on the back of stronger PMIs but the rally is fading into the NY session as Germany’s political risks and the ECB’s dovishness hangs over the currency. The Bank of England’s hawkishness took GBP/USD through 1.33. Like EUR/USD the pair is off its highs but unlike euro its doing a much better job of holding onto its gains. The best performing currencies this morning are the Australian and New Zealand dollars but there’s no specific explanation for these moves outside of short covering and anti-dollar flows. The big focus today is on the Canadian dollar. Not only will retail sales and consumer prices be released, but there’s also an OPEC meeting. There’s a growing chance of a formal hike but thats not certain as OPEC officials say this meeting is focused on reviewing fundamentals. Either way, we could see big swings in the loonie today and if data is strong, it could create a top in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CHF
-EUR
+GBP

*Trading Biases*
-USD, -CHF, -EUR, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD but beware of data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDJPY at 76.01, Stop at 75.34, Target 76.29
2. Sell EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8788, Target .8732
3. Buy USDCHF at .9900, Stop at .9872, Target .9928
4. Buy USDJPY at 110.18, Stop at 109.90, Target 110.46

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.11.2018 USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The most notable move in the FX markets this morning is in USD/JPY which is testing 110 after having traded as low as 109.25 at the start of the Asia session. There are no U.S. economic reports released today but the dollar is propped by the prospect of a Fed rate hike this week and higher yields. The weakest currency is the Canadian dollar which was hit hard by Trump’s attitude at G7, attack on Trudeau and Canada. Investors are still reeling from Friday’s softer Canadian employment report. The British pound is also under pressure following a series of softer economic reports -- the trade deficit widened and industrial production declined. AUD and NZD are flat but the slide in European currencies and the bid for the USD suggests that these currencies will turn lower during the NY session. The European Central Bank also has a policy meeting this week and while the positive momentum in EUR is fading this morning, we think buyers will swoop ahead of the rate decision.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-GBP
-CAD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -CHF
mildly -AUD and -NZD
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2990, Stop at 1.2962, Target 1.3018
2. Buy USDJPY at 110.01, Stop at 109.73, Target 110.29
3. Buy USDCHF at .9868, Stop at .9840, Target .9896
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.3353, Stop at 1.3381, Target 1.3325

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCHF – More to Go?

USDCHF – More to Go?

Chart Of The Day

One the strongest, yet most ignored trends in the FX market over the past few months has been the one-way rise is USDCHF. Although the pair is overbought registering 13 out of the last 15 up days, it shows no signs of a slowdown as the slow and steady dollar rise continues.

This week the FX market will focus on US inflation data which is expected to bounce, given the sharp rise in gasoline prices. If the numbers meet or beat the forecast, the buck will see more strength as the week progresses. USDCHF now faces resistance at the 1.0050 level, but if it can bust through that ceiling the pair could stretch all the way to 1.0200 before finding sellers again.

Today’s Trades 04.23.2018 – USDCHF, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the new week with a fresh round of gains as the greenback is trading against all of the major currencies. The main catalyst is the 10 year Treasury yield which is hovering just under 3%. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today but last week’s momentum is carrying over to this morning’s trade. The Japanese Yen is the weakest currency followed by the euro which shrugged off upward revisions to EZ PMIs. The commodity currencies are also up across the board although the loonie is the most resilient as oil prices stabilize. Its Monday, so its difficult to say whether there will be continuation after these strong moves but minimally USD/JPY looks like its headed towards 108.50. GBP/USD could test 1.39 but UK yields are up quite a bit this morning as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CHF
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-GBP, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
mildly -EUR, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 82.70, Stop at 82.42, Target 82.98
2. Buy CADJPY at 84.60, Stop at 84.32, Target 84.88
3. Sell USDCHF at .9755, Stop at .9783, Target .9727
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2780, Stop at 1.2808, target 1.2752

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.09.2018 – GBPCHF, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We’re starting the new trading week with stability. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a positive open after selling off sharply on Friday thanks in part to the recovery in Asian and European equities. Treasury yields are also pointing higher, supporting the rally in the greenback. The dollar is up against most of the major currencies with the exception of sterling and the New Zealand dollar. Investors still believe or at least hope that trade tensions between the U.S. and China amounts to nothing more than posturing as no sanctions have gone in effect and so far there hasn’t been further antagonism from China. The euro is under pressure from softer German trade data while the New Zealand dollar is benefitting from AUD/NZD, which has fallen to a 1 year low. Sterling on the other hand is up thanks to stronger house prices and a rise in Gilt yields. Keep an eye on the headlines as geopolitical risks remain the key focus -- we could get a NAFTA deal this week and increased tensions with China.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD,+GBP
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY
mildly -NZD
neutral CAD, AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9606, Stop at .9578, Target .9634
2. Buy USDJPY at 107.13, Stop at 106.85, target 107.41
3. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3545, Stop at 1.3517, Target 1.3573
4. Sell EURNZD at 1.6843, Stop at 1.6871, Target 1.6815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCHF – Walking it Way to .9700?

Chart Of The Day

After bottoming out at .9200 in mid-February the Swissie has declined by 500 pips against the buck -- a stealth rally that has been hardly noticed. Although the franc remains the beneficiary of risk aversion flows, the move into the pair is becoming less frequent as the world adjusts to Trumps mad-dog tweets and realizes that most of them are bark not bite.

On the flip side, any further growth in NFPs should assure yet another rate hike by the Fed further blowing out the spread to +2.75% to the dollar and making the short carry ever more painful.

All of this suggests that barring any blow up in geopolitical risk or massive miss on the economic front, USDCHF should continue to crawl towards the .9700 figure over the near-term horizon.

Today’s Trades 04.04.2018 – EURCAD, AUDJPY, GBPCHF, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

China rolled out $50B in tariffs overnight, sending USD/JPY and risk appetite plunging lower. While the greenback has not fallen across the board (it is up versus GBP, AUD and CAD), it is certainly vulnerable to additional weakness in the NY session as Dow futures, which are down 500 points signal a very ugly open. The U.S. is stirring up the trouble so the greenback will be punished but risk aversion makes it difficult for other currencies to extend their gains as well. This morning’s non-manufacturing ISM and ADP reports will still have an impact on the greenback but at this point, it may be a sideshow to trade tensions. Next to the yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performing currency, rising on the back of AUD/NZD flows. The Australian dollar is down slightly with weaker building approvals offset by stronger retail sales. Australia is also particularly vulnerable to China’s troubles. USD/CAD should rise further as oil prices continue to fall. Euro is up thanks in part to a higher CPI estimate.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CAD
-GBP
+NZD
+JPY
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CAD, -GBP, -AUD
+NZD, +JPY, +CHF
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.5750, Stop at 1.5722, target 1.5778
2. Sell AUDJPY at 81.45, Stop at 81.73, Target 81.17
3. Short GBPCHF at 1.3462, Stop at 1.3490, Target 1.3434
4, Sell USDCHF at .9582, Stop at .9610, Target .9554

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.03.2018 – EURUSD, USDCHF, CHFJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While Monday’s sell-off in U.S. stocks carried over to Asian and European equities, it did not translate into further losses for currencies. USD/JPY is back above 106 and trading higher against the euro and sterling. Stronger than expected UK PMI manufacturing numbers failed to lift GBP and we think this is a sign of weakness rather than strength. The second quarter has begun and many traders are back from their Easter holidays though participation is still less than usual. The most important event risk this week will be Friday’s non-farm payrolls report so investors will be looking at all of the leading indicators ahead of the release. However there are no major U.S. economic reports today so between the positive open suggested by U.S. stock futures and the rise in 10 year Treasury yields, we could see further U.S. dollar strength vs. European currencies. Gains in USD/JPY appear to be capped below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour charts near 106.30 for the time being. The commodity currencies are outperforming with AUD supported by the central bank’s outlook for faster growth in 2018. They still maintain a steady policy stance. New Zealand has a dairy auction later this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+AUD
-EUR
-CHF
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +AUD, +NZD
-EUR, -CHF, -GBP
mildly +CAD
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.2293, Stop at 1.2321, Target 1.2265
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.6000, Stop at 1.6028, Target 1.5972
3. Sell CHFJPY at 111.01, Stop at 111.29, Target 110.73
4. Buy USDCHF at .9567, Stop at .9539, Target .9595

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT