Today’s Trading Plan 07.21.2017 – AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower across the board this morning with Yen and NZD leading the gains. This week’s softer U.S. economic reports and lower yields are finally catching up to the greenback. Its weakness took EURO to fresh 23 month highs, GBP above 1.30 and NZD to new highs. This weakness is likely to continue into next week’s FOMC meeting. Canadian retail sales and consumer prices are scheduled for release this morning -- if they are strong, USD/CAD will hit 1.25.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD,
+EUR, +CAD, CHF, +NZD
neutral AUD, GBP,

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell AUDJPY at market 88.32, Stop at 88.72, Target 88.02

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.20.2017 – NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Thursday is already off to a wild start with the USD rebounding and GBP, AUD giving up post data gains. Reversal is the theme of the day but the fundamentals haven’t changed. The Australian labor market is doing very well, US growth is slowing and the outlook for the UK is mixed. The ECB rate decision is the main focus this morning and we’re not surprised that the currency has been hit by profit taking. As we’ll be live trading ECB starting 8:15 NY Time / 12:15 GMT / 10:15 AEST, we’re only taking one trade this morning in NZD/CAD. New Zealand fundamentals remain weak and Canada’s bright -- so NZD/CAD could see further losses

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-GBP
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD
neutral EUR, CHF, AUD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at 0.9267, Stop at 0.9317, Target 0.9237

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan for 07.19.2017 – AUDCHF and EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It is a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with only AUD and NZD on the move. Both currencies hit new highs as the dollar remains under pressure. Although U.S. rates are up slightly this morning, USD/JPY. With the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank holding monetary policy meetings in the next 24 hours, it could be a consolidate day of FX trade with the EURO giving up some of its exaggerated gains. Yen moves should be limited as no one expects a surprise from the BoJ. Today’s reports on U.S. housing starts and building permits could help the dollar (as recoveries are anticipated) but it won’t reverse the course of the greenback. USD/CAD will be at the beck and whim of oil prices today with inventories on tap.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
+AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -USD,
+AUD, +CAD, +CHF
neutral NZD, GBP, JPY

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Buy AUDCHF at market now 0.7572, Stop at 0.7532, Target 0.75922
2. Sell EURGBP at market now 0.8838, Stop at 0.8878, Target 0.8818

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan for 07.18.2017 – NZDCAD, AUDUSD, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are starting the NY trading the session with the U.S. dollar under heavy selling pressure. President Trump is losing support from members of his own party for the repeal of Obamacare. With 2 more Republican Senators saying they would oppose the repeal, they are now 2 votes short and this failure raises questions about the Trump Administration’s broader economic stimulus strategies. The dollar’s weakness took EUR to 1 year highs above 1.15 (before ECB) and AUD to 2 year highs. The only currency that did not benefit from the dollar ’s decline was GBP which took a hit from softer inflation. Interestingly enough, NZ also reported stagnant price pressures but the currency recovered all of its losses and is trading higher against the greenback. With fiscal troubles haunting the dollar now, we believe that further losses are likely as investors grow more skeptical of the Fed’s hawkishness. With the EUR now up nearly 10% year to date, ECB President Draghi may tone down his hawkishness in fear of stoking a runaway rally in the currency on Thursday.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+AUD
-GBP
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +AUD, +CAD
-USD, -GBP
neutral JPY, NZD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCAD at market now 0.9272, Stop at 0.9322, Target 0.9242
2. Buy AUDUSD at market now 0.7929, Stop at 0.7889, Target 0.7949
3. Place Order to Buy EURGBP at 0.8865, Stop at 0.8815, Target 0.8895
4. Place Order to Sell USDJPY at 112.20, Stop at 112.70, Target 111.90

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.17.2017 – USDJPY, EURGBP, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It should be no surprise to our members that after last week’s disappointing U.S. economic reports, USD/JPY remains under pressure. U.S. rates are down and we continue to believe that USD/JPY will drop to 112. Yet the greenback is trading slightly higher versus the euro, sterling and commodity currencies as investors worry whether about whether Draghi will disappoint in the same way as Yellen. Strong moves last week also invited profit taking which is the main reason why most of the major currency pairs are trading lower. While we think Draghi will suggest a less dovish posture, it is clear that the market doubts that possibility going into the rate decision. Last night’s stronger Chinese data failed to have a lasting impact on the commodity currencies. This morning we have the US Empire State survey and Canadian existing home sales scheduled for release.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+AUD
+EUR
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CHF
-USD, -JPY
mildly -CAD
neutral GBP, NZD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell USDJPY at market now 112.49, Stop at 112.99 Target 112.19
2. Place Order to EUR/GBP at 0.8769, Stop at 0.8709, Target 0.8805
3. Place Order to Sell USD/CHF at 0.9630, Stop at 0.9670, Target 0.9605

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.14.2017 – NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Investors are quietly waiting for the U.S. retail sales report this morning for guidance on where the U.S. dollar should trade next. With U.S. rates down slightly, the greenback is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies. The best performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar which rose to new year to date highs on the back of a widening yield spread over the U.S. dollar. The New Zealand dollar on the other hand failed to participate in the rally as the June PMI report shows ongoing vulnerabilities in the economy. CAD remains firm while EUR and GBP hold onto recent gains. A lot could change with the U.S. retail sales report so we are weary of taking any major positions before this key event.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
-NZD
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CAD, +AUD
-CHF, -NZD
neutral USD, JPY

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell NZDCHF a market now 0.7078, Stop at 0.7128, Target 0.7048

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 07.13.2017 – USDCAD, USDJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies today with the exception of GBP.Its weakness is the most pronounced versus AUD and NZD, which have also benefited from stronger Chinese trade data. Janet Yellen is speaking for a second day today but there should be little in the way of surprises so the flows that happened on Wednesday could carry over to today. Aside from that, this morning’s U.S. economic reports should have limited impact on the U.S. dollar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+CAD
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD,
+CAD, +AUD, +NZD, +JPY, +CHF
mildly -EUR
neutral GBP

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1. Sell USDCAD at market now 1.2727, Stop at 1.2777, Target 1.2697
2. Sell USDJPY at market 113.00, Stop at 113.50, Target 112.70
3. Place Order to Buy EURGBP at 0.8800, Stop at 0.8750, Target 0.8830

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan for 07.12.2017 – EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Today is the day that we have been waiting for all week. Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies to Congress beginning 8:30 AM NY / 12:30 GMT / 10:30 PM AEST and thats followed by the Bank of Canada’s “rate hike” at 10AM NY Time / 14:00 GMT / 12:00AM AEST. The U.S. dollar has been hit hard in overnight trade but we think there could be a relief rally before Yellen speaks and have recommended a small USD/JPY buy trade to take advantage of the move. Our stop is at 113.07 but we could exit the trade prematurely if it drops to 113.20 and we’ll definitely close the trade before 8:30 NY Time.

Stronger than expected job growth and a mild uptick in average weekly earnings ex bonuses helped to lift GBP. We still see the currency as a sell on rallies but the volatility in the market today is too high to take a preemptive trade. With that in mind, we would love to buy EUR/GBP between 0.8870-0.8880.

Although the Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise interest rates, we haven’t seen any additional USD/CAD weakness ahead of the big event. This tells us that the 25bp hike has been fully discounted by the market and the only thing that matters right now is Governor Poloz’s guidance. We’ll be Live Trading beginning at 9:30AM NY Time / 13:30 GMT to cover Yellen and BoC (daily webinar link)

EUR/USD didn’t make it to 1.15 overnight but it should only be a matter of time before the currency pair tests that level. The slide in the USD has driven AUD and NZD higher this morning with the move in AUD supported by stronger consumer confidence.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD
+EUR
-GBP
-NZD

*Trading Biases*
These will could change after Yellen

+USD, +EUR, +CAD, +CHF
-GBP, -NZD
neutral JPY, AUD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

Just one pre-Yellen, rest will be in LIVE Trading

1. Buy EURJPY at market now 130.05, Stop at 129.55, Target 130.35

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

*We have just one trade pre-Yellen, rest will be in LIVE Trading*

Today’s Trading Plan 07.07.2017 – LIVE Trading NFP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Today is non-farm payrolls day so we are NOT initiating any new #2 trades but there’s no doubt that the dollar is strong going into the jobs report. Instead, we’ll be LIVE trading NFP starting 8:15AM NY Time / 12:15 GMT.

With USD/JPY racing to a high of 113.85 overnight, investors have completely forgotten about yesterday’s softer ADP report. This sentiment is shared by bond traders who have taken yields slightly higher this morning. A lot is at stake today -- if non-farm payrolls miss, Yellen’s credibility becomes a serious issue and investors will dump dollars ahead of her semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy next week. If they are strong, USD/JPY should break 114 and hit its 2 month high of 114.37.

After yesterday’s strong move, euro is hanging tight ahead of NFPs. If it dips, we’ll be looking to buy. The worst performing currency this morning is GBP, which was hit hard by softer data. As we said when we laid out our -GBP #1_easy_2follow_trades, data is not confirming the hawkish rhetoric of BoE officials. Further losses are likely, but we’ll have to see how NFPs fare first.

Canada will also be releasing its labor market numbers this morning along with IVEY PMI later in the day -- these numbers will shape expectations for next week’s Bank of Canada meeting.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

neutral USD, CAD ahead of labor data
-GBP
+EUR
+AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*
These will change after US data

+EUR, +AUD, +CHF
-GBP, -NZD, -JPY
neutral USD, CAD

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

All pending orders canceled by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT
All open day trades closed by 4PM NY / 20 GMT