Today’s Trades 08.08.2018 USDCHF, AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly positive open but currencies are still reeling from last night’s sell-off in Asian equities. Chinese stocks dropped more than 1% as ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tension continues to pressure the markets. The Yuan resumed its slide despite mixed Chinese trade data -- the trade surplus declined but exports and imports increased. All of the Japanese Yen crosses are trading lower, led by the decline in USD/JPY. Now that 111 has been broken, the main levels to watch are 110.80 (50-day SMA) and 110.60 (July 26 low). The weakest currency is sterling which fell to a fresh 11 month low today. GBP/USD has not seen a rally in 7 trading days and with no data to support the currency, investors are focused on the growing risk on a no-deal Brexit. The greenback is mixed and a quiet data day means risk on/risk off will drive dollar flows. EUR and AUD are flat but there’s a good chance that we could see some weakness in the NY session. NZD on the other hand should be quiet with the RBNZ rate decision tonight whereas USD/CAD could struggle underneath 1.31.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
Neutral NZD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9955, Stop at .9927, Target .9983
2. Buy EURCAD at 1.5173, Stop at 1.5145, Target 1.5201
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7412, Stop at. 7440, Target .7384
4. Buy CADJPY at 84.85, Stop at 84.57, Target 85.13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.07.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, EURCAD, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning against the U.S. dollar on the back of gains in Chinese equities. Yields are up, stocks are up and oil is moving higher. After last week’s declines, we’re seeing a turn around on Tuesday. The Australian dollar is leading the gains thanks to a neutral bias of the RBA who sees inflation lower this year but stronger next year. Eurozone data was mixed but investors interpreted the data as positive for the currency and has sent the pair towards 1.16. Germany’s trade surplus increased but exports were flat and industrial production declined. Sterling is up thanks to higher house prices. With no U.S. economic reports on today’s calendar, traders should keep an eye on equities and Treasuries for direction. The trend of dollar weakness that we saw in Europe should carry over to North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF
neutral GBP, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDJPY at 111.20, Stop at 111.48, Target 110.92
2. Buy AUDJPY at 82.66, Stop at 82.38, Target .82.94
3. Long EURCAD at 1.5039, Stop at 1.5011, Target 1.5067
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1590, Stop at 1.1562, Target 1.1618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.31.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDCHF, EURAUD

Weekly Calendar Calls

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The Japanese Yen is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning after the Bank of Japan failed to raise interest rates. Although the BoJ said they would allow long term yields to “move upward and downward depending on economic and price developments,” they intend to keep rates near zero. They lowered their inflation forecast and pledged to keep extraordinary policies in place for an “extended period of time,” widening the gap between Fed, BoE and ECB policies. The Yen is the worst performer and the strength that we are seeing in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY should continue in the North American session. Euro in particular in performing well thanks to stronger Eurozone inflation and German retail sales data that allowed investors to shrug off weaker EZ GDP. Sterling is also up but GBP/USD is struggling to break above the 20-day SMA near 1.3160. AUD is outperforming NZD as the larger increase in AU building contrasts with the drop in NZ business confidence. The US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with US personal income, spending, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence numbers scheduled for release alongside CAD GDP. The greenback is rising despite a healthy drop in Treasury yields, but the weakness may be limited to pairs like EUR/USD as BoJ could keeps USD/JPY bid.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-JPY
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-JPY, -NZD, -AUD
-USD but +USDJPY
mildly +CAD, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1726 , Stop at 1.1699, Target 1.1755
2. Buy EURAUD at 1.5908, Stop at 1.5780, Target 1.5836
3. Sell NZDCHF at .6733, Stop at .6761, Target .6705
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.53, stop at 111.25, Target 111.81

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.27.2018 CADJPY and NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its the end of the week and the U.S. dollar is trading firmly ahead of this morning’s second quarter US GDP report. GDP growth is expected to have accelerated significantly thanks to strong retail sales and trade activity. But investors are worried that the lofty 4.2% forecast will be hard to meet, hence the hesitant rally in the greenback. The weakest currency is the Swiss Franc followed by the Australian dollar. There was no news from Switzerland but Australia reported softer PPI. Global yields are flat and stocks are experiencing minor gains. The New Zealand dollar is under pressure following softer consumer confidence numbers and we believe NZD will underperform during the North American session. The Canadian dollar on the other hand could outperform as investors hope for a NAFTA deal. We hope to close most of trades before the 8:30AM GDP report as the outcome could have a material impact on currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD
-NZD
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -JPY, -CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought CADJPY at 85.08, Stop at 84.80, Target 85.36
2. Sell NZDUSD at .6767, Stop at 6795, Target .6739

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.24.2018 EURNZD, GBPCHF, USDCAD, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

USD/JPY is selling off for the 5th consecutive trading session and this weakness is driving the greenback lower against all of the major currencies. Yesterday’s softer existing home sales report can be blamed but ultimately, it is the trend of softer U.S. data that is encouraging profit taking in the greenback this week. There are no major U.S. economic reports on the calendar until Friday and today’s Market PMI numbers will only have limited impact on the currency. Therefore investors should keep an eye on U.S. yields because its not clear whether the selling will continue. The most important economic report released this morning was Eurozone PMIs but the data failed to help the euro as weaker activity in the service sector was offset by stronger activity in manufacturing. The strongest performing currencies this morning are the Australian dollar and sterling. AUD and NZD benefitting from the rally in the Shanghai Composite index and China’s new policies to support growth while healthier UK CBI data is helping sterling. Looking ahead, we expect the Canadian dollar to trade higher on the back of morning’s rally in oil prices and the U.S. dollar to extend its losses during North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+CAD
+GBP
+NZD
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
Mildly +EUR, +CHF
Neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDUSD at .6798, Stop at.6771, Target .6827
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3152, stop at 1.3180, Target 1.3124
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.7211, Stop at 1.7239, Target 1.7183
4. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3039, Stop at 1.3011, Target 1.3067

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.23.2018 No Day Trades, But Ideas for Swing Trades

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

We have no #2 trades this morning because Mondays are usually reversal and not flow days. Yet I still wanted to share my thoughts --

After selling off aggressively at the start of Asia, the U.S. dollar is off its lows heading into North American trade. Investors were caught wrong footed at the end of last week and when the markets opened on Sunday, dollar selling continued. With that in mind, we are watching yields closely as the early decline in 10 year rates suggests that there may not be much more to USD/JPY’s recovery. This is a big week for euro and while we lean towards EUR weakness, today’s rise in German yields could limit the slide in EUR/USD. None of the major currencies are seeing much action this morning but the Yen crosses are down across the board. We like buying Canadian dollars after Friday’s strong Canadian economic reports and the rise in oil.

Swing trades that I am eyeing include -USDCAD, -EURCAD, -AUDCAD and -EURGBP

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-AUD
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -AUD, -EUR
+CAD, +GBP, +JPY, +CHF
neutral NZD

Today’s Ideas

No Trades

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.20.2018 AUDUSD, CHFJPY, EURAUD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The NY morning starts with a series of damaging trade headlines. President Trump said he’s ready to put tariffs on ALL $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. and the German Chancellor Merkel said the E.U. is ready to retaliate against any U.S. auto tariffs. Trade tensions are escalating and not easing causing the Chinese Yuan to fall further. Yuan weakness has been a big story this week and the ramifications will be significant for the region’s economy. But currencies did not have a big reaction to Trump’s latest threats and that could be because investors are growing numb to his antagonistic attitude. With that in mind, we still believe that AUD and NZD will underperform as a result of these latest comments. U.S. yields are also up today, supporting a rally in the U.S. dollar. European Stocks and Dow futures on the other hand have turned negative following the trade talk. The Canadian dollar will be in focus this morning with retail sales and CPI scheduled for release. The lack of U.S. economic reports means the greenback will be trading on headline risk.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD (pre-data)
+EUR
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD pre-data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7361, Stop at .7389. Target .7333
2. Buy CHFJPY at 112.63, stop aa 112.35, Target 112.91
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.4820, Stop at 1.5792, Target 1.5848
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3250, Stop at 1.3278, Target 1.3222

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.18.2018 EURJPY, NZDCAD, EURGBP, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On Day 2 of his Congressional testimony, investors expect the same sense of optimism. USD/JPY is hovering just under 113 and while another probe above that level seems imminent, we don’t expect a material extension as the second day of his semi-annual testimony is rarely as market moving as the first. However the Beige Book, scheduled for release in the afternoon should reinforce the dollar’s positive bias. Sterling is under the greatest pressure as inflation growth slows on a consumer and producer level. CPI also fell in the Eurozone causing EURUSD to eye a break of 1.16 and GBP/USD teasing a move below 1.30. With oil prices falling further this morning, USD/CAD will try to break 1.3250. Commodity currencies in general are under pressure and we expect this same underperformance today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Short EURJPY at 131.26, stop at 131.54, Target 130.98
2. Buy NZDCAD at 8955, Stop at .8927, Target .8983
3. Buy EURGBP at .8912, Stop at .8884, Target .8940
4. Sell NZDUSD at .6757, Stop at .6785, Target .6729

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.17.2018 EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It will be a big day in the FX market with Fed Chair Jay Powell testifying before Congress at 10AM NY time. From his prepared remarks we know that he’s optimistic about the U.S. economy but worried about trade tensions. The U.S. dollar is holding strong against the Yen ahead of the release and flat against other major currencies with the exception of the New Zealand dollar, which is up 0.63%. NZD soared on the back of stronger inflation data, taking out stops in the process. UK labor data was in line with expectations but slightly weaker than the previous month. Global bond yields are lower this morning, oil is below $70 a barrel and stocks are flat. The recent decline in oil leads us to believe that the loonie is due for a correction. We don’t expect much in the way of moves ahead of Powell’s speech but there could be some relative value plays.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-AUD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR. +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -CAD
Neutral GBP, USD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3145, Stop at 1.3117, Target 1.3173
2. Sell AUDCHF at .7362, Stop at .7390, Target .7334
3. Sell NZDJPY at 76.70, Stop at 76.98, Target 76.42
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1721, Stop at 1.1693, Target 1.1749

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.11.2018 USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Escalating trade tensions has been good and not bad for the U.S. dollar and thats why we’re seeing the currency trade higher across the board this morning after the Trump Administration released a new list of Chinese products that are subject to tariffs. China plans to retaliate and investors area waiting with bated breath for their response. The currency hit the hardest by these tensions is the Australian dollar which dropped below 74 cents despite stronger consumer confidence. NZD is also very weak which should not be a surprise as the economy’s underlying weakness is exacerbated by trade troubles. Although US yields are down today and Dow futures are pointing to a significantly lower open, USDJPY is aiming for its March 111.39 high. Producer prices are scheduled for release this morning and a good number could encourage USD/JPY to test resistance. Euro is one of the most resilient currencies at the start of the NY session thanks to the relative stability of German yields and the 1.17 support level. Aside from trade, the main focus will be the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement. The Canadian dollar is trading lower ahead of the event but the market is pricing in a 97% chance of a hike. This tells us that investors are focusing more on guidance than tightening. Looking ahead, risk appetite will be key. If stocks reverse their losses, so will currencies but if the Dow falls 300 points or more, many currencies will extend their losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-AUD
-NZD
+USD
+EUR

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR
-AUD, -NZD, -CHF
neutral GBP, CAD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8848, Stop at .8820, Target .8876
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7391, Stop at .7419, Target .7363
3. Buy EURNZD at 1.7250, Stop at 1.7222, Target 1.7278
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.22, Stop at 110.94, Target 111.50

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.10.2018 EURCAD, USDJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Investors are buying U.S. dollars this morning on the back of higher U.S. rates and weaker global data. In the Eurozone, the ZEW survey deteriorated in July, causing EUR/USD to finally retreat after last week’s strong rally. We are looking for the pair to test 1.17 but with significant support at that former breakout level, its not clear if there will be a meaningful break. USD/JPY is eyeing its May 111.39 high -- although there are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, we believe this level will be tested with USD/JPY extending its gains to 111.50. Sterling is under pressure from ongoing political troubles in the UK and softer than expected industrial production. While USD/CAD is up, oil prices hit new highs today and that should limit the pair’s gains. We are short EUR/CAD because we still think CAD will outperform its ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision. The worst performing currencies today are the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There’s no specific catalyst for their underperformance outside of regional weakness because business confidence increased in Australia and New Zealand credit card spending picked up in June.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
+CAD
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD,
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -AUD, -JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.1594, Stop at 1.5422, Target 1.5366
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695
3. Sell NZDUSD at .6820, Stop at .6848, Target .6792
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.28, Stop at 111 Target 111.56

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.05.2018 AUDCHF, EURUSD, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning on reports that the US and EU could drop their respective auto tariffs. No formal deal has been announced and there’s no mention by President Trump on twitter so it is too early to tell whether this story has real merit but it is driving risk on flows. However with the U.S. holiday bringing lower liquidity (many traders are off through the weekend) and trade war still a major issue the day before tariffs on China begin, investors remain nervous about retaliatory measures from China. Today’s ADP, Challenger and non-manufacturing ISM reports could also have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The best performing currency this morning is the euro followed by the deeply sold New Zealand dollar. All of the commodity currencies are trying to claw higher this morning. I like CAD in particular because of the continued uptick in oil along with the rise in Canadian bond yields. Sterling on the other hand saw very little benefit from BoE Governor Carney’s positive comments but that should be temporary following yesterday’s strong PMI services data. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates again this year, investors are hopeful that today’s U.S. economic reports will reaffirm the strength of the labor market.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+AUD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD
-JPY, -CHF
+USDJPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCHF at .7331, Stop at .7304, .7360
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1685, stop at 1.1657, Target 1.1713
3. Buy CADJPY at 81.16, Stop at 83.88, Target 84.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT