Today’s Trades 10.16.2017 – EURUSD, EURGBP, CADCHF, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are starting the week with a mixed U.S. dollar that is trading higher against EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF but lower versus the GBP, JPY and NZD. Although we have the Empire State manufacturing survey scheduled for release today, it is a week devoid of any major market moving U.S. economic reports. Instead, Fed speak and geopolitical risks will be key and that’s why USD/JPY is struggling to rise because the uneven U.S. recovery, NK risks and the selection of a Fed chair hang over the currency. The worst performing currency this morning is the Canadian dollar, which has bounced off the 20/50 SMA cross to trade back above 1.25. The euro is under pressure due to Catalonia uncertainty but GBP is powering higher anticipation of positive economic reports this week. We don’t expect an exceptionally volatile NY trading session but we may see continuation on the latest moves.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+GBP
-CAD
+CHF
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -AUD, -NZD
+GBP, +CHF, +CAD, +JPY
mildly +USD,

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7675, Stop at .7705. Target .7655
2. Sell EURGBP at .8872, Stop at .8902, Target .8852
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1802, Stop at 1.1832. Target 1.1782
4. Sell CADCHF at .7782, Stop at .7812, Target .7762

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.13.2017 – EURUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The most important pieces of U.S. data this week are scheduled for release today and the steady to slightly weaker performance for the dollar suggests that investors are worried that retail sales and CPI will not live up to lofty expectations. Or they believe that even if these numbers are strong, it will not alter the odds of a December rate hike which is still nearly 2 months away. With that in mind, U.S. yields are pointing higher before the reports so we still expect a run-up in the greenback ahead of the 8:30am numbers. Meanwhile short covering continues to drive the AUD and NZD as these currencies shrug off mixed Chinese trade data. Sterling has extended its gains while the euro lags behind. The loonie is quiet but should tick up as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+GBP
+AUD
+NZD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -CHF
+GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CAD
mildly +USD, -JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURGBP a .8893, Stop at .8923, Target .8873
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1821, Stop at 1.1851, Target 1.1801
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6546, Stop at 1.6576, Target 1.6526
4. Buy CADCHF at .7824, Stop at .7794, Target .7854

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.12.2017 – NZDUSD, NZDJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of currencies this morning with the European currencies under pressure, the commodity currencies trading strongly and the U.S. dollar mixed as a result. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes were perceived as less hawkish but the odds of a December rate hike did not change, explaining the uneven demand for the greenback. Euro shrugged off stronger industrial production to find resistance below 1.19 as the enthusiasm for Spanish assets diminished. Sterling u-turned after hitting its August high during the Asia trading session. There’s little to explain the strength of AUD and NZD outside of short covering after strong downtrends.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
-CAD
-GBP
mildly -USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF, -NZD, -CAD
mildly -USD
neutral JPY, AUD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell NZDUSD at .7113, Stop at .7143, Target .7083
2. Sell NZDJPY at 79.92, Stop at 80.22, Target 79.72
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2474, Stop at 1.2444, Target 1.2494

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.10.2017 – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDCHF, GBPJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower across the board and this weakness drove EUR/USD beyond 1.18 and GBP/USD above 1.32. However as we start the North American session, both of these currencies are a bit softer yet the decline in U.S. rates should keep these uptrends intact. These currencies are also supported by data with Germany reporting a larger trade balance and the UK reporting faster industrial and manufacturing production growth. The U.S. dollar on the other hand is lower on fresh concerns about North Korea. Apparently NK told Russia they have an intercontinental missile capable of traveling 3000 km which would put it within reach of US territory. The commodity currencies are up across the board on dollar weakness and higher commodity prices. There are no U.S. economic reports on the calendar today but Fed President Kashkari speaks today along with Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Wilkins.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CHF, +CAD
-USD, -AUD, -JPY
mildy -NZD,

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1780, Stop at 1.1750, Target 1.1800
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2515, Stop at 1.2545, Target 1.2495
3. Sold AUDCHF at .7600, Stop at .7630, Target .7580
4. Buy GBPJPY at 148.25, Stop at 147.95, Target 148.45

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.09.2017 – EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With U.S., Canadian and Japanese markets closed today, it should continue to be a quiet trading session. While the U.S. dollar is holding onto its gains versus the Japanese Yen, it is losing ground versus the European and commodity currencies. The only currency on the move today is sterling, which is supported by Prime Minister May’s upcoming Brexit Speech. May is expected to speak around 14:30 GMT and investors are hoping for more details on the UK and EU’s new relationship. Unfortunately we are not as optimistic because in the released copy of her speech, she said the ball is in the EU’s court and this morning, the EU said the ball is entirely in the U.K.’s court. With NFP behind us, we believe that the market will begin to shift its focus to ECB and for this reason we like buying euros versus the dollar and other major currencies. The commodity currencies are quiet and we do not expect big moves today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+NZD
+USDJPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CHF, +USDJPY
-AUD
mildy +NZD, +USD
neutral JPY, CAD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURJPY at 132.25, Stop 131.95, Target 132.45
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1745, Stop 1.1715, Target 1.1765
3. Sell USDCHF at .9781, Stop a .9811, Target .9761

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.02.2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Euro and sterling are trading sharply lower this morning as Catalan’s secession vote threatens the very fabric of the Eurozone. The Spanish government is trying to challenge the vote but with nearly 90% of voters supporting the #catalout, it may be difficult. As Spain faces it worst constitutional crisis in years, EUR/USD has been hit hard and while its bouncing off its lows at the start of the NY session, we could see fresh sellers emerge between 1.1750 and 1.1770. Sterling’s decline can be partially attributed to the weakness of European currencies but the softer UK PMI manufacturing index also casts doubt on the BoE’s hawkishness. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar is up across the board thanks to the troubles in Europe and the rise U.S. yields. The Canadian dollar is lower as oil prices drop -1.7%. AUD and NZD are flat.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF
+USD
mildly +AUD, +NZD
mildly -CAD, -JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURAUD at market now 1.5026, Stop at 1.5056, Target 1.5006
2. Buy USDJPY at 112.80, Stop at 112.50, Target 113.00
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1746, Stop at 1.1776, Target 1.1726

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

100 Trades of Profit

Boris Schlossberg

The other day I stumbled across an amazing YouTube video. Two guys -- both skinny non-athletic nerds challenged themselves to do 100 pushups each day for 30 days straight. The rules did not require them to do 100 pushups consecutively -- just cumulatively -- as long as the total ended up to be 100 at the end of the day.

This was a fascinating experiment. Push-ups require no equipment and can be done anywhere (they did push-ups in parking lots, conference rooms, etc.) Push-ups take very little time and need almost no athletic skill. It is perhaps the simplest human exercise there is.

Their journey was eye-opening. Neither man was in good shape. Neither man was ever an athlete. During their first week of attempts, they could barely do 5 push ups consecutively. One of them failed to achieve the 100 goal until the 7th day of the experiment. Yet,l they persisted.


BK.Trend.09.25-29.2017

Here is the absolutely remarkable thing. After 30 days, both men were visibly stronger and more muscular. Each one had changed his diet to a much more healthy regime and their overall posture and presence was decidedly more confident. All of this was achieved through the lowliest, most humble of exercises simply because they set a modest goal and stuck to the plan.

The hundred push-up experiment made me realize that we can achieve the same type of radical improvement in trading if we adopt their methods. Let’s do a simple experiment. Let’s commit to making 100 profitable trades of 10 pips each over a period of 30 trading days. The only rule is that you must honor your stops (whatever they are). You cannot let losing trades float. The purpose of this experiment to not necessarily make you money (though that would be nice) but to get you to engage with the market in a proper way.

Why do most traders fail? Because they have no defined plan for how they will trade. In fact, most traders quit simply because they hit 3 losing trades in a row. Here is my prediction if you do this experiment. I predict that you will begin to realize what trades work and what trades don’t. I bet you will become a lot more selective in your entries. I predict that you will become a lot less greedy in your exits. I bet you will develop a healthy respect for risk. I bet you will begin to feel joy and then confidence at winning 5 and maybe even 10 trades in a row and will begin to understand how winning is possible.

If two nerdy guys can transform themselves into strong confident young men just by doing 100 pushups each day for a month, then we as traders can certainly improve our skills by focusing on making 100 profitable trades in 30 days. Give it a try and even if you are making 20 losers in a row, keep going. The lesson of the pushup experiment is that success lies in simply trying for a meaningfully long time.

Today’s Trades 09.25.2017 – EURUSD, NZDCAD, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The biggest story in the FX market this morning are the unsatisfactory election results in German and New Zealand. While the incumbent in both countries won, Germany failed to achieve the grand coalition they hoped for and in New Zealand, a coalition government is needed. The political dynamics around the world are shifting as assured victories turn into weak wins. The euro and New Zealand dollars were hit hard as result and appear poised for further losses. USD/JPY is up this morning after Japan announced plans to hold a snap election. However today’s move is not supported by yields which are starting the day lower. There was no news out of the UK but the currency also appears positioned for a deeper short term correction. The Australian and Canadian dollars on the other hand are performing better than its peers and could continue to outperform some of the weaker currencies like EUR and NZD

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
+USD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -NZD, -CHF, -GBP
+USD, AUD,
neutral CAD, JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.1881, Stop at 1.1911, Target 1.1861
2. Sell NZDCAD at market now .8977, Stop at 0.9007, Target 0.8957
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.4928, Stop at 1.4958, Target 1.4908

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8466267406414888962

Today’s Trades 09.30.17 – EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It is FOMC day and the U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies on the back of profit taking. This is the big day for the greenback as the market awaits a major announcement on the balance sheet and a speech from Janet Yellen. We’ll be LIVE TRADING both events with you starting at 1:45PM NY / 17:45 GMT. The UK’s retail sales report was much stronger than expected this morning but the data did not have a lasting impact on the currency, which unwound its gains quickly, backing off its high of 1.3600. The commodity currencies are strong, led by gains in NZD which benefitted from a poll that shows the ruling National Party regaining lead. The euro is hanging out near 1.20 and should trickle higher if profit taking in the dollar continues.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD, +GBP
-USD
neutral CHF, JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.2001, Stop 1.1971, Target 1.2021
2. Sell EURGBP at 0.8867, Stop at 0.8896, Target 0.8847
3. Bought GBPUSD at 1.3534, Stop at 1.3510, Target 1.3554

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8466267406414888962

Today’s Trades 09.15.2017 – USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The market has completely ignored North Korea’s missile launch, focused entirely on the hawkish BoE comments and have driven USD/JPY and GBP/USD sharply higher. These moves are consistent with the sharp rise in U.S. and U.K. yields but as the morning progresses, the focus will shift to US data. Retail sales, industrial production, the Empire State manufacturing index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey are due for release and economists are looking for softer data all around. The overbought GBPUSD and USDJPY could be due for a correction although the former won’t see an excessively steep decline as the move is supported by policy direction. The commodity currencies are strong and could extend their gains before U.S. economic reports.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+AUD
+NZD
+GBP
-USD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +GBP, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD, +CHF

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell USDCAD at market now 1.2161, Stop at 1.2191, Target 1.2141
2. Sell EURGBP at market now 0.8792, Stop at 0.8822, Target .8772
3. Sell USDJPY at market 111.23, Stop at 111.53, Target 111.03

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 09.11.2017 – USDJPY, USDCHF, CADCHF, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With U.S. yields up more than 4bp, the dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning. Investors are relieved that Florida skirted major damage from Hurricane Irma and according to North Korea TV, they may be ready to meet with U.S. officials. As a result, USD/JPY is this morning’s best performing currency. It has been hit hard in the past 2 months and due for a short squeeze. While the Canadian dollar continued to power higher, testing the 1.21 level AUD and NZD are lagging behind. Sterling is also trading firmly ahead of this week’s monetary policy announcement. Last but not least the euro is holding 1.20 but it support looks fleeting.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
+CAD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD
-JPY, -CHF
MILDLY +AUD, +NZD
MLDLY -EUR

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy USDCHF at market now 0.9491, Stop at 0.9461, Target 0.9511
2. Buy CADCHF at market now 0.7843, Stop at 0.7813, Target 0.7863
3. Sell EURGBP at market now 0.9088, Stop at 0.9118, Target 0.9068
4. Back in USDJPY long at 108.52, Stop, 108.22, Target 108.72

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8466267406414888962

Today’s Trades 07.26.2017 – EURAUD, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its FOMC day and the dollar is finally retreating against the Japanese Yen. After yesterday’s Senate vote hysteria and the sharp rise in Treasury rates, yields are down this morning, causing USD/JPY to find resistance below 112. The greenback is steady versus EUR and CAD but the Franc is down strongly on a delayed reaction to SNB Jordan’s comment that the CHF is still significantly overvalued. Slightly stronger GDP growth in Q2 also lifted GBP but the move was limited by the slowdown in year over year growth. Last night’s softer Australian CPI report and comments from RBA Governor Lowe has caused AUD to underperform NZD -- Lowe said “we don’t need to move in lockstep with global peers as steady unemployment rate has allowed us to be patient.” He expects slow wage growth to remain for some time, making it difficult to generate 2.5% CPI. Although Q2 inflation was in line with expectations, higher power prices could push Q3 CPI higher but that would increase business costs. With that in mind, he did not aggressively talk down the currency, opting instead to say that it would be better if A$ is a bit lower, explaining the muted decline int he currency

Don’t forget we’ll be LIVE Trading FOMC starting 1:45PM NY Time / 17:45 GMT / 3:45 AM AEST

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-AUD
+GBP
-CHF
mildly -USD

*Trading Biases*

-AUD, -CHF
+JPY, +CAD, +GBP
mildly -USD, -NZD
mildly +EUR

*Today’s Potential Ideas*

1.Buy EURAUD at market now 1.4702, Stop at 1.4662, Target 1.4732
2. Place Order to Sell USDJPY at 111.77, Stop at 112.27, Target 111.57

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST