Today’s Trades 07.23.2018 No Day Trades, But Ideas for Swing Trades

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

We have no #2 trades this morning because Mondays are usually reversal and not flow days. Yet I still wanted to share my thoughts --

After selling off aggressively at the start of Asia, the U.S. dollar is off its lows heading into North American trade. Investors were caught wrong footed at the end of last week and when the markets opened on Sunday, dollar selling continued. With that in mind, we are watching yields closely as the early decline in 10 year rates suggests that there may not be much more to USD/JPY’s recovery. This is a big week for euro and while we lean towards EUR weakness, today’s rise in German yields could limit the slide in EUR/USD. None of the major currencies are seeing much action this morning but the Yen crosses are down across the board. We like buying Canadian dollars after Friday’s strong Canadian economic reports and the rise in oil.

Swing trades that I am eyeing include -USDCAD, -EURCAD, -AUDCAD and -EURGBP

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-AUD
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -AUD, -EUR
+CAD, +GBP, +JPY, +CHF
neutral NZD

Today’s Ideas

No Trades

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.20.2018 AUDUSD, CHFJPY, EURAUD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The NY morning starts with a series of damaging trade headlines. President Trump said he’s ready to put tariffs on ALL $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. and the German Chancellor Merkel said the E.U. is ready to retaliate against any U.S. auto tariffs. Trade tensions are escalating and not easing causing the Chinese Yuan to fall further. Yuan weakness has been a big story this week and the ramifications will be significant for the region’s economy. But currencies did not have a big reaction to Trump’s latest threats and that could be because investors are growing numb to his antagonistic attitude. With that in mind, we still believe that AUD and NZD will underperform as a result of these latest comments. U.S. yields are also up today, supporting a rally in the U.S. dollar. European Stocks and Dow futures on the other hand have turned negative following the trade talk. The Canadian dollar will be in focus this morning with retail sales and CPI scheduled for release. The lack of U.S. economic reports means the greenback will be trading on headline risk.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD (pre-data)
+EUR
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD pre-data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7361, Stop at .7389. Target .7333
2. Buy CHFJPY at 112.63, stop aa 112.35, Target 112.91
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.4820, Stop at 1.5792, Target 1.5848
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3250, Stop at 1.3278, Target 1.3222

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.18.2018 EURJPY, NZDCAD, EURGBP, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On Day 2 of his Congressional testimony, investors expect the same sense of optimism. USD/JPY is hovering just under 113 and while another probe above that level seems imminent, we don’t expect a material extension as the second day of his semi-annual testimony is rarely as market moving as the first. However the Beige Book, scheduled for release in the afternoon should reinforce the dollar’s positive bias. Sterling is under the greatest pressure as inflation growth slows on a consumer and producer level. CPI also fell in the Eurozone causing EURUSD to eye a break of 1.16 and GBP/USD teasing a move below 1.30. With oil prices falling further this morning, USD/CAD will try to break 1.3250. Commodity currencies in general are under pressure and we expect this same underperformance today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Short EURJPY at 131.26, stop at 131.54, Target 130.98
2. Buy NZDCAD at 8955, Stop at .8927, Target .8983
3. Buy EURGBP at .8912, Stop at .8884, Target .8940
4. Sell NZDUSD at .6757, Stop at .6785, Target .6729

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.17.2018 EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It will be a big day in the FX market with Fed Chair Jay Powell testifying before Congress at 10AM NY time. From his prepared remarks we know that he’s optimistic about the U.S. economy but worried about trade tensions. The U.S. dollar is holding strong against the Yen ahead of the release and flat against other major currencies with the exception of the New Zealand dollar, which is up 0.63%. NZD soared on the back of stronger inflation data, taking out stops in the process. UK labor data was in line with expectations but slightly weaker than the previous month. Global bond yields are lower this morning, oil is below $70 a barrel and stocks are flat. The recent decline in oil leads us to believe that the loonie is due for a correction. We don’t expect much in the way of moves ahead of Powell’s speech but there could be some relative value plays.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-AUD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR. +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -CAD
Neutral GBP, USD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3145, Stop at 1.3117, Target 1.3173
2. Sell AUDCHF at .7362, Stop at .7390, Target .7334
3. Sell NZDJPY at 76.70, Stop at 76.98, Target 76.42
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1721, Stop at 1.1693, Target 1.1749

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.11.2018 USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Escalating trade tensions has been good and not bad for the U.S. dollar and thats why we’re seeing the currency trade higher across the board this morning after the Trump Administration released a new list of Chinese products that are subject to tariffs. China plans to retaliate and investors area waiting with bated breath for their response. The currency hit the hardest by these tensions is the Australian dollar which dropped below 74 cents despite stronger consumer confidence. NZD is also very weak which should not be a surprise as the economy’s underlying weakness is exacerbated by trade troubles. Although US yields are down today and Dow futures are pointing to a significantly lower open, USDJPY is aiming for its March 111.39 high. Producer prices are scheduled for release this morning and a good number could encourage USD/JPY to test resistance. Euro is one of the most resilient currencies at the start of the NY session thanks to the relative stability of German yields and the 1.17 support level. Aside from trade, the main focus will be the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement. The Canadian dollar is trading lower ahead of the event but the market is pricing in a 97% chance of a hike. This tells us that investors are focusing more on guidance than tightening. Looking ahead, risk appetite will be key. If stocks reverse their losses, so will currencies but if the Dow falls 300 points or more, many currencies will extend their losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-AUD
-NZD
+USD
+EUR

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR
-AUD, -NZD, -CHF
neutral GBP, CAD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8848, Stop at .8820, Target .8876
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7391, Stop at .7419, Target .7363
3. Buy EURNZD at 1.7250, Stop at 1.7222, Target 1.7278
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.22, Stop at 110.94, Target 111.50

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.10.2018 EURCAD, USDJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Investors are buying U.S. dollars this morning on the back of higher U.S. rates and weaker global data. In the Eurozone, the ZEW survey deteriorated in July, causing EUR/USD to finally retreat after last week’s strong rally. We are looking for the pair to test 1.17 but with significant support at that former breakout level, its not clear if there will be a meaningful break. USD/JPY is eyeing its May 111.39 high -- although there are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, we believe this level will be tested with USD/JPY extending its gains to 111.50. Sterling is under pressure from ongoing political troubles in the UK and softer than expected industrial production. While USD/CAD is up, oil prices hit new highs today and that should limit the pair’s gains. We are short EUR/CAD because we still think CAD will outperform its ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision. The worst performing currencies today are the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There’s no specific catalyst for their underperformance outside of regional weakness because business confidence increased in Australia and New Zealand credit card spending picked up in June.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
+CAD
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD,
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -AUD, -JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.1594, Stop at 1.5422, Target 1.5366
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695
3. Sell NZDUSD at .6820, Stop at .6848, Target .6792
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.28, Stop at 111 Target 111.56

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.05.2018 AUDCHF, EURUSD, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning on reports that the US and EU could drop their respective auto tariffs. No formal deal has been announced and there’s no mention by President Trump on twitter so it is too early to tell whether this story has real merit but it is driving risk on flows. However with the U.S. holiday bringing lower liquidity (many traders are off through the weekend) and trade war still a major issue the day before tariffs on China begin, investors remain nervous about retaliatory measures from China. Today’s ADP, Challenger and non-manufacturing ISM reports could also have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The best performing currency this morning is the euro followed by the deeply sold New Zealand dollar. All of the commodity currencies are trying to claw higher this morning. I like CAD in particular because of the continued uptick in oil along with the rise in Canadian bond yields. Sterling on the other hand saw very little benefit from BoE Governor Carney’s positive comments but that should be temporary following yesterday’s strong PMI services data. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates again this year, investors are hopeful that today’s U.S. economic reports will reaffirm the strength of the labor market.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+AUD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD
-JPY, -CHF
+USDJPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCHF at .7331, Stop at .7304, .7360
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1685, stop at 1.1657, Target 1.1713
3. Buy CADJPY at 81.16, Stop at 83.88, Target 84.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.28.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, AUDUSD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is consolidating after yesterday’s strong rally. While USD/JPY remains firm at the start of the NY session, the greenback is slipping versus the euro and Canadian dollar. EURO is supported by positive ECB comments and the prospect of stronger German CPI. The recent rise in oil prices makes it difficult for USD/CAD to extend its gains and this morning it is testing the lower bound of its 6 day range. If USD/CAD breaks 1.3250, we should see a quick slide down to 1.3200. The New Zealand dollar is trading at fresh 1 year lows following the RBNZ rate decision. Sterling also hit one year lows despite positive comments from the BoE and higher UK yields. The problem for many of these currencies is risk aversion -- stocks may be flat today but the Chinese Yuan continues its losing streak and the accompanying weakness in Asian stocks makes investors worried about global growth. US GDP revisions are scheduled for release this morning -- we are also nearing the end of the quarter so watch out for rebalancing flows. Given how much the dollar has risen over the past 3 months, quarter end portfolio rebalancing should involve selling of U.S. dollars.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +USDJPY
-JPY, -NZD, -USD
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 127.62, Stop at 127.34, Target 127.90
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3281, Stop at 1.3309, Target 1.3253
3. Sold USDCAD at 1.3284, Stop at 1.3312, Target 1.3256
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7353, Stop at .7325, Target .7381

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.21.2018 USDJPY, USDCHF, EURGBP, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as the profit taking on long U.S. dollar positions continue. Another way to look at it is short covering on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD positions. The euro shot higher today on the back of stronger PMIs but the rally is fading into the NY session as Germany’s political risks and the ECB’s dovishness hangs over the currency. The Bank of England’s hawkishness took GBP/USD through 1.33. Like EUR/USD the pair is off its highs but unlike euro its doing a much better job of holding onto its gains. The best performing currencies this morning are the Australian and New Zealand dollars but there’s no specific explanation for these moves outside of short covering and anti-dollar flows. The big focus today is on the Canadian dollar. Not only will retail sales and consumer prices be released, but there’s also an OPEC meeting. There’s a growing chance of a formal hike but thats not certain as OPEC officials say this meeting is focused on reviewing fundamentals. Either way, we could see big swings in the loonie today and if data is strong, it could create a top in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CHF
-EUR
+GBP

*Trading Biases*
-USD, -CHF, -EUR, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD but beware of data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDJPY at 76.01, Stop at 75.34, Target 76.29
2. Sell EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8788, Target .8732
3. Buy USDCHF at .9900, Stop at .9872, Target .9928
4. Buy USDJPY at 110.18, Stop at 109.90, Target 110.46

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.20.2018 AUDUSD, EURUSD, CHFJPY, AUDNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the U.S. dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning, the moves are relatively modest. Equities have stopped falling and yields are flat but after yesterday’s high anxiety trade, it is still too early to tell if this is the eye of the hurricane or the calm after the storm. The trade war is brewing strong with political risks continuing to haunt currencies. The worst performing currency today is the Swiss Franc followed by the euro and New Zealand dollar. There’s no news for Switzerland but jawboning by ECB member Nowotny who said he sees the euro falling against the dollar is hurting the currency. The EU also announced plans to impose 2.8 billion euros worth of tariffs on US imports on Friday. NZD on the other hand is pressured by softer consumer confidence and yesterday’s drop in dairy prices. GBP/USD fell to a fresh 7 month low ahead of a second Brexit vote, this time by the House of Commons on whether Parliament has a final say on the Brexit deal. The vote is expected around 18:30 GMT. While the U.S. releases existing home sales and its current account balance later this morning, the main focus will be on ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Powell and BoJ Governor Kuroda’s comments in Sintra around 13:30 GMT. There’s also a number of OPEC headlines that could affect how the loonie trades. USD/CAD raced above 1.33 this morning and is still trying to figure out whether it has the strength to take out another big figure.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
-GBP
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CHF, -AUD, CAD
+JPY, +USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7388, Stop at .7416, Target .7360
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1563, Stop at 1.1591, Target 1.1535
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0735, Stop at 1.0707, Target 1.0763
4. Sell CHFJPY at 110.32, Stop at 110.60, Target 110.04

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.19.2018 USDCAD, EURJPY, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

President Trump’s threat to impose another 200B in tariffs on China sent ripples throughout the financial markets. Investors are selling equities, currencies and buying Treasuries. Yields are down across the board and Dow futures, which are down 300 points are pointing to a very ugly NY open. The U.S. dollar is up against all of the major currencies except for USD/JPY and this price action is consistent with risk aversion. While China doesn’t want a trade war, they said they aren’t afraid of one, so headline risk is a serious one over the next few trading days. Expect the language to harden and currencies to soften. GBP/USD is trading at a one year low this morning as pound’s troubles are doubled by Brexit complications -- the government refuses to accept
the Parliament’s proposal on the meaningful vote. EUR/USD is trading below 1.15 as ECB Liikanen’s view that rates can remain unchanged after the 2019 if needed compound the currency’s losses. USD/CAD is trading at a fresh 1 year high on the back of falling oil prices but the worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which is down across the board following the RBA minutes which showed concern about the rise in the Australian dollar and its impact on growth and inflation. In other words, risk aversion is being compounded by bad news. Looking ahead, we expect all of the major currencies to remain under pressure with further losses likely.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USDJPY
-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD
+USD (but -USDJPY)
+JPY
neutral CHF, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3270, Stop at 1.3242, Target 1.3298
2. Sell AUDJPY at 80.99, Stop at 81.27, Target 80.71
3. Sell EURJPY at 126.91, Stop at 127.19, Target 126.63

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.15.2018 EURGBP, CHFJPY, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At first glance, it appears that the U.S. dollar is under pressure against all of the major currencies as investors wait for Trump’s list of tariffs on China. However on an intraday basis, USD/JPY is holding onto its gains into the NY open and trying to edge slightly higher. With that in mind, a trade war is bad for everyone and negative for risk appetite so its difficult to imagine that we’ll see significant rallies in currencies today. Canada has the largest decline in 10 year yields which explains why CAD is also the weakest currency but after having breached 1.3150, the pair is due for a correction. EUR is struggling to recapture 1.16 and took hit from reports that Angela Merkel’s government is at the brink as its coalition partner plans to end their alliance. While the currency recovered its initial losses this development should limit the recovery in EUR/USD. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are under pressure with NZD leading the slide after weaker manufacturing PMI numbers. The Yen seems to be unfazed by the Bank of Japan’s lowered CPI assessment. The U.S.’ Empire State manufacturing survey and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report are scheduled for release today but the main focus will be on China tariffs. One of my strongest views today is GBP outperformance.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +USD, +CAD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8730, Stop at .8758, Target .8702
2. Sell CHFJPY at 110.83, Stop at 111.11, target 110.55
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1589, Stop at 1.1617, Target 1.1561
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3140, Stop at 1.3168, Target 1.3112

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT