oday’s Trades 12.13.2017 – EURGBP, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDCAD has been sent

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While today is FOMC day the usual consolidation before the event risk could be thwarted by the CPI report due at 8:30 NY time. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the third time this year but their forward guidance could be limited. The greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies despite a modest increase in U.S. yields. Euro remains under pressure, GBP is up on the back of stronger wage gains while the commodity currencies consolidate. We think USD/CAD is prime for a pullback given its latest price action while AUD and NZD near key resistance.

We have our Wed webinar today and a LIVE FOMC trading session beginning at 1:45PM NY time (15 min before FOMC)

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-USD
+GBP
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -CHF
+CAD, +GBP, +JPY,
mildly -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at market now .8783, Stop at .8811, Target .8755
2. Short NZDCAD at .8928, Stop at .8956, Target .8900
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1737, Stop at 1.1765, Target 1.1709
4. Sell AUDJPY at 85.72, Stop at 86.00, Target 85.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.11.2017 – USDCHF, CADJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies this morning and the losses could accelerate if U.S. yields fall further from current levels. There are no major economic reports on the calendar but this is an exceptionally busy week with 4 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving releases, so we would not be surprised to see pre-positioning. The best performing currency is the New Zealand dollar which jumped over 1% on the selection of a new central bank governor. However the move is overdone and NZD fundamentals remain weak so we have chosen not to join this trade. 10 year UK yields are down more than 5bp this morning and GBP is flat. This misalignment leads us to believe that GBP will fall, catching up to the move in yields as the FX market realizes what the bond market already knows which is that the second round of Brexit negotiations could be tougher than the first.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-USD
-CAD
+CHF
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -CAD,
+EUR, +CHF, +NZD, +JPY, +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at market now .9905, Stop at .9933, Target .9877
2. Sell CADJPY at market now 88.20, Stop at 88.48, Target 87.92
3. Buy EURGBP at .8813, Stop at .8785, Target .8841

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.07.2017 – USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning despite a marginal pullback in U.S. yields. The commodity currencies are the worst performers with CAD extending its slide following yesterday’s Bank of Canada statement. The Australian dollar has slipped on the back of softer trade data. Sterling is the most resilient as investors hope for a Brexit deal. Time is running out for Prime Minister May and the pressure is on for the leader of the UK to strike a deal with the DUP and the EU. With the EU Summit slated for next week, it’s head Brexit negotiator has given Britain 48 hours to agree to a potential deal or risk freezing the talks for the rest of the year. Sterling bulls are optimistic and while we are skeptical of a deal, we see the possibility of GBP recovery today before some selling on Friday. As non-farm payrolls near, USD/JPY comes into play. The pair has found its way back above 112.50 but 113 remains formidable resistance. Jobless claims and the Challenger layoff report are due this morning and while these numbers may only have a limited impact on the greenback, jobs are on everyone’s minds. We expect the dollar to press higher today as other currencies underperform.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+USD
-JPY
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
neutral CAD (fundamentally positive but meeting resistance technically)
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURJPY at market now 132.84, Stop at 132.56, Target 133.12
2. Sell AUDCAD at .9649, Stop at .9677, Target .9621
3. Bought USDJPY at 112.74, Stop 112.47, Target 113.02

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.06.2017 – USDCAD, NZDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

This may be a busy week for the U.S. dollar but once again, we are starting the morning with no clear consistency in the greenback’s performance. The dollar is trading lower against the Japanese Yen and Canadian dollar but higher versus euro, sterling, Swiss Franc and Australian dollar. All of this can be explained by the slide in global equities which is causing the Yen to rise across the board and high beta currencies to fall. Asian equities fell sharply overnight, European stocks are down and the Dow is pointing to a lower open. The most important piece of US data to watch this morning is ADP but the impact of this report is generally short-lived. The Bank of Canada meets this morning and we believe that the loonie will trade lower into and out of BoC. Euro and sterling are both on the back foot but sterling seems to be holding at these levels in the hopes of further Brexit developments. AUD gave up earlier gains following last night’s softer GDP report while NZD continues to sing to its own tune, rebounding on nothing more than profit taking.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-AUD
+CAD
+JPY
mildly +USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -AUD, -CHF
+CAD, +JPY, +NZD
mildly +USD, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCAD at market now 1.2669, Stop at 1.2697, Target 1.2641
2. Sell NZDJPY at 77.27, Stop at 77.55. Target .7699
3. Sell EURUSD at market now 1.1811, Stop at 1.1839, Target 1.1783
4. Sell AUDUSD at market now .7586, Stop at .7614, Target .7558

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.05.2017 – USDCHF, AUDCAD, CADJPY, GBPUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the U.S. dollar’s performance this morning -- the greenback is flat vs. the JPY, up vs. GBP and down vs. EUR and the commodity currencies. The initial uptick in U.S. yields suggests that we may not see additional weakness in the greenback until the ISM report but it remains under pressure for the time being. Although this may be a big week for the buck and today’s non-manufacturing ISM could be meaningful, last night’s Australian data and Reserve Bank rate decision along with Brexit talks had a greater impact on currency trade. While the EU says they are ready to restart talks, Britain is still dealing with their Irish border issue. The Australian dollar on the other hand experienced its strongest 1 day rise in more than a week thanks to stronger data and a less dovish RBA. NZD is in play this morning with a dairy auction on the calendar. The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow and with widespread improvements in Canadian data, we believe the loonie will trade higher ahead of the rate decision. Our strongest view is CAD strength and GBP weakness today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+CAD
-GBP
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+CAD, +CHF, +EUR
-GBP, -JPY
mildly +AUD (may be overextended today)
mildly -USD
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. sell AUDCAD at .9659, Stop at .9687, Target .9631
2. Buy CADJPY at 89.01, Stop at 88.73, Target 89.29
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.3419, Stop at 1.3447, Target 1.3391
4. Sell USDCHF at .9843, Stop at .9871, Target .9815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.01.2017 – USDCHF, EURGBP, AUDUSD, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar this morning because global yields are sharply lower across the board. Political troubles in the U.S, Germany and Britain are making investors weary of the recent rallies. In the U.S., there was alot of confusion about the tax reform deal when a tax increase trigger was ruled as invalid, pushing a vote to Friday. It is still too close to call and investors will be watching the headlines carefully for any updates on the tax vote. Debates begin at 11AM NY Time. In Germany, Angela Merkel is trying to convince the SPD to form a grand coalition but the head of the SPD said he has not given a green light for another coalition as Germany’s European policy must change. In Britain, the Irish border remains a thorny issue and the hard right DUP party has threatened to withdraw their support for May if she offers any compromises on the border. As a result, USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD are all trading lower. The commodity currencies are a bit higher but also giving up on their rallies. Looking ahead, CAD GDP and employment are due for release along with US ISM manufacturing numbers -- we are bearish on all fronts.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
+GBP
+JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -CHF, -AUD
+GBP, +JPY
neutral NZD
mildly -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at .9824, Stop at .9852, Target .9796
2. Sell EURGBP at market now .8812, Stop at .8840, Target .8784
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7566, Stop at .7594, Target .7538
4. Back into EURJPY at 133.69, Stop at 133.97, Target 133.41

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.30.2017 – CHFJPY, AUDCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar may be trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning but the rally is getting overextended and is running up against key resistance. The big news that we expected this week from the Senate is on tax reform and so far, they have voted to advance the bill in the Senate Budget Committee and to proceed with debates. Now the focus is on the final vote which is expected to happen late Thursday or Friday. There are still a host of lawmakers who haven’t said they will back the final bill so it remains to be seen how quickly they will be able to pass it as the vote is still too close to call.
This morning’s U.S. economic reports from personal income, spending to Chicago PMI are expected to be more negative than positive for the greenback. The euro on the other hand appears to be finding support above 1.18 thanks to stronger than expected German labor data. Sterling extended its gains on reports that an agreement on the Irish border is near. The OPEC meeting dominates CAD flows today while AUD and NZD are trying to find a near term bottom.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CHF
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CHF,
+AUD, +CAD, +JPY
mildly +NZD, +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell CHFJPY at market now 113.88, Stop at 114.16, Target 113.60
2. Buy AUDCHF at market now .7464, Stop at .7436, Target .7492
3. Sell AUDCAD at .9753, Stop at .9781, Target .9735
4. Sell USDJPY at 112.31, Stop at 112.59, Target 112.03

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.29.2017 – EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, CADJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Right out of the gate, the best performing currency this morning is sterling, which traded higher against all of the major currencies. It is struggling to extend higher at the start of the NY session but with UK yields up 7bp this morning, a further rally is likely. The greenback is holding bid as well, but the move is being overshadowed by the strength of GBP and stability of EUR. As this morning’s UK and Eurozone economic reports were slightly weaker, the strength of both currencies is purely a function of the market’s renewed interest in European assets. The commodity currencies are mostly lower with the exception of NZD which continues to be driven higher by short covering. German CPI is due for release at 13 GMT followed by US GDP revisions and later the Beige Book report. While all of these numbers could have a meaningful impact on EUR and USD, the thunder could be stolen at any moment by headlines in Washington. We believe that the prospect of tax reform will keep the USD bid and we are also looking for a positive outlook in the Beige Book. Dudley, Yellen and Williams speak today and they are likely to remind us that another rate hike may be necessary.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+GBP
-AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP
-AUD, -JPY
mildly +CAD
neutral CHF, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Bought GBPJPY at market now 149.58, Stop at 149.30, Target 149.86
2. Sell AUDUSD at market now .7578, Stop at .7606, Target .7550
3. Buy CADJPY at 86.98, Stop at 86.70, Target 87.26
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1844, Stop at 1.1816, Target 1.1872

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.28.2017 – EURUSD, USDCAD, EURAUD, GBPCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Today is a very important day in the FX market as we have the BoE, BoC and RBNZ Financial Stability reviews. The Bank’s England’s review saw all 7 banks pass the stress test which led to a brief rally in GBP/USD. The BoE said the tests show all banks can withstand a disorderly exit but acknowledged there would be costs if Brexit is not smooth. However Ireland’s troubles and the mess they create for Brexit continues to pressure sterling lower. A handful of US economic reports are due for release today (the most important is consumer confidence), Fed Chair nominee Powell’s confirmation hearing begins and the US Senate Finance Committee could announce a vote on the Senate version of the tax bill at any time, stealing Powell’s thunder. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against the Yen and European currencies but lower against the commodity currencies. The BoC’s Financial review isn’t expected to reveal anything positive for Canada given recent data deterioration. Euro is on the back foot and likely to remain so for most of the day.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF, -CAD
+AUD, +NZD,
mildly +USD
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2792, Stop at 1.2762, Target 1.2820
2. Sell GBPCHF at 1.3064, Stop at 1.3092, Target 1.3036
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5620, Stop at 1.5648, Target 1.5592
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1889, Stop at 1.1917, Target 1.1871

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.27.2017 – USDJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Currencies are off to a slow start this morning but with U.S. traders back from their long weekend holidays and the U.S. Senate poised to vote on tax reform, this should be an active and busy week for the FX market. We also have a confirmation hearing for Powell, a speech by Yellen, the BoE financial stability report and the possibility of Brexit headlines. The greenback is trading slightly lower across the board as yields give up early gains. This weakness softness should continue as long as there are no positive headlines on taxes this morning. New home sales are due for release and while we think the data could be stronger given the rise in existing home sales, the impact on the greenback should be limited. USD/JPY is very weak and a break of 11.00 would target the 110.50 area. The EUR/USD remains bid though 1.1950 could be a tough barrier to crack. Commodity currencies are stronger across the board and this outperformance is likely to continue in the NY session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+EUR, +GBP, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at market now .8944, Stop at .8972, Target .8916
2. Sell USDJPY at market now 111.15, Stop 111.43, Target 110.87
3. Sell EURCAD at market now 1.5139, stop at 1.5167, Target 1.5111
4. Buy AUDCAD at .9691, Stop at .9663, Target .9719

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Day Trades 11.22.2017 – USDJPY, CADCHF, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting are due for release today and the U.S. dollar is trading lower across the board despite the prospect of hawkish rhetoric. U.S. yields are also up which should be supportive of the greenback but the mighty buck decoupled from rates after Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned against tightening too quickly in her speech last night. Jobless claims, durable goods orders and revisions to the latest University of Michigan Sentiment index are also due for release but the main event will be the FOMC minutes and U.K. Chancellor Hammond’s Autumn budget. Sterling could be sensitive to the latest economic forecasts from OBR and any significant announcements made by the Chancellor. The euro is holding its ground above 1.17, AUD and NZD are attempting to bottom but the moves look fleeting. USD/CAD is below the 20-day SMA, signaling the possibility of further losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -CHF
+USD, +CAD
mildly +AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy CADCHF at .7759, Stop .7731, Target .7787
2. Buy CHFJPY at 113.36, Stop at 113.08, Target 113.64
3. Buy USDJPY at market 112.06, Stop 111.78, Target 112.34

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.21.2017 – EURUSD, EURCAD, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a quiet morning for the euro, dollar and British pound which haven’t seen any major moves despite a pullback in yields. Today’s price action has been marked by mild recoveries in the commodity currencies but for the most part, currencies are marking their time. We still believe that the dollar will extend higher ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes but we have 1 more day of trade (Wed) before prices grind to a halt. We also see further losses in the euro as Germany’s political troubles plague the currency. Today’s existing home sales report won’t have much impact on the dollar and Yellen doesn’t speak until after the NY close though we don’t expect the market to react strongly to her words either. AUD is supported by RBA Governor Lowe’s comments last night. NZD will be affected by today’s dairy auction while CAD could trade lower as NAFTA talks draw to a close.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP,
+AUD, +CAD, +USD
mildly +NZD
neutral JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURJPY at 131.97, Stop at 132.25, Target 131.69
2. Sell EURCAD at 1.5012, Stop at 1.5040, Target 1.4984
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723,, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT