We have now seen the dollar fall approximately 600 pips against the Japanese Yen in just over week. Alarms should be ringing at the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan because the 5% appreciation spells big trouble for Japan’s businesses and economy. However, everything that we have heard from the Japanese government so far suggests that they are not ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to lower the value of their currency. The last time the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency was in 2011 after the earthquake and tsunami (and that was coordinated). Since then we have seen USDJPY fall as low as 76 and average around 102.25 over the past 4 years. So Japan has and can tolerate a stronger yen although they have less flexibility with monetary and fiscal policy because extensive action has already been taken through these years.
While we believe the Japanese government should intervene given the weakness of the currency, there are a number of reasons why they won’t:
- They could be waiting for the G7 meeting
- They could be waiting for fresh fiscal stimulus
- They could be waiting for the markets to capitulate first.
- They could also be looking into monetary stimulus rather than direct intervention to avoid being singled out for competitive devaluation of their currency at the G7 meeting in late May – because the host never wants to be embarrassed.
On a fundamental basis, it is becoming clear that the BoJ could allow USD/JPY to fall to 105 and maybe even 100 before taking action. In early February they let USD/JPY fall close to 1100 pips before there was also indication of intervention. While it has not been confirmed on February 11th, after dropping to a low of 110.98, USD/JPY jumped 200 pips in 20 minutes -- price action that is indicative of intervention. USD/JPY still has 500 pips to go before this capitulation point, which would put the pair right between the 100 and 105 level. However we would be surprised if the BoJ let USD/JPY fall 1000 pips from its March 29th high of 113.80 without checking rates near 105.
On a technical basis, there’s no support in USD/JPY until 106.63, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 to 2015 rally. We expect USD/JPY to test and bounce off this level. However if the Fib is broken then it should be smooth sailing down to 105.85, the 200-month SMA. So while the Bank of Japan could allow USD/JPY to drop 1000 pips from its recent high, there are enough key technical and psychological support levels between now and then to make it a choppy and not one-way move.