Today’s Trades 12.06.2018 EURUSD, EURCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Currencies and equities are trading sharply lower this morning as a convergence of negative news sends risk assets tumbling. The U.S.’ arrest of Huawei’s executive sourS US-China relations and raise concerns about the seriousness of President Trump’s desire to improve the relationship with China. Oil prices are also down more than 2% ahead of the OPEC meeting on talk from Saudi Arabia that no agreement has been made yet to cut production. 10 year Treasury yields are trading below 2.9% and this persistent decline is exacerbating the pressure on USD/JPY. Dow futures are pointing to a sharply lower (-400 point) open and unless today’s economic reports cause a V shaped recovery, risk off will the theme of the day. ADP, Challenger layoffs, jobless claims, non-manufacturing ISM, durable goods and factory orders are scheduled for release. Keep an eye on the headlines too because aside from OPEC, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Poloz, Fed members Quarles, Bostic and Williams are due to speak along with BoE members Broadbent. Given how much the Canadian dollar has fallen and the aggressive reaction to BoC, Governor Poloz’s Economic Progress report at 8:35am will be exceptionally important.s The worst performing currency today is the Australian dollar which was hit hard by Huawei’s developments. Recent data hasn’t been great as a softer than expected trade surplus follows disappointing GDP. AUD also a risk currency that suffers greatly on risk off days. The strongest is the Japanese Yen which should be no surprise but the losses for EUR and GBP are small which tells us that there’s either significant support at 1.13 for EURUSD and 1.27 for GBPUSD or investors are looking at this as an Asia-Pac / US story.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+JPY
-AUD
-CAD
-NZD

Trading Biases

+JPY, +USD (except vs. JPY)
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD
mildly -GBP, +CHF

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCHF at 1.1309, stop at 1.1337, Target 1.1281
2. Sell NZDJPY at 77.36, Stop at 77.64, Target 77.08
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1341, Stop at 1.1369, Target 1.1313

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.17.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are not seeing much consistency in U.S. dollar’s performance this morning as the greenback is trading higher against the European currencies and lower versus the commodity currencies. Sterling is leading the slide as the DUP reiterates their resistance to Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. UK Cabinet Secretary Lidington said its wishful thinking that there could another EU deal so the decision that Parliament has to make is to accept the current deal or vote it down. Investors are worried that these won’t be very palatable options for the many members of the government who struggle with the decision. EUR/USD came close but failed to test 1.13 -- while the single currency remains under pressure and round numbers are often tested in EUR/USD, a very large option expiring today is preventing the pair from breaking through this level. AUD and NZD are surprisingly resilient in the face of mounting pressure from the US on China. Both currencies shrugged off President Trump’s threat of more tariffs and with a much weaker than expected NZ trade balance. The Canadian dollar is flat as oil prices try to stabilize and we see a small bias to the upside during the NY session. As for the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY it could hold onto its gains ahead of the consumer confidence report but the sentiment should lower given the sharp slide in stocks this month.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+CHF
+AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP
+CHF, +JPY, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 128.58, Stop at 128.86, Target 128.30
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5633, Stop at 1.5661, Target 1.5605
3. Sell USDCHF at .9993, Stop at 1.0021, Target .9965
4. Sell GBPCHF at 12731, Stop at 1.2759, Target 1.2703

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Today’s Trades 11.01.2018 USDJPY, EURJPY, CHFJPY, EURCAD

Weekly Calendar Calls

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Short covering flows are strong this morning with most of the major currencies trading higher against the U.S. dollar. Thanks to the much better than expected Australian trade balance and recent tax cuts by the Chinese, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are the best performers. GBP is not far behind as UK Brexit negotiator Raab’s November 21st target for a deal inspires Brexit optimism. The sentiment is so strong that it allowed sterling traders to overlook a weaker UK manufacturing PMI report. Today is an important day for the British pound with a Bank of England monetary policy announcement and Quarterly Inflation Report scheduled for release. No changes are expected from the central bank but adjustments in economic their projections, how MPC members voted and the tone of Governor Carney’s press conference will have a significant impact on GBP. With the currency in short covering mode, a positive outlook should have a more significant impact on sterling than a negative one. Yields are up across the board which should be good for USD/JPY and the yen crosses. Dow futures are also pointing to another positive open for stocks. Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release on Friday so the ISM report and jobless claims will be particularly important. The JPY and CAD are the primary underperformers and we expect this dynamic to continue. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.14 and while its not clear whether this level will break we are inclined to believe that the pair will test this level.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-USD (except for USDJPY)
-JPY
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +NZD
-USD, -JPY, -CAD
mildly +CHF, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 112.96, stop at 112.68, Target 113.24
2. Sell CHFJPY at 112.53, Stop at 112.81, Target 112.25
3. Buy EURCAD at 1.4907, Stop at 1.4879, Target 1.4835
4. Buy EURJPY at 128.46, Stop at 128.18, Target 128.74

Today’s Trades 10.12.2018 NZDJPY, EURNZD, NZDCAD, EURUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After selling off for most of this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Canadian dollar, but that could also change as the morning progresses. The recovery in the greenback is directly tied to the recovery in stocks and the increase in Treasury yields. Asian and European equities rebounded overnight and as of right now, Dow futures are pointing to a strong triple digit open. Market appetite will be the main focus today and not US data because the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is the only major U.S. economic report that is scheduled for release. Last night’s stronger Chinese trade numbers failed to help AUD and NZD which are giving up their gains because the increase was driven entirely by higher exports. Import growth slowed which is negative for Chinese suppliers like Australia and New Zealand. NZD is particularly vulnerable after New Zealand’s Finance Minister endorsed by the slide in NZD by saying he’s “not uncomfortable with the currency level.” The euro has been unable to break 1.16 and is now trading lower despite stronger Eurozone industrial production. USD/CAD wants to break 1.30 and with oil prices rising, that could happen this morning. The strongest currency pair is USD/JPY, which could benefit from a recovery in stocks and GBP is the riskiest as there are reports that Prime Minister May won’t agree to being trapped in a customs union.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-NZD
-AUD
-EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -AUD, -EUR
mildly -GBP, -CHF, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at 73.13, Stop at 73.41, Target 72.85
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.7783, Stop at 1.7755, Target 1.7803
3. Sell NZDCAD at .8475, Stop at .8503, Target .8447
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1583, Stop at 1.1611, Target 1.1554

Today’s Trades 09.19.2018 GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURCAD

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Its a risk on day in FX with all of the majors currencies up from yesterday’s levels. Investors continue to be unfazed by the US-China trade war and based on the strength of the Canadian dollar, they are hopeful that with Canadian foreign minister Freeland back in Washington today, progress can finally be made. The best performing currency is the Australian dollar but the Swiss Franc is not far behind. The Swiss National Bank meets tomorrow and investors are unwinding their long CHF positions on the fear that the central bank will harden their criticism of the currency strength. EUR/CHF hit a 13 month low this month and after riding the reversal for +50 pips in USDCHF for a swing trade, we think there will be further profit taking on long CHF positions during the NY session. Sterling is also up strongly this morning on the back of solid inflation data so +GBPCHF could work too but its high vol. Consumer and producer prices accelerated this month, reinforcing the Bank of England’s optimism. The Japanese Yen is trading lower this morning despite the Bank of Japan’s rosy economic outlook. The BoJ left interest rates unchanged last night and said the economy is expanding moderately despite escalating trade tensions. The main focus today will be on US-Canada trade talks and any other trade related headlines as the US only has housing starts and building permits scheduled for release.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+USD
+CAD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

Trading Biases

+USD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.5138, Stop at 1.5166, Target 1.5110
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.3183, Stop 1.3155, Target 1.3211
3. Buy USDJPY at 112.39, Stop at 112.11, Target 112.67
4. Buy USDCHF at .9675, Stop at .9647 Target .9695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.29.2018 AUDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar down against the euro and up against sterling. There’s not much to explain these moves because what we’ve seen so far today is more euro positive and sterling negative. To be more specific, Italian yields are down, German yields are up which should support the euro. The UK’s Raab is complaining about EU Brexit negotiator Barnier’s availability -- which is another sign that the talks may not be going well but GBP seems to be ignoring the news. The worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which sold off aggressively after Westpac raised its variable mortgage rates by 14bp. This makes home payments more expensive for consumers which tightens their pocketbooks and dampens the RBA’s ability to raise interest rates. The Canadian dollar is in play today with the possibility of some updates from Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland’s trade talks with the US and USD/CAD is bouncing off its lows in anticipation but we think its going to head lower as the day progresses because Canada has no choice but to deal. Canada’s current account balance is also due for release. Revisions to second quarter US GDP and pending home sales are due from the US today -- we don’t expect either of these reports to have a significant impact on the greenback as investors focus on risk appetite and trade headlines.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -AUD, -CHF, -NZD,
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7305, Stop at .7334, Target .7277
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2893, Stop at 1.2865, Target 1.2921
3. Sold AUDCAD at .9949, Stop at .9476, Target .9420
4. Buy USDCHF at .9768, Stop at. 9740, Target .9796

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.28.2018 EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is heading in the NY trading session lower against most of the major currencies. The only currency that is underperforming the greenback is the Japanese Yen. Its weakness along with the resilience of USD/JPY tells us that risk appetite remains strong. US stocks climbed to record highs yesterday and stock futures are pointing to positive open. The Swiss Franc is the best performer but the only reason why the euro isn’t matching the Franc’s rise is because it
took some time for the currency to break 1.17. The euro’s rally is also supported by the pullback in Italian yields and comments from Germany’s foreign minister who said he expects the US to revoke tariff threats. The next stop should be the 100-day SMA near 1.1750. While sterling could also move higher on US dollar weakness, the latest Brexit headlines suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes. Prime Minister May said a no deal Brexit is not the end the world and the UK’s Fox said they made a fair and reasonable offer to the EU. They also said hard Brexit is not off the table. These are not the type of headlines we want to see out of the talks -- UK leaders should be touting progress and the nearing of a deal rather than alternative options. The big focus today are the trade talks between US and Canada. Foreign minister Freeland will be in Washington to resume negotiations and its not clear if we’ll know how the talks went today or tomorrow. The Canadian dollar is trading firmly ahead of the meeting and appears poised for a move down to 1.29. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also extended their gains. US trade and consumer confidence numbers will be released during the NY session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+NZD
+GBP
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD, +GBP
mildly +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1703, stop at 1.1675 Target 1.1731
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2899, Stop at 1.2871, Target 1.2927
3. Sell AUDCHF at .7182, Stop at .7210, Target .7154
4. Sell EURCAD at 1.5137, Stop at 1.5165, Target 1.5109

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.23.2018 EURGBP, EURAUD, USDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading higher this morning ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. We know that Powell and Poloz will be the only central bank leaders attending as Draghi, Carney and Kuroda stay behind. Judging from the price action of USDJPY, investors are cautiously concerned that Powell will talk down the dollar because while USD/JPY is holding onto yesterday’s gains, the greenback is trading lower against all other major currencies. AUD/USD traders may be legitimately satisfied with the political resolution in Australia, but relations between the US and China remain chill as their trade talks end with no real resolution. Although the EURO is trading well today, we are growing increasingly concerned about the currency because Italian bond yields are closing in on their highest level in 4 years. We’re only about 4bp from there. Sterling traded strongly overnight and could experience a further squeeze up to 1.29. Higher oil prices and risk appetite is driving USD/CAD lower with the pair likely to make move down to 1.3050. The New Zealand dollar should follow AUD higher especially after last night’s trade data. The greenback is trading with a softer bias ahead of Powell and the selling pressure could remain in place before the Fed Chair speaks.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-JPY
+GBP
+AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD
+EUR/USD but -EUR vs. other currencies

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.3068, Stop at 1.3096, Target 1.3040
2. Sell EURGBP at .9005, Stop at .9033, Target .8977
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5887, Stop at 1.5915, Target 1.5859
4. Sell USDCHF at .9839, Stop at .9867, Target .9811

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Although the greenback was hit hard in the past 24 hours by President Trump’s criticism of the Fed, they will not affect monetary policy. But it was the perfect excuse for USD bulls to abandon their positions. In the Asia session overnight, the selling gained momentum after EUR/USD broke through 1.15 -- stops were triggered and EUR/USD rallied quickly, taking all of the major currencies higher along with it. However the rally stopped right at the 20-day SMA for EUR/USD and its not clear if the pair will have the momentum to extend beyond that level. The best performing currency this morning is the New Zealand dollar but NZD is vulnerable to losses if dairy prices fail to rise at today’s auction. AUD and CAD are also higher with the loonie likely to gain traction in the North American session for a potential test of 1.30. Last night’s RBA minutes had very little impact on AUD. Brexit talks are underway this morning so GBP could be vulnerable to headline risk but right now it looks like it wants to make a run to 1.2875. Stocks are up, yields are up and oil prices are moving higher -- all signs of a risk on rally.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+AUD
+CAD
+GBP
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-JPY
+AUD, +CAD +GBP, +EUR
mildly +NZD, +CHF
neutral USD but (+USDJPY)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 81.18, stop at 80.90, Target 81.46
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1524, Stop at 1.1496, Target 1.1552
3. Buy CADJPY at 84.68, Stop at 84.40, Target 84.96
4. Sell EURGBP at .8978, stop at .9006, Target .8950

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.08.2018 USDCHF, AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly positive open but currencies are still reeling from last night’s sell-off in Asian equities. Chinese stocks dropped more than 1% as ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tension continues to pressure the markets. The Yuan resumed its slide despite mixed Chinese trade data -- the trade surplus declined but exports and imports increased. All of the Japanese Yen crosses are trading lower, led by the decline in USD/JPY. Now that 111 has been broken, the main levels to watch are 110.80 (50-day SMA) and 110.60 (July 26 low). The weakest currency is sterling which fell to a fresh 11 month low today. GBP/USD has not seen a rally in 7 trading days and with no data to support the currency, investors are focused on the growing risk on a no-deal Brexit. The greenback is mixed and a quiet data day means risk on/risk off will drive dollar flows. EUR and AUD are flat but there’s a good chance that we could see some weakness in the NY session. NZD on the other hand should be quiet with the RBNZ rate decision tonight whereas USD/CAD could struggle underneath 1.31.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
Neutral NZD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9955, Stop at .9927, Target .9983
2. Buy EURCAD at 1.5173, Stop at 1.5145, Target 1.5201
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7412, Stop at. 7440, Target .7384
4. Buy CADJPY at 84.85, Stop at 84.57, Target 85.13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.07.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, EURCAD, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning against the U.S. dollar on the back of gains in Chinese equities. Yields are up, stocks are up and oil is moving higher. After last week’s declines, we’re seeing a turn around on Tuesday. The Australian dollar is leading the gains thanks to a neutral bias of the RBA who sees inflation lower this year but stronger next year. Eurozone data was mixed but investors interpreted the data as positive for the currency and has sent the pair towards 1.16. Germany’s trade surplus increased but exports were flat and industrial production declined. Sterling is up thanks to higher house prices. With no U.S. economic reports on today’s calendar, traders should keep an eye on equities and Treasuries for direction. The trend of dollar weakness that we saw in Europe should carry over to North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF
neutral GBP, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDJPY at 111.20, Stop at 111.48, Target 110.92
2. Buy AUDJPY at 82.66, Stop at 82.38, Target .82.94
3. Long EURCAD at 1.5039, Stop at 1.5011, Target 1.5067
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1590, Stop at 1.1562, Target 1.1618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT