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I’ve often made the argument that there are only two types of trades. Continuation or Reversal. Flow or anti-Flow. Trend or Fade. Call it whatever you want, but whenever anyone places a trade they are always implicitly making a bet that prices will extend in the prior direction or will reverse.
That’s why there is no such thing as a winning strategy. All strategic success depends on a market regime. In trending markets momentum strategies perform great. In choppy markets reversal strategies bank pips. You can do all sorts of things to finesse returns around the edges by using fancy money management techniques, but ultimately if you are caught in the wrong market environment you will get stopped out and sometimes even slaughtered.
They key is not to make things worse. And as traders we often do. That’s because we are obsessed with the idea of a “winning system”. That’s probably the single biggest lie ever told in the trading business. The only guy in the history of the markets who had a “winning system” was Bernie Madoff. For decades he fooled investors that he had the magic formula. And we all know how that turned out.
Indeed the key to winning in trading lies much more in NOT TRADING when the regime is against you than in forcing your system on the market that will chew it up alive. No doubt that’s hard to do with any degree of accuracy ahead of time and that’s why you have to accept the fact your great money making system will lose. Sometimes for days, weeks, even months on end. It does not mean it is not working. It just means it is not working NOW.
These days, I spend 90% of my time trying to figure out the most probable cases of when my set up will fail. Then, I try to studiously avoid making trades during those times. Again that’s not easy and answers change because market conditions change, but even if I can avoid three negative days per month, that could be the difference between winning big or just getting by.
Understanding that there is no such thing as a winning system should also help you to understand that there is no such thing as a winning trade. There is just the set-up and at any given time it can go either way. That’s why great traders trade positions not opinions. Opinions should be made before each trade. In fact, each trade is nothing more than an opinion. Once it’s in the market however, it becomes a position and that position either resolves to profit or a loss.
Most of us, however, develop opinions once the trade is in the market, which means that at that point we are no longer trading but practicing religion by relying on hope and faith. Hope and faith are very powerful human drives but they have nothing to do with trading.
Yet even the most atheist of us have prayed when a trade turned against us, especially if we changed its initial parameters with a post entry “opinion”. In fact the more we’ve changed the initial position the more intense our prayers become.
Tell me -- how’s that worked out for you in the past?
I thought so. The market can be crueler than the meanest of the Greek gods.
That’s why it all starts with understanding that there is no such thing as a winning system. Once you can come to terms with that you can start trading positions not opinions and save your prayers for when they can help.