BK USD/CAD Big Trade Reload 02.25.2016 -77

Swing

2/26 -- BK Big Trade -- Close USD/CAD here at 1.3561 for -77 oil prices have been movingg persistently higher and the correlation between oil / cad appears to have broken for the time being so we’re going to get out and revaluate

BK -- Reload USD/CAD

Buy USD/CAD at market (now 1.3638)

Stop 1.3438

USD/CAD traded lower today despite the 2% decline in oil prices but it is notable that the sell-off stopped right at the 100-day SMA. We believe that a stronger recovery is likely especially with oil prices reversing Wednesday’s rise. We were a bit surprised by yesterday’s reaction to the oil inventory report. Even though refined product inventories fell, the fact of the matter is that crude stockpiles hit a record high. There’s more supply than demand in the market and that is not expected to change any time soon.

AUD/CAD Reload Orders 02.17.2016 +3

Swing

2/18- Close AUD/CAD here at 0.9787 for +3, we’re switching to AUD/USD

***AUD/CAD may move in late asia, early Europe so leave a take profit at 0.9720

Order to Sell AUD/CAD at 0.9790 Triggered

AUD/CAD Reload Orders

Place Order to Sell AUD/CAD at 0.9790

Stop at 0.9990

Pretty ugly AU data. Employment -7.9k vs. +13K expected. Jobless rate rises to 6% from 5.8%. Major losses in full time jobs. This should have continuation. Meanwhile oil continues to move higher in Asia

BK USD/CAD New Reload Orders 02.15.2016

Swing

Big Trade — USD/CAD Reload, New Orders

Place Order to Sell USD/CAD at 1.3835

Stop 1.4035

Oil prices are rose 10% on Friday and another 1% today. USD/CAD should be trading much lower especially with risk on this morning. We haven’t heard anything yet from Saudi Arabia but there’s a lot of hope that OPEC may finally agree to a production cut. Also their lack of denial which usually comes quickly after a misquote leads investors to believe that oil which fell to 12 year lows this past week finally hit an uncle point. While all of the concerns relating to supply and demand are still there, USD/CAD is steady and the sharp rebound in oil should lead to stronger recovery that could take USD/CAD down to 1.38. Technically we believe that the pair is prime for a breakdown. There’s a very clear head and shoulders pattern with the shoulders capping gains right at the 50-day SMA near 1.40. As long as this level of resistance holds, USD/CAD will take aim at 1.38 and make a run for 1.36.

USD/JPY Reload Orders 02.11.2016 +38

Swing

Close USDJPY here 112.12 we will reaod later

+38 on 2nd half of USDJPY trade

***** Take a MUCH smaller position on this given BoJ risk (at least half exposure) -- we plan to close BEFORE Tokyo open

SELL 1/2 lot of USD/JPY at 112.50

Stop 114.50

Bank of Japan intervention rarely works and “call ins” (unconfirmed intervention) such as today to check prices will be dismissed quickly by the market. We think USD/JPY will turn lower once again and make a run below 111. Yellen’s testimony provided no support for dollar bulls and in fact killed the chances of a rate hike in 2016 with Fed fund futures no longer pricing in tightening this year. In our experience, USD/JPY post “intervention” rallies tend to be short-lived.

***This is a speculative no BoJ intervention before Asia (and not likely until we break 110) trade. Its a RISKY one if BoJ intervenes

***** Take a MUCH smaller position on this given BoJ risk (at least half exposure) -- we plan to close BEFORE Tokyo open

BK – New EUR/CAD Reload Orders 11.16.2015 – Orders Canceled

Swing

11/19 -- Cancel EUR/CAD Orders

New EUR/CAD Orders

Place Order to Sell 1 lot EUR/CAD at 1.4292

Place Order to Sell 1 more at 1.4505

Stop for ALL at 1.4680

The Paris bombings are a terrible tragedy for France, Europe and humanity as a whole. Even prior to these attacks, the Eurozone was on shaky footing and given that France is the world’s #1 tourist destination, the impact on the economy will be significant. France could maintain a state of emergency for 3 months, discouraging travel and economic activity and tighter borders across the region could also affect how the rest of the Eurozone performs as well. As a result, these attacks increase the pressure on the ECB to ease, which should lead to further weakness in the euro.

At the same time, the uncertainty and geopolitical risks is positive for oil and if some analysts are right in predicting that this will discourage the Fed from acting next month, oil should trade higher.

BK Big Trade USD/CAD 09.10.2015 +70

Swing

BK -- Closing trades ahead of FOMC. Take Profit on short USD/CAD here at 1.3210 for +70

Order to Sell 1 Lot USD/CAD at 1.3280

**Reload USD/CAD Orders

Place Order to Sell 1 Lot USD/CAD at 1.3280

Place Order to Sell 1 More at 1.3480

Stop for ALL 1.3655

We are reloading our USD/CAD short orders on the premise that there will be profit taking in the U.S. dollar ahead of FOMC. We like selling U.S. dollars against CAD because the loonie is oversold, oil is rebounding and the Bank of Canada’s neutral bias with a tinge of optimism should lift the currency.

BK USD/JPY Big Trade +40

Swing

Out of USD/JPY Trade for +40

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Move to 120.67 to lock in +40 on trade

***USD/JPY Big Trade Second Entry TRIGGERED

***USD/JPY Big Trade First Entry at 120.27 TRIGGERED


BK USD/JPY Big Trade Alert – Time to Reload

***BK USDJPY Big Trade Order Changes

We are moving our USD/JPY entry levels up:

Place Order to Buy 1 lot USDJPY at 120.27

Place Order to Buy 1 More at 118.85

Stop for ALL at 117.75


The Trade:

USD/JPY

Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 118.30

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.90

Stop for ALL 115.35

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

It is time to Buy USD/JPY.

Less hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen should give us an opportunity to snap up USD/JPY at a lower level. While the Fed is in no rush to raise interest rates, Yellen’s optimistic outlook for the economy and inflation leaves a 2015 rate hike on the table.

The recent pullback in the dollar indicates that investors had hoped for more from Yellen but a June rate hike was never realistic. The central bank doesn’t want to raise interest rates too quickly because they fear that a premature increase would undermine the recovery and hamper job healing.

Instead we expect forward guidance to be changed in June and followed up with a rate hike in September. Market expectations had gotten ahead of themselves in recent weeks so a pullback is natural but the most important thing to remember is that the Fed will still raise interest rates in 2015.

Therefore we still think that buying dollars is the best bet and with the latest CFTC data showing a reduction in USD/JPY longs, there’s plenty of opportunity to the upside once the enthusiasm for Fed tightening returns. The next catalyst for a rally in USD/JPY will be next week’s ISM and non-farm payroll reports. If U.S. data starts to improve again, investors will return to the dollar.

The Chart

USDJPY022515

USD/JPY
Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 118.30

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.90

Stop for ALL 115.35