The Healing Power of the Repair Trade

Boris Schlossberg

“When you are shooting a moving target, a shotgun is more useful than a rifle!” Penelope, one of the best traders in my chat room

It’s been a good month of trading in BK. I’ve managed to bank 20% in my own account which is by far the best monthly performance for myself in years, but looking over the trade blotter, I can’t help but appreciate how many times this month my a-- has been saved by the repair trade.

Those of you who have followed me for a long time know that I always trade with a multi-entry approach. My first entry is never my last entry into any trade I take -- be it swing, news or day trade. Of course, you can sneer and say that I am simply averaging down, and as Paul Tudor Jones once famously said, “Only losers average losers.” But while there is great truth to that statement I take exception with calling what I do averaging down.

Typically when traders average down in their positions they do so out of desperation as they try to rescue a losing position. The average down trade is often done reactively with little thought to the overall size and ultimate stop.

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I, on the other hand, always know ahead of time exactly how many entries I will make, exactly how much size I will use and exactly how much risk I will bear. My systematic approach to trading basically assumes that I will be wrong on price but correct on the general vicinity of entry. I think it’s a more humble way of trading because you admit ahead of time that you will likely be wrong. In fact, often you are wrong more than once or twice and yet can still come out a winner by never committing all of your capital to a single price.

If markets are essentially probabilistic entities then it always amazes me why more people don’t trade probabilistically. To me, it’s the height of arrogance to assume that you can pick a price with a degree of certainty greater than 50/50. However, you MAY BE able to prick a price area with a degree of certainty that often approaches 90/10.

Strategies are important, but even the best ones have a very tiny 55/45 edge which can quickly evaporate in the changing environment of market volatility. That’s why to truly improve your trading you need a multi-entry approach and a humble attitude.

You need the healing power of the repair trade.

AUDUSD – Can It Power Through .7500?

AUDUSD – Can It Power Through .7500?

Chart Of The Day

The Aussie went for a roller coaster ride today dropping 30 pips on news that Current Account data came in softer than expected with net exports printing at -0.7% versus -0.4% eyed. This is likely to cause a downward surprise in the GDP reading later tonight. The market is anticipating 0.2% print but it is quite possible that the reading could actually come in negative.

Nevertheless, the Aussie regained all of the losses after RBA reaffirmed its neutral stance in its monthly statement which kept rates at 1.5%. With US yields continuing to compress, the Aussie is benefiting from carry trade flows, but that dynamic will only last if the market believes that the yield is secure. If the GDP data does turn negative, it will create a fresh set of worries about the prospect of further easing and the pair will be vulnerable to further downside shocks and could test the .7400 figure on any miss to the forecast.

Can Cable Power On?

Can Cable Power On?

Chart Of The Day

The currency market has concluded that Brexit is a non event, and as a result cable has rallied through both the 1.4500 and 1.4600 level as traders squeezed the shorts mercilessly. But is the consensus being too complacent?

The latest ICM poll shows the Leave vote up by 2% and as we noted earlier today, “One of the more difficult aspects of political referenda such as these is that people often lie to pollsters about their true intentions, especially if those intentions are aligned against the conventional view. In short many Britons may state one opinion for the pollsters while doing quite the opposite in the privacy of the booth.

Therefore the risks of Brexit may have diminished, but they have not fully disappeared and the recent rally in the pound could quickly change course if market senses any shift towards the Leave camp. Meanwhile the 1.4600 figure could prove to be stiffer resistance as it carries some overhang from February highs. Having had such a strong rally, cable is due for a pause and with all the good news on the Leave side now fully priced in the upside may be limited.”

For now the 1.4700 level should serve as stiff resistance while 1.4500 is the new support.