Today’s Trades 10.12.2018 NZDJPY, EURNZD, NZDCAD, EURUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After selling off for most of this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Canadian dollar, but that could also change as the morning progresses. The recovery in the greenback is directly tied to the recovery in stocks and the increase in Treasury yields. Asian and European equities rebounded overnight and as of right now, Dow futures are pointing to a strong triple digit open. Market appetite will be the main focus today and not US data because the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is the only major U.S. economic report that is scheduled for release. Last night’s stronger Chinese trade numbers failed to help AUD and NZD which are giving up their gains because the increase was driven entirely by higher exports. Import growth slowed which is negative for Chinese suppliers like Australia and New Zealand. NZD is particularly vulnerable after New Zealand’s Finance Minister endorsed by the slide in NZD by saying he’s “not uncomfortable with the currency level.” The euro has been unable to break 1.16 and is now trading lower despite stronger Eurozone industrial production. USD/CAD wants to break 1.30 and with oil prices rising, that could happen this morning. The strongest currency pair is USD/JPY, which could benefit from a recovery in stocks and GBP is the riskiest as there are reports that Prime Minister May won’t agree to being trapped in a customs union.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-NZD
-AUD
-EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -AUD, -EUR
mildly -GBP, -CHF, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at 73.13, Stop at 73.41, Target 72.85
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.7783, Stop at 1.7755, Target 1.7803
3. Sell NZDCAD at .8475, Stop at .8503, Target .8447
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1583, Stop at 1.1611, Target 1.1554

Today’s Trades 07.18.2018 EURJPY, NZDCAD, EURGBP, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On Day 2 of his Congressional testimony, investors expect the same sense of optimism. USD/JPY is hovering just under 113 and while another probe above that level seems imminent, we don’t expect a material extension as the second day of his semi-annual testimony is rarely as market moving as the first. However the Beige Book, scheduled for release in the afternoon should reinforce the dollar’s positive bias. Sterling is under the greatest pressure as inflation growth slows on a consumer and producer level. CPI also fell in the Eurozone causing EURUSD to eye a break of 1.16 and GBP/USD teasing a move below 1.30. With oil prices falling further this morning, USD/CAD will try to break 1.3250. Commodity currencies in general are under pressure and we expect this same underperformance today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Short EURJPY at 131.26, stop at 131.54, Target 130.98
2. Buy NZDCAD at 8955, Stop at .8927, Target .8983
3. Buy EURGBP at .8912, Stop at .8884, Target .8940
4. Sell NZDUSD at .6757, Stop at .6785, Target .6729

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.06.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, NZDCAD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning with EUR/USD above 1.1750, USD/JPY above 110 and GBP/USD above 1.34. Euro is benefitting from ECB comments relating to an earlier taper -- a view that we have emphasized after the 9 cent drop in the euro. Buyers continue to snap up USD/JPY ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Australian dollar also erased yesterday’s losses after a much stronger than expected GDP report. Risk ON is helping to take CAD and NZD higher as well and its no surprise to see the CHF and JPY underperform in a positive market environment like today. Yields are up across the board and equity futures point to a positive open. The Canadian dollar is in playwith trade balance and IVEY PMI reports scheduled for release -- the Bank of Canada’s optimism suggests that we could see firmer numbers. U.S. trade on the other hand could fall short of expectations given the strength of the dollar last month and the drop in the manufacturing ISM report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-CHF
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD
-CHF, -JPY
mildly +GBP, -USD (but +USDJPY)
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8732, Target .8788
2. Sell NZDCAD at .9092, Stop at .9120, target .9064
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.1765, Stop at 1.1737, Target 1.1793
4. Buy EURJPY at 129.65, Stop at 129.37, Target 129.93

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD +28
EURJPY +28
EURAUD
AUDUSD

NZDCAD –  Back to the Lows?

NZDCAD – Back to the Lows?

Chart Of The Day

In a rather butchered syntax, the RBNZ came out on the wires stating that it currently had no plans for unconventional policy (ie QE) anytime in the foreseeable future. The comment was more telling for what it denied rather than what it stated s it revealed that RBNZ is clearly much more preoccupied with easing policy initiatives rather than having any plans to tighten.

On the other hand, BOC meets on May 30th and although the market is only assigning 27% probability to rate hike in May, the bank may offer forward guidance that is more hawkish. Taken together with promising signals on NAFTA deal from President Trump, the loonie looks like a relative bid against the kiwi which suggests that NZDCAD can be headed back towards .8800 in the next several days.

Today’s Trades 04.17.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, CADJPY, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading lower against the U.S. dollar this morning on the back of softer data. The EUR was hit by a lower ZEW survey, GBP fell on the back of weaker earnings, AUD and NZD are pressured by lower industrial production and quarterly GDP growth in China. The U.S. and Canadian dollars are the only ones unaffected so far and the greenback shouldn’t be significantly impacted by this morning’s housing and industrial production reports. Canada has manufacturing sales and the loonie is holding onto its gains ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement. The weakest currency today is NZD followed by the Swiss Franc. With Dow futures pointing to a positive open and U.S. Treasury yields ticking slightly higher, today may be a day of pro rather than anti-risk that could see gains for USD/JPY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-JPY
-GBP
+USD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-EUR, -JPY, -GBP, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy CADJPY at 85.24, stop at 84.96, Target 85.52
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2368, Stop at 1.2396, Target 1.2340
3. Buy EURGBP at .8638, stop at .8610, Target .8662
4. Sell NZDCAD at .9220, Stop at .9248, Target .9192

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.05.2018 – EURGBP, USDCAD, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning thanks to yesterday’s strong reversal in U.S. stocks and overnight strength in Asian and European equities. For what its worth, Dow futures are pointing to a positive open with bond yields up across the board. This should be drive risk currencies higher but is supporting the greenback instead. Part of this has to do with softer UK and EZ PMIs, which have driven euro and sterling lower. USD/JPY made a run for 107 but with the 50-day SMA capping gains, we have not seen much continuation. The commodity currencies are weak but AUD and NZD are trying to come back while the Canadian dollar slips ahead of its trade balance report. There was a big upside surprise in last month’s release which has investors looking for softer numbers. From the U.S., weekly jobless claims and trade balance are scheduled for release but these reports tend to have only limited impact on the greenback.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-CAD
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-CAD, -EUR, -GBP, -JPY
neutral AUD, NZD, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDCAD at .9311, Stop at .9283, Target .9340
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2770, Stop at 1.2742, Target 1.2798
3. Buy EURGBP at .8732, Stop at .8704, Target .8760

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.01.2018 – EURJPY, EURUSD, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The sell-off in Asian and European equities overnight kept currencies under pressure ahead of the North American trading session. Although most of the major currencies consolidated after yesterday’s losses, the sharp slide in Dow futures (which points to a lower open) suggests that the weakness could continue in NY trade. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies except for NZD which is supported by stronger trade data. AUD on the other hand took a hit from weaker manufacturing data. Sterling shrugged off a healthier PMI report as Brexit concerns persist and gilt yields tumble. The euro is also under pressure ahead of this weekend’s elections while the Canadian dollar extends its slide. Stronger than expected Swiss GDP had zero impact on the Franc. The U.S. releases its personal income, spending and ISM manufacturing reports this morning. We are looking for mostly softer data that could extend the slide in USD/JPY, stocks and possibly even risk currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+NZD
+USD (except vs. JPY)
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CAD, -CHF, -AUD
+NZD, +USD, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at 130.00, Stop at 130.28, Target 129.72
2. Buy NZDCAD at .9279, Stop at.9251, Target .9307
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.2173, Stop at 1.2200, Target 1.2145

EURNZD +21 and NZDJPY -5 before posting

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

NZD/CAD Back to 92 Cents?

NZD/CAD Back to 92 Cents?

Chart Of The Day

NZD/CAD Back to 92 Cents?

The New Zealand dollar was this week’s best performing currency thanks to higher dairy prices, stronger labor market data and the central bank’s nonchalant view on the rising currency. Economists expected the jobless rate to rise but instead, employment grew by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, driving the unemployment rate down to 4.5%. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut their GDP forecasts to 0.8% from 1.2% in the first quarter, Deputy Governor Spencer dismissed the rising currency by saying it hasn’t moved too much and they are not concerned about the level. Business PMI is only New Zealand economic report scheduled for release in the coming week and given the currency’s recent strength, it should continue to outperform other major currencies including the Canadian dollar. The loonie fell to its weakest level in 6 weeks on the back of falling oil prices and weaker economic data. Everything from Friday’s labor market report to the trade balance and IVEY PMI index missed expectations. A total of 88K jobs were lost in the month of January. Not only was this significantly worse than the consensus forecast for 10K job growth, but it was also the largest one month loss since 2009. The deterioration was so significant that it drove the unemployment rate back up to 5.9%. USD/CAD shot higher in response but failed to hold onto those gains as investors found some comfort in continued full time job growth. Although 137K part time jobs were lost, 49K full time jobs were added, which could be a sign of a healthy rotation in the labor market. Looking ahead, there are no major Canadian economic reports scheduled for release. USD/CAD has significant resistance near 1.26 so if there’s a time and place for a turn, it would be in the week ahead. A potentially slower rise in USD/CAD (due to resistance) and the outperformance of NZD suggests that we should see further gains in NZD/CAD.

Technically, NZD/CAD is trading back above its 20 and 200-day SMA. This paves the way for continued rally towards 92 cents especially following Thursday’s strong reversal. Should NZD/CAD fall back below Friday’s low of 0.9075, then a move back down to 90 cents becomes more likely.

Today’s Trades 01.24.2018 – NZDCAD +33 pips already banked

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading sharply lower against all of the major currencies today with this new leg down breaking support and resistance levels for many major currencies. USD/JPY is below 110 for the first time since September on U.S. trade war worries and U.S. bond selling as Treasury yields are up sharply today.
Euro and Sterling are very strong with EUR/USD hitting a high of 1.2350 following better than expected PMIs. Sterling is taking out as many stops as it can on the move upwards thanks to stronger than expected wage growth. The commodity currencies are also performing very well with the Australian dollar leading the gains. Its hard to say whether these strong moves will continue in the NY session because of the significant extensions but momentum is certainly on their side. This morning’s US existing home sales report generally does not have a significant impact on the greenback but with no major U.S. data this week and investors sensitive to any positive or negative dollar news, it could lead to a short-lived spike in volatility.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+GBP
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+GBP, +CAD,
mildly +AUD, +NZD
neutral EUR, JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell NZDCAD at .9129, Stop at .9156, Target .9100

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

NZD/CAD Headed Lower

NZD/CAD Headed Lower

Chart Of The Day

NZD/CAD Headed Lower

The next 24 hours will be a busy one for the commodity currencies with New Zealand and Canadian data scheduled for release. The New Zealand dollar has been incredibly resilient in the face of weakening data. Last night’s trade balance report came in significantly lower than expected with the deficit expanding in the month of November instead of contracting like economists anticipated. This does not bode well for tonight’s GDP report as trade activity and consumer spending turned lower in the third quarter. The only thing holding NZD/USD up is risk appetite but if GDP misses like we expect, NZD fundamentals could finally catch up to the currency. In particular, we are looking for against the Canadian dollar ahead of and on the back of tomorrow’s retail sales and consumer price reports. Technically USD/CAD is just beginning to turn and at risk of a deeper decline towards 1.2750. Fundamentally, today’s jump in wholesale sales signals is a sign of healthy demand while the sharp uptick in the price component of the latest IVEY PMI report points to growing price pressures. For these reasons we believe that CPI and retail sales will surprise to the upside. Technically, NZD/CAD’s failed attempt to take out 90 cents puts the pair on course for a move down to 89 cents and possibly even to the 20-SMA near .8850. This month’s high coincides with the 23.6% Fib retracement 2009 to 2016 rally.

oday’s Trades 12.13.2017 – EURGBP, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDCAD has been sent

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While today is FOMC day the usual consolidation before the event risk could be thwarted by the CPI report due at 8:30 NY time. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the third time this year but their forward guidance could be limited. The greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies despite a modest increase in U.S. yields. Euro remains under pressure, GBP is up on the back of stronger wage gains while the commodity currencies consolidate. We think USD/CAD is prime for a pullback given its latest price action while AUD and NZD near key resistance.

We have our Wed webinar today and a LIVE FOMC trading session beginning at 1:45PM NY time (15 min before FOMC)

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-USD
+GBP
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -CHF
+CAD, +GBP, +JPY,
mildly -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at market now .8783, Stop at .8811, Target .8755
2. Short NZDCAD at .8928, Stop at .8956, Target .8900
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1737, Stop at 1.1765, Target 1.1709
4. Sell AUDJPY at 85.72, Stop at 86.00, Target 85.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

NZD/CAD to 88 Cents?

NZD/CAD to 88 Cents?

Chart Of The Day

NZD/CAD to 88 Cents?

NZD/CAD has more room to fall. On a fundamental basis, the New Zealand dollar has recently fallen victim to election uncertainty, lower dairy prices and U.S. dollar strength. These issues will continue to plague the currency after the final votes are counted. The National Party led by Bill English lost 2 seats while the opposition Labour Party led by Jacinda Arden won 1. Both parties need to convince Winston Peters that it is in their interest to form a government which will be a difficult task in the days to come. Peters has said he will make a decision by October 12th but it still not clear whether that will happen. Meanwhile, USD/CAD is losing ground as CAD bulls remain in control. USD/CAD rejected 1.26 on Friday after relatively healthy Canadian data. Although net job growth in Sept was slightly less than anticipated (10K vs. 12K) and the participation rate fell slightly, full time jobs rose at its strongest pace on record. Canada has now experienced its 10th straight month of employment gains and its fastest pace of wage gains in 17 months.

On a technical basis, NZDCAD ended last week at its lows and appears poised for a move down to 88 cents. Gains should be limited by Friday’s high near 0.8950, which is well within our stop limits.