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“When you are shooting a moving target, a shotgun is more useful than a rifle!” Penelope, one of the best traders in my chat room
It’s been a good month of trading in BK. I’ve managed to bank 20% in my own account which is by far the best monthly performance for myself in years, but looking over the trade blotter, I can’t help but appreciate how many times this month my a-- has been saved by the repair trade.
Those of you who have followed me for a long time know that I always trade with a multi-entry approach. My first entry is never my last entry into any trade I take -- be it swing, news or day trade. Of course, you can sneer and say that I am simply averaging down, and as Paul Tudor Jones once famously said, “Only losers average losers.” But while there is great truth to that statement I take exception with calling what I do averaging down.
Typically when traders average down in their positions they do so out of desperation as they try to rescue a losing position. The average down trade is often done reactively with little thought to the overall size and ultimate stop.
I, on the other hand, always know ahead of time exactly how many entries I will make, exactly how much size I will use and exactly how much risk I will bear. My systematic approach to trading basically assumes that I will be wrong on price but correct on the general vicinity of entry. I think it’s a more humble way of trading because you admit ahead of time that you will likely be wrong. In fact, often you are wrong more than once or twice and yet can still come out a winner by never committing all of your capital to a single price.
If markets are essentially probabilistic entities then it always amazes me why more people don’t trade probabilistically. To me, it’s the height of arrogance to assume that you can pick a price with a degree of certainty greater than 50/50. However, you MAY BE able to prick a price area with a degree of certainty that often approaches 90/10.
Strategies are important, but even the best ones have a very tiny 55/45 edge which can quickly evaporate in the changing environment of market volatility. That’s why to truly improve your trading you need a multi-entry approach and a humble attitude.
You need the healing power of the repair trade.